The Early Signs, If Not Disguises, Are Promising

While there isn’t any reason we should doubt the Maoists’ commitments, some disturbing tendencies, YCL behavior for example, are also surfacing which the leadership should nip in the bud. They have difficult challenges in terms of facing the politico-economic and geographic realities of our nation.

By Krishna Poudel

An overwhelming majority of intellectuals, national and foreign media, intelligentsias, and think tanks proved miles away from palpating the sentiment of Nepalese electorate. The so called thinking class held that Nepalese people wouldn’t easily forget and forgive the war (that claimed more than 13000 lives and cost billions of dollars) and wouldn’t buy a communist dream. The desperate effort on the part of the Maoists until the last moment to coordinate with Nepal Communist Party UML explains that the Maoist leadership itself wasn’t expecting such a landslide win. Evidently, Nepali people expressed their will differently. Acknowledging some sporadic incidences of intimidations, it would be hard to sink in the argument that millions of people showed up to vote out of fear as suggested by some CPN-UML leaders as well as by Sher Bahadur Deuba.

Intellectuals and the educated mass, in normative sense, were of the opinion that the Maoists, while they should be established as a peace-time political force, shouldn’t be at the helm of the country. Their apprehension was genuine for their highly populist agenda, recent bloody route and the Maoist identification as utopian communists. In the context of socialist radicalism long proved obsolete for any substantial economic transformation of a society, read China’s U turn in that dimension as a quintessence, if they acted according to their identification, the country could get into far more sinister darkness than the absolute monarchy.

Notwithstanding their brand, to be reasonable, the early signs of the Maoist acts, if not counterfeit, suggest a brighter beginning. Asking for the support and alliance with the former larger parties, assuring the private sector that they are not going to mess with it but support, courting Washington and Delhi, explicitly saying that capitalism is indispensable for economic revolution etc. all are the right things one could ask the Maoist to do.

While there isn’t any reason we should doubt the Maoists’ commitments, some disturbing tendencies, YCL behavior for example, are also surfacing which the leadership should nip in the bud. They have difficult challenges in terms of facing the politico-economic and geographic realities of our nation. Following are some challenges and some approach they should consider to set up a stable politico-economic trajectory for Nepal.

Domestic Front

The Maoists shouldn’t deem this as a ticket for establishing any form of authoritarian design or excess state control. Nor should they be tempted to found a power grid to decimate the opposition. The most immediate step the leadership will have to take, in this connection, is to bridle YCL so that they don’t turn to state protected vigilantes or clearing machines. Taking the former larger parties and the new parties in the board successfully will be extremely prudent political move. The Maoist second-in-command, Dr Baburam Bhattarai, needs to tone down his criticism of the UML and should persuade them back in the government. There are no permanent friends or foes in politics. No one knows that more than Prachanda himself. They will have to build a rapport with the Terai-based parties taking them into confidence while moving ahead.

They will need to show a political maturity in forging the relationship of trust with the armed forces of the country. The good news for them is that Nepal Army has already expressed the will to obey any legitimate government. They have the additional challenge of managing their own army, now in cantonments. For the long run benefit of the country, also as a gesture of accommodation and adaptability, the Maoist should manage the PLA through some alternative ways than insisting on to integrate them with the national army. Pervasive corrupt bureaucracy has always been a major contributor, if not sole, for the pathetic condition of Nepal. Like always, it will attempt to circumvent the new political leadership. Be it reminded that without breaking the neck of this beast it is impossible to dream of any substantial change in Nepal. Yes, it that corrupt and potent.

International Front

Given the scanty credentials, international relation will be more obdurate challenge to the Maoist government for productive engagement with regional and global powers. New Delhi, though shocked, has already said it is willing to work with the Maoist leadership. How qualitative and strong engagement will unfold with Delhi it’s too early to conjecture. A healthy relationship on equal footing is what Nepal has always needed but not acquired. The leadership shouldn’t go too far in appeasing India enabling the ‘South Block’ to interfere in internal affairs of Nepal as in the past. On the other hand, the fact remains as a bitter truth that a helping hand of India is sine quo non for our prosperity, maybe survival too. China has always been fine with any party as long as they possess the legitimacy to rule and don’t deviate too much to the South. It can be anticipated that the Maoist foreign policy will slightly tilt towards North. However, as a nation our best interest is in making most of these two neighbors. The successful navigation through this complex relationship will be even harder for the Maoist leadership for obvious reasons. Their efforts of building some sort of relationship in Europe in past will now pay. Probably relationship with EU will be the easiest one. They can look forward to EU’s cooperation to continue on a normal basis as long as they do not go after doing unwise things in the name of new regime, say curbing the media freedom for example. This relationship, if shaped properly, can prove the bolsters for other international engagements.

The most formidable challenge of the Maoist government will be to engage in positive relationship with the only superpower of the planet, the USA, which still hasn’t lifted them from terrorist list. The fear of the countries like the USA is: the Maoist victory might signal renