• The ‘Asia Quake’: Will Nepal learn lessons? (Bhagirath Yogi Dec 28 04 )

• Christmas 2004: Praying for Peace (Prakash Dhakal Dec 25 04)

• Postmen in the crossfire (Prakash Dhakal Dec 22 04)

• Can Nepal Bank bell the cat? (Bhagirath Yogi/Prakash Dhakal Dec 21 04 )

The ‘Asia Quake’: Will Nepal learn lessons? (Nepalnews Special Report)

By Bhagirath Yogi

As reports of unprecedented death and destruction continue to pour in from nine countries affected by the devastating undersea earthquake that hit off the Sumatra coast in Indonesia early Sunday, experts and scientists says landlocked Nepal must learn lessons from the latest natural disaster.

“It’s a wake-up call for Nepal.”

Amod Mani Dixit, NSET

“It’s a wake-up call for us,” Amod Mani Dixit, general secretary of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET), a non-governmental organisation promoting awareness and innovating technologies to reduce harm from the earthquake, told Nepalnews Monday.

According to scientists, Nepal lies in the high seismic zone. Four major quakes have already hit the Himalayan region over the last 107 years (see: map) and scientists say a major quake is most likely anytime in the Himalayas.

“Nations in the Himalayan region are at risk of a massive earthquake that could devastate large urban areas in Nepal, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan,” said a study published three years ago (in August 2001) in the renowned American scientific journal, Science.

Authors of the study, geologist Roger Bilham and Peter Molnar of the University of Colorado, and Vinod K. Gaur of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics at Bangalore, warned that at least one earthquake of 8.1 to 8.3 Richter scale in magnitude is `overdue’ along the 2010-km seismically active front of the Himalaya mountains. Such an earthquake could affect up to 50 million people in the densely populated region, the scientists said.

Unfortunately, despite latest technological innovations , scientists can’t predict exactly when and where the quake would hit. “We can not precisely predict when a massive earthquake would occur, but that it could be ‘very soon’ in geologic terms. This means it could occur anytime between now and the next 50 years,” the authors of the study said.

In 1905, an earthquake struck Kangra, a northern Indian town, and caused about 19,000 deaths. If a similar earthquake hit the same town now, the death toll could be 200,000 or more because of the increase in population, say experts.

The massive earthquake (measured 8.4 on the Richter scale) that hit in 1934 (popularly known as `Nabbe Saalko Bhuichalo’) cost lives of over 8,500 people in the Kathmandu valley alone and destroyed over 200,000 structures. The quake even caused destructions in West Bengal and Bihar states of India.

According to a recent study conducted by NSET, if an earthquake of the magnitude of 1934 were to occur again, up to 30,000 people could die and up to 80,000 people could be seriously injured in the Kathmandu valley alone.

Up to 60 percent of the houses in the valley could be destroyed and all kinds of public services including medical, drinking water, transportation, communications and electricity would be badly affected.

“Even our only international airport could be ruptured thereby posing difficulties in getting international relief and other types of assistance,” said Ramesh Kumar Aryal, chief of the National Earthquake Measurement Centre at the Department of Mines and Geology.

Experts say quakes don’t kill people unsafe buildings do. “There is a need to enforce the building code strictly to reduce huge losses of lives and property that could take place in the aftermath of a big earthquake,” says Dixit.

Four years after the 6.5 Richter scale earthquake that hit Nepal (with its epicenter in the eastern hilly district of Udaypur that caused over 700 deaths and destruction of property over Rs five billion), National Building Code Development Project was launched. But it was only after 12 years (in early 2004) that the government finally adopted the code.

Municipal officials, however, admit that the code – that adheres to international norms -- is very strict and that it would be very difficult to implement it in accordance with its letter and spirit.

“The building code has set a number of criteria. In the first phase, we are going to implement it (within the next fortnight) for the big government and commercial buildings. The residential buildings would be brought under the purview of the code only in the second phase,” said Devendra Dangol, chief of the Urban Development Department of the Kathmandu Metropolitan city.

According to an estimate, up to 10,000 houses are built in the Kathmandu valley every year but majority of them are not safe from disasters like earthquake. “By enforcing the building could, we could save at least 60,000 lives every year,” said Dixit.

