By Prashant Jha

The Maoist landslide is a wake-up call to the Kathmandu media.

Many thought the former rebels would be a distant third, with 15-20 seats in FPTP. Some argued that the Maoists would do better than the capital's conventional wisdom suggested, giving them about 30-40 seats. And it was only a few exceptions, who sensed the people's desperate yearning for change, the Maoist base among the young and marginalised, and flagged of the possibility of the party coming in second or first.

To be fair, this has taken even the Maoists by surprise. Why did all of us get it so wrong? For one, no elections had taken place for nine years, traditional voting patterns were non-existent, and it was difficult to make sense of a country that had completely changed over the past decade. An armed rebellion, a generational change, left politics, ethnic consciousness, and changing aspirations had complicated easy predictions.

It was thought that the NC's defunct party machine will spring back to life at poll time as usual; the traditional voters, once they reached polling booths, would instinctively vote for the tree; the established faces would be difficult to dislodge; and the disarray among Madhesi parties would prevent the demise of NC in the Tarai. The UML was expected do well because it had the best organisation, had the support of the petty bourgeoisie, and it was felt people may be comfortable with a party that was neither conservative like NC nor radical and violent as Maoists. The fact that civil society across the country is dominated by the UML types did not help, feeding selective information.

But no explanation can hide the fact that the Kathmandu opinion-formers have been insular and disconnected from what is happening in the rest of the country. The results force us to re-examine some of our basic assumptions and the way we have viewed political changes over the past few years.

So how did the Maoists manage to defy all predictions? There was pre-electoral intimidation and violence, and a degree of electoral malpractice on April 10. But that does not help explain the result. The Maoists had run a parallel state for ten years. They have the best organisation, and the most committed cadre which has been hard at work.

This is also an anti-incumbency vote, where the NC and the UML were seen as the key establishment parties. The Koirala dynasty has suffered an arguably irreversible set-back. Sujata will find it tough to stage a political comeback, especially if her father is not around by the time of the next polls. Sushil Koirala's grip over the party machinery will weaken, and there is a possibility of the Deuba faction emerging stronger.

The distant relatives and family confidantes have not fared well either, with Lila Koirala in Janakpur, Mahesh Acharya and Shekhar Koirala in Morang, and Chakra Prasad Bastola in Jhapa voted out. As the NC is all set to lose the disproportionate share of power it has wielded in Kathmandu over the past two years, it would be appropriate to spare a thought for the two men who have helped get the peace process this far - Krishna Prasad Sitaula and Shekhar Koirala. Ironically, Sitaula has been defeated by the Maoists.

The UML, particularly its top leadership, has been routed. The party knows it has to engage in immediate introspection to prevent its demoralised low-level cadre from switching allegiance to the Maoists, and to ensure that the Maoists do not succeed in monopolising the entire left space. The UML will sooner or later have to confront a tough choice - whether to adopt a more confrontational relationship with the Maoists and cosy with NC and conservatives, or ally with the Maoists, albeit as a junior partner.

The Tarai results are only slowly trickling in, and it is difficult to interpret the Madhesi mandate so soon. The Maoists have done well in the pahadi pockets of Tarai. Smart selection of candidates, getting caste calculations right, and engaging constantly with the Dalit votebank has helped the rebels win some Madhesi seats as well. But the Madhesi parties, especially the MJF has taken the largest share. Brand recognition of the 'Forum', a relatively better organisation than TMLP and SP, established faces, support of Yadavs and Tharus in many constituencies in eastern Tarai helped Upendra Yadav's men.

With all three Madhesi parties already winning 20 seats, it is likely they will end up with more than 50-60 seats once the PR tally starts coming in. The results throw up difficult questions: will the antagonistic Maoist-MJF relationship continue to be bitter? Is there a possibility of a tactical relationship between the two on some questions like federalism?

India is in panic mode. From a policy high of seeing successful elections on the evening of April 10, New Delhi was 'depressed' the next day. Completely taken aback, the diplomats are in a tizzy. They have to answer difficult questions to their political leadership about getting it wrong, besides brain storming about what to do next.

There is a danger that some in Delhi may be tempted to subvert the result, try to stitch a NC-UML-Madhesi forces alliance, resort to the Machiavellian manipulative politics to keep the Maoists out. But others know the dangers inherent in ganging up against the former rebels. This school would like to stay the course, and believes there are enough balancing factors to prevent Maoists from rushing through their agenda.

The Maoists have been sober and responsible in victory till now. The cadre has not gone wild, and the leadership has made the right noises reaching out to everyone, including acknowledging the PM's positive role in the peace process. Baburam Bhattarai, possibly in the running for the next PM, has said that decisions will be made in consultations with all other forces.

No one can question the popular legitimacy of the Maoists now. But that enhances their responsibility drastically. The onus lies on the Maoists to lead, within the national framework, in a non-violent manner, respecting fundamental democratic freedoms, and recognising regional and global realities, the path to a new Nepal.

This article has been reproduced here courtesy Nepali Times

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)

Have your say ! (Registration required)