Maoist Victory and Nepal’s Peace Process

The credit for fast forwarding the demise of Nepal’s 240- year old monarchy will be shared by both the Maoists and King Gyanendra, the latter through his reckless campaign to hijack Nepal’s political process by overlooking obvious constraints.

By Pramod K. Kantha

Historic Verdict

The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) has emerged with a commanding lead from the Constituent Assembly Elections. The April 10th elections were largely peaceful and have been hailed by national and international observes as meeting international standards. The Maoists’ electoral performance has stunned every one including perhaps the Maoists themselves. The dismal performance of Nepal’s two major political parties, the Nepali Congress and the Nepal Communist Party (CPN-UML), has been devastating to both parties and their leadership. Nepali Congress Vice President Sushil Koirala and the controversial Home Minister Krishna Sitaula are among the top losers of the Congress party, which has been leading the coalition government since the start of peace process. Upset by the party’s performance and his own defeat, CPN-UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal joined Nepali Congress’s Sushil Koirala in resigning from their respective party’s leadership positions. While the counting will soon decide whether Nepali Congress or the CPN-UML will take the second and third positions, the plain region based Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) has already emerged as the fourth largest party with their victory over a dozen seats.

Republic, the Easiest but Bold Achievement

King Gyanendra is likely to be the instant loser of the successful CA elections. None of the other parties in the ruling alliance made ‘republic’ as defining to their platform as the Maoists. Declaration of republic through parliament was one of the two key demands that led to the Maoists’ boycott of the government in September 2007. They agreed to CA elections only after the interim parliament voted to declare Nepal a republic with the implementation of this provision suspended till the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly. Now that the Maoists have the highest number of seats in the Constituent Assembly, ending Nepal’s monarchy will perhaps be the easiest accomplishment of the first hundred days of the CA. The credit for fast forwarding the demise of Nepal’s 240- year old monarchy will be shared by both the Maoists and King Gyanendra, the latter through his reckless campaign to hijack Nepal’s political process by overlooking obvious constraints.

The New Modus Operandi

The Maoist sweep of the CA elections will necessitate fundamental shifts in the hitherto dynamics of Nepal’s transition politics. Nepal’s new Constituent Assembly will also be its new parliament and the source of its government. Since April 2006, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and his Nepali Congress have run key and sensitive ministries like Home, Defense and Finance. Now it will be difficult to keep the Maoists, the winner of largest seats, from claiming these key portfolios in the new cabinet. This could potentially arouse conflict. The most critical in this context will the relationship between the Maoist leaders and Nepal’s security sector, Nepal Army and the police force. Differences have openly surfaced between the Maoist leaders and Nepal’s military leaders over the Maoist demand for the integration of their roughly 20,000 members of cantoned militia into Nepal’s military. Nepal’s peace process is still to carry out a reconciliation process that would heal the wounds inflicted by the decade long insurgency on both the Maoists and the security forces. Both the Maoists and the military would have to recalibrate their attitude towards each other to avoid open confrontation. The military may find the uncertainty injected by the staggering Maoist victory in the polls allowing it greater national and international leverage to resist policies that will compromise its role as a national force. Excessive zeal on the part of the Maoists to impose their preference on the military could escalate civil-military tension and slow down, if not jeopardize, the transition process.

As for the overall modus operandi between the Maoists and other political parties that shared power before the Constituent Assembly Elections, there is no end yet to a continuing journey along the love-hate highway that all the major partners by now have learned to live with. One needs to remember that for the new CA, governing is secondary to its primary responsibility of drafting a new constitution for the country. The Interim Constitution provides for drafting the new constitution on the basis of all party agreement. In case of failure to do so, adoption of provisions will require 2/3 majority which Maoists are unlikely to command. Thus, mutual cooperation and accommodation will be the wisest but, of course, not the most preferred. The CA will be bound by many of the blueprints on various issues that were negotiated, between the government and various protesting groups in the run up to the CA elections.

The undermined Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal (UML), and the newly emergent political groups including the MPRF will have substantial differences over the structure and powers of central as well as provincial governments that will form Nepal’s new federal structure. By coalescing with each other, Nepal’s political parties have scored an impressive score card and delivered what could be now the fatal blow to an autocratic monarchy. Their biggest test now will be to show that they can stick together and hammer out their differences to craft and stabilise a democratic republic that they have long struggled for. As a corollary of its commanding performance, the onus of leading this reconciliation now will be on the Maoists.

Major milestones in Nepal’s democratic process have resulted from embedded stakes of major players in the political process. The three general elections in the country (1991, 1994 and 1999) proved the ability of Nepal’s two political parties, the Nepali Congress and the Nepal Communist Party (UML) to grow deep roots in the electorate and to remain viable contenders in the corridors of power. The voters by showering dominant stakes on the Maoists through the historic CA elections have mainstreamed the former rebels to lead the process of crafting a stable multiparty democracy. The Maoists will serve their as well as the country’s interests well by doing just that. The winning of this major stake should not be confused as a mandate to take it all.

The author is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio, and could be contacted at pramod.kantha@wright.edu

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)

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