Officials, on their part, insist that the government is aware of the associated risks and that a mechanism is in place to deal with the natural disaster. “We have got Natural Disaster Rescue Committees under the chairmanship of Chief District Officers in all 75 districts, regional level committees under the chairmanship of regional administrators in all five development regions and a committee headed by the Home Minister at the central level,” said Durga Raj Sharma, under secretary at the Natural Disaster Management division of the Home Ministry.

“We also work in close coordination with NGOs like Nepal Red Cross Society and are in a position to mobilise security forces at a short notice as per the need,” he added.

But the question is: is Nepal in a position to launch and coordinate rescue and rehabilitation programmes at the massive level if, unfortunately, an earthquake of say over 8 Richter scale hit any part of the country.

Photo Source : news.bbc.co.uk

“Western region of Nepal is more earthquake prone and we need to make special arrangements to mobilise rescue team and resources in time,” said Ramesh Kumar Aryal of the National Earthquake Measurement Centre. In fact, a number of districts in western Nepal are yet to be touched by the road network and it is also the region, which is most affected from the on-going Maoist insurgency.

Reports say after the devastating earthquake and tidal waves of Dec. 26, Indonesian authorities have been facing difficulties in launching rescue programmes in insurgency-hit Aceh province while international aid agencies are said to be coordinating with the Tamil Tiger guerrillas of Sri Lanka to launch relief works in the region under their control.

It may seem to many a far-fetched scenario, but the ground reality is that the government would require to urge the rebels to allow rescue and rehabilitation works in the areas affected from natural disaster. Nobody knows if the rebels would respond in positive. A few months back, the rebels ambushed a vehicle carrying security personnel from Butwal that was on its way to rescue passengers who had met with an accident in western Nepal.

Experts say mobilizing community is the first and most reliable tool to launch the rescue and rehabilitation works in the situation of disaster. And, the communities can be best mobilized only when there are popularly elected local leaders. But Nepal is without popularly elected local bodies and a legislature for more than the last two years.

In such a scenario, can we afford talk about a credible disaster management plan?

Of course, we should, say experts. “Disaster risk management is best done if we integrate it into the on-going programme for development. It should not be taken as a stand-alone initiative,” insists Amod Mani Dixit. 

According to Dixit, there is a need to educate general public without creating a panic. “Nepal should exhibit its solidarity with the people who are suffering from Tsunami waves and the government can learn lessons at no cost from this latest disaster,” said Dixit. “We should also assess our capacity and study how rescue and rehabilitation works would be implemented in our neighbourhood,” he added.

Of course, Nepal must learn lessons before it is too late. And, the initiative must come from the civil society—including all of us. nepalnews.com Dec 28 04

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Christmas 2004: Praying for Peace

By Prakash Dhakal

The theme for prayer during this year’s Christmas—for Nepali Christians as well as the expat community—obviously was (the restoration of) peace in Nepal and elsewhere.

Nepali Christians celebrated the Christmas--- birthday of Jesus Christ, Saturday amid escalating anarchy, violence and worsening security situation in the country. Members of the Christian community in Kathmandu and other parts of the country gathered for mass took part in congregation praying Jesus—whom they believe as envoy to world peace—for end of all kind of violence in the country and happiness in their own life.

A well–decorated Christmas trees on the eve of Christmas at Thamel... (More)

"We- the Christian community of Nepal- are so worried looking at the situation in the country that we have been asking our savior to rescue the country from on-going violence not only on the Christmas Day but also in our daily prayers," Seeta Gurung, a Nepali Christian told Nepalnews. 

“During this year’s Christmas, we prayed for wisdom to prevail on the ruling and opposition parties and the Maoists,” said Gurung. "Jesus came to the world to settle disputes and differences among people and I'm sure he would lead the warring factions- the government and Maoists - towards the journey of peace," she added.

Sharada Dahal, a Kathmandu housewife whose husband is a Christian, said her family had been praying to Hindu Gods, Goddesses and Jesus Christ to rescue the country from the on-going violence.

"Though I am not a practicing Christian, I attended mass at the church and prayed for restoration of peace in the country," said Dahal. 

For majority of Christian teenagers and children, Christmas was an opportunity to forget their hectic school schedules and celebrate the festival in high spirits. "I enjoy singing the Christmas carol and love to get presents from my elders on the occasion," said an 11-year old Bikas Thapa.

