Red Storm Rising?
With communists in majority in the parliament and dominating the cabinet, the red forces are now closing in on Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and his centrist party Nepali Congress (NC).
By Sanjaya Dhakal
A year after the successful restoration of democracy, fissures seem to be widening among the eight party alliance with the leftist forces publicly favouring a new phase of polarisation between them and the democrats.
With communists in majority in the parliament and dominating the cabinet, the red forces are now closing in on Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and his centrist party Nepali Congress (NC).
In the aftermath of derailment of the elections to the Constituent Assembly (CA), around one dozen splinter communist outfits are now making definitive efforts to gang up against the centrist forces.
Having given free rein to Koirala since the restoration of Loktantra last April, the communists have now started to openly doubt his efficacy.
In an obvious move to tell the people that Koirala is no longer irreplaceable, the communist leaders have began a whispering campaign against the octogenarian and ailing prime minister.
While a section of the Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) led by its standing committee member Jhal Nath Khanal has already demanded that Koirala step down, the Maoists have said they may demand his resignation if it becomes clear that the elections cannot be held on time.
The flexing of red muscles became apparent when almost all the speakers at the event organised by the Maoists to mark the Lenin's birth anniversary coinciding with 57 th anniversary of the establishment of Communist Party of Nepal (CPN), on April 22, stressed on the need to seize the opportunity and cement the absolute majority commanded by the communist forces in "the parliament, the cabinet and the street."
"We are now done with waiting for the PM in Baluwatar room," said Madhav Kumar Nepal, general secretary of UML, referring to the PM's habit of turning up late at the eight party meetings summoned at his residence.
"There is now no utility of opening up small shops in the name of communist parties. If we all unite, we can easily defeat the rightists," Nepal declared at the programme.
Senior Maoist leader Dr. Baburam Bhattarai went a step ahead stating that the republic must be ushered in the country at the leadership of communist parties. He hinted that republic under any one else's leadership would serve no purpose. Dr. Bhattarai also accused the Congress and other forces of derailing the CA elections out of fear that communists would win thumping majority.
"Let us fuse the ideologies espoused by late Pushpa Lal, late Madan Bhandari and Prachanda. That would form the basis for larger communist unity," he said.
CP Mainali, a senior communist leader, who currently heads the ULF, even urged his comrades to consider fielding single communist candidate in each constituency by dividing constituencies among the UML, Maoists and smaller leftist outfits proportionally. He said such proposition could ensure communist victory wiping out other parties.
A week ago, on April 16, Maoist chairman Prachanda had dangled a carrot to entice the divided leftist lot. "If there is going to be a single Communist Party of Nepal, we will not let Prachandapath pose any obstruction. Let us do away with all kinds of soubriquets we have attached to the names of our parties. There is no use of attaching tail-names to our parties. Let us make one communist party," he had said referring to the existence of myriad communist parties that have attached tail-names such as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Unity Center, Masal and so on.
At present, there are nearly one dozen communist outfits. The UML and Maoists are the largest communist parties. Between them, the two parties have 11 ministers in the current 22-member cabinet. Two factions of Nepali Congress have nine ministers while one ministerial berth each is shared by Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP-Anandidevi) and United Leftist Front (ULF, which is another leftist outfit).
Similar absolute red domination is manifested in the 329-member strong legislature parliament where leftist forces including the Maoists, UML, ULF, People's Front (PF), Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP) have 182 MPs among themselves while the centrist and liberal democrats have 147 MPs.
The ruling eight party alliance has five communist parties – UML, Maoists, ULF, PF and NWPP. Going by the numbers the communist forces, indeed, enjoy unprecedented domination in the political front, in the parliament and in the cabinet.
Of late, given the continued power-play by Koirala and high-handedness with which he deals with the communist parties, the leaders of the leftist forces have begun to come together. In togetherness, they have started smelling power close by.
Actually, there is no love-lost between Koirala and the communists. K nown as a fierce communist-baiter, Koirala was hounded by the leftists all his life. In the aftermath of restoration of democracy in 1990 after which he became the first elected Prime Minister, Koirala used to lump all Male (then UML), Masale (radical leftist party) and Mandale (regressive elements) together.
It was nothing but the circumstances which pushed the communist parties into accepting Koirala's leadership in the People's Movement II. The wide-ranging acceptability of Koirala – within the country and outside – pushed him as undisputed leader of the ruling alliance as well as the Maoists.
The symbiotic relations between Koirala and communists have continued without any major hitch for one year. While Koirala needed them to broaden his political base, communists needed him to establish international credibility of the peace process.
However, after one year that was full of spectacular progresses and surprising delays in the peace process, the New Year's Eve announcement by Election Commission (EC) regarding its inability to hold the polls within June and subsequent paralysis of the political processes created severe strain on the ruling alliance.
On the Lenin's birth anniversary when communist parties were publicly expressing outrage against Koirala, the latter's own party MPs, however, responded equally bitterly against what they termed as continued Maoist excesses. "Their stalling of the parliament proceedings could affect the unity of eight parties," said Benup Raj Prasai, secretary of the NC parliamentary party.
As tension develops among the ruling alliance, the communists have mulled forming a 'common front' if not 'single party' to defeat other parties. How successful they become in actually materialising such a united front is still doubtful given their history of splitting at the drop of a hat. Just in the past one year, the PF split into three factions – for no apparent ideological logic rather than ego clashes among the leaders. As such, bringing them together will be an uphill task. But the smell of power and the prospect of fulfilling the long-harboured dream of communist supremacy could prove to be too heady a reward.
As the centrist and democratic forces along with the international community watch the recent developments in Nepal with trepidation, what lies ahead in Nepal's store and how soon the clouds of doubt hovering over the prime agenda of CA elections will clear up remains to be seen. nepalnews.com Apr 23 07
(Comments on this write-up can be sent to editors@mos.com.np. The writer can be reached at sandhakal@gmail.com)
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