Lakpa Lama, a youth volunteer at the Gyaneswor Church, said they decided not to hold 'carol singing' at the Church this year due to the precarious security situation in the country. " As most other Christians, I have requested our savior to rescue Nepal from violence," he said. 

According to Lakapa, the celebration of Christmas in Nepal is different than in other western Christian countries. “We do not put Christmas trees in our living rooms or light houses,” he said. 

Christmas has also become a big event not only among Christians but also among people of other faiths. "Though I didn't attend the service in the church I celebrated the world's biggest annual celebration. Its not restricted to Christians alone," Binodh Adhikari, a university graduate living and working in Kathmandu, said.

A British researcher, who was watching this relatively new festival in the world’s only Hindu kingdom, said, "In Nepal, Christmas was the only festival where a Brahmin and dalit (so-called untouchables in the Hindu varna system) can sit and eat together as brothers." 

Sociologists say Hindu caste system is one of the contributing factors to rising number of Christians in the country. 

According to the 2001 census, Christian community in Nepal numbers nearly 102,000, up from only 54 people way back in 1952. However, the Christian community has reservations towards the census data. 

They say the Nepali Christian community is at least 500,000-strong in the country today. Scholars in Christian missions believe that Nepal has one of the fastest-growing Christian populations with over 200 churches alone in the Nepali capital, Kathmandu. 

Despite being a minority, Christian community in Nepal has lived in peace and harmony with people of other faiths and is equally worried at the escalation of violence in the country.

Their singular message for peace is, however, yet to reach to the warring parties in the country. nepalnews.com Dec 25 04

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Postmen in the crossfire

By Prakash Dhakal

Nepal's postal service, which is still the only means of keeping in touch with the rest of the world  for the majority of country's population--  has found itself in the crossfire in the on-going hostilities between the government forces and the rebels.

Sabotage and bombing of post offices, attack on postmen and other postal service staff by the Maoist rebels as well as security forces have cost the country's postal service dearly, cutting off millions of Nepalis in the country from the only accessible means of communications that reached to the doorsteps round the year.

According to the Department of Postal Services (DoPS) in Kathmandu, the Maoist guerrillas have vandalized 656 post offices, including district, ilaka and additional post offices, after the eruption of the Maoist rebellion, causing a total damage of over Rs.54.66 million. There are nearly four thousand post offices, including the additional post offices, across the country.

Though reports about attack, abduction and killing of postmen in Nepal by both the warring sides frequently appear in the national media, officials said they did not have the proper records. "Three postmen and an administrative staff on duty have been killed during the conflict," a senior official at the department said. "We haven't kept record of employees killed off duty," he added.

According to the Department, Bire Saud, Chandra Bahadur Karki and Ramjee Poudel - were killed in Maoist attacks in Achham, Makawanpur and Pokhara respectively while a non-gazetted officer Nanda Bahadur Saud was killed in Achham.

"We have already spent over Rs.46 million for the repair and maintenance of the destroyed postal offices," Indra Basyal, officer at the department said. He said that the prevailing insurgency in the country has severely affected the postal services. "The mobility of our mail carriers has been greatly affected due to the bloody conflict. And, many of our mail carriers have been compelled to live in the district headquarters due to security reasons," he added.

According to an estimate, over five million residents in the hilly, often inaccessible districts of the country, have been affected due to disruption in the postal services. For them, postman was the only means of contact with their relatives living abroad-mainly in India-who delivered their letters at their doorsteps. Only a small proportion of the mail can be delivered via road and by air in Nepal where mountains and hills form over 80 percent of the country's topography. The rest of the mail has to be delivered by the postmen physically. For the last few years,  the rebels have banned their movement in the rural areas suspecting that they could relay their activities back to the district headquarters. On the other hand, there have a number of incidences when the security personnel have shot dead hapless postmen suspecting them to be a Maoist guerrilla carrying a heavy bag.

File Photo : Postal workers carrying out a rally in Kathmandu on the occasion of the World Postal Day. Nepalnews.com/rh

Destruction of road links and suspension bridges by the rebels in remote northern districts has also affected mobility of postmen. "Delivering letters has become a risky  job in mid- western and far-western regions as Maoists threat our postman not to enter into their strongholds," an officer with the DoPS recently transferred to Kathmandu from a mid-western district told Nepalnews. "Currently, access to postal service in the Maoist strongholds is negligible," he added.

Interestingly, the Maoists have developed and are operating their own parallel postal system in their strongholds, reports say. According to an investigative report published in the pro-left Mulyankan monthly magazine, the rebels have set up their own post offices at the village, area and district level.

These `post offices' are used to deliver letters sent by the Maoist cadres or party circulars from one part of the country to another and sometimes are even used to dispatch party's leaders or new workers from one place to another in a safe way. Children below 16 years of age have been founding working as 'postmen,' the magazine reported.

The Maoists have even plans to expand parallel postal services to the local people by introducing their own stamps, the news report said.

Of over 24 million people in Nepal, only 300,000 people have access to the Internet, mostly in the urban areas. Several rural areas in the country either do not have telephone connections or are cut off from phone services due to the Maoist 'revolutionary' activity of targeting telephone repeater towers and other infrastructure.

Lamented an officer at the department, "In 18 year-long insurgency in Sri Lanka not even a single post office was attacked but the postal system is in severe crisis in Nepal. After all, we are equally important for Maoists too," he added. Postal officials insist that postal services should be given an equal status as that of the Red Cross in countries like Nepal where basic services have been affected badly due to the on-going conflict. Unfortunately, human rights community and even the media is not paying enough attention to the plight of the country's thousands of postmen,  let alone the warring factions. nepalnews.com Dec 22 04

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Can Nepal Bank bell the cat?

A week after the Nepal Bank Limited (NBL)—the oldest bank in the country—wrote a strong-worded letter to Kathmandu-based embassies urging them not to issue travel visas to what it said ‘economic renegades involving in commercial terrorism,’ top business houses in the country continue to feel the tremors.

File Photo : Acting Tough: NBL central office at Bhugol Park

In its letter dated Dec. 14, 2004, chief executive officer of the NBL, J Craig Mcallister, wrote to Kathmandu-based missions: “You will in no doubt be aware of HMG/Nepal’s programme to rescind passports of willful loan defaulters who are in effect economic renegades engaging in commercial terrorism to the detriment of Nepali nation. In support of this programme, we would urge you to refrain from granting travel visas to willful loan defaulters.”

The Bank also attached a list of defaulters prepared by the Credit Information Bureau in terms of the Nepal Rastra Bank regulations.

So, what may have prompted the Bank to take this -- what angry businessmen call -- an ‘extreme step’? 

“We have been fighting against the willful bank defaulters at every forum including in the court. It is an additional effort to make them devoid of their privileges, which they are enjoying now,” said Ajay Nepal, public relations officer of the NBL.

Bank sources said they had decided to knock the doors of diplomatic missions based in Kathmandu after witnessing “lack of support from the country’s judicial system.” “What could we do when these businessmen visit Bangkok to undergo massage but refuse to pay their dues to the banks?” asked a senior official of the NBL.

Early this month, the NBL requested the central bank to urge the government to seize the passports of the ‘willful bank defaulters’ as per section 4 of the Passport Act, which says: HMG/Nepal may impound or cancel the passport, that has already been issued, by showing or without showing any reason. The Bank has also urged the Finance Ministry to request the royal palace for its support by removing blacklisted willful defaulters from the list of attendees at palace functions.

A study conducted by Nepal Rastra Bank—the central bank-- three years ago showed that the cumulative loss of the NBL had reeached Rs 7.67 billion and the primary capital of the Bank (worth Rs 4.74 billion) had turned negative.

Seeing the critical situation of the NBL, the central bank took the management of the Bank in its hands and later transferred the Bank’s management to Bank of Scotland, ICC(ICCMT) in  July 2002.

The government owns nearly 41 percent of the Bank’s equity while general public and others own over 54 percent of the equity. Nepal Credit and Commerce Bank Ltd. Owns the rest (4.92 percent)

Under the financial sector reform programme supported by the World Bank, the government transferred management of the two loss-making banks, NBL and Rastriya Banijya Bank (RBB), to foreign management groups. RBB is also said to have non-performing assets (NPAs, also known as `bad loan’)  worth over Rs 14 billion.

As of July 2004, the NBL’s NPA has reached around Rs  9.58 billion (over 34 percent of the total loans disbursed by the Bank.). Of this, the bank has identified loans worth Rs 3.5 billion as non-collectible (such as loans disbursed by corrupt bank officials against the guaranty of riverine land, among others.)

According to the NBL, the new management has been able to recover NPA worth Rs 4.20 billion over the last two years. “This can be considered satisfactory given the present situation in the country,” said Nepal of the NBL.

Senior NBL sources said that business organisations like Golchha and Jyoti were cooperating with the Bank in its effort to recover its loan. The NBL has rescheduled the loan of Eastern Sugar Mills owned by the Golchha Organisation and the banking system received a good money, Bank officials said.

But the Bank is still to recover a huge amount from business houses whom it considers ‘willful bank defaulters.’ For example, Piyush B. Amatya of the Amatya Enterprises, owner of deluxe Fulbari resort in Pokhara, and Mt. Everest Brewery Pvt. Ltd., owes  Rs  2.18 billion to the NBL..

Similarly, Basuling Sugar Mills owes over Rs 440 million to the Bank, Laxmi P. Acharya group  owes  Rs 330 million, Mohan Sahany owes Rs 283.7 million, Bijay Lohani/Mahendra Gartaula owe Rs 213 million, NK Sarraf and his partners owe Rs 185.4 million and Pawan K Khanal owes Rs 105 million.

Arun Chand, son of former Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand, is one of the promoters of the Basuling Sugar Factory.

According to a list of defaulters – obtained by the Nepalnews, the NBL has blacklisted over three dozen big business houses that owe the bank more than Rs 20 million.

Nepali business community—that enjoys strong political support--  has already started lobbying against the NBL’s move. In an interaction organissed in the capital on Sunday, FNCCI office bearers alleged that the NBL’s move had crossed the national norms and rules and was sure to bring negative impact upon the economy.

Talking to Nepalnews Tuesday, first vice president of the FNCCI, Chandi Raj Dhakal, said the NBL move was against the concept of the rule of law. “The Bank should adopt procedural methods instead of `blacklisting’ the businessmen and recommending such harsh measures,” said Dhakal. He further insisted that those who were not able to pay their loans were not the people with ill intentions. “Why is nobody talking about billions of rupees that is being leaked in the course of revenue collections?” he asked.

File Photo : Rajendra Khetan

All don’t agree. A  former member of the NBL board of directors and a leading industrialist,  Rajendra Khetan, insists that at a time when the country’s revenue collection was going up and there had been increase in exports and imports, there could not be any excuse not to pay the bank loan. “People here are buying new houses, vehicles and property but are not willing to pay back loan to the Bank—which, in fact, is the public money,’ said Khetan.

Khetan also demanded that the willful bank defaulters  be investigated by the Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) and criminal cases filed against them. “The government should, however, introduce a rescue package to those entrepreneurs who are facing genuine problems,” he added.

Officials say they are worried about the negative impact on economy due to the huge portfolio of bad loans in the public sector banks. “If the problem couldn’t be addressed in time, it could create a situation something like that of Asian Financial Crisis,” Dr. Shanker Sharma, vice chairman of the National Planning Commission, told Nepalnews.

“The government’s policy is to bring these banks into a state of positive net worth and later privatise them,” said Sharma. He also said that a number of institutional and other  reform activities were being carried out in the NBL and RBB under the new management. “Though a lot needs still to be done, there has been improvement in the performance of these banks  under the foreign management,” he added.

According to reports, the high-level mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—that met the top Nepali officials last week—also raised its concern about the government’s failure in taking effective action against the willful bank defaulters, among others.

Officials at some of the leading Kathmandu-based embassies refused to comment on the issue. Meanwhile, analysts said banking was an important sector in the country’s economy, but that it would not be a good idea to bring in third party from a foreign country on controversies related to commercial transaction between the two parties.

“Tomorrow, carpet, garment, hotels or even media sector would want to drag foreign missions (in cases related to their transactions), which will s et a bad precedent,” said an industry watcher.

It is still early to predict if the NBL’s move will bring intended results. It can. however, be said that it has already ruffled a lot of feathers in the business community---  that remained outside the purview of public scrutiny so far. nepalnews.com Bhagirath Yogi/Prakash Dhakal Dec 21 04 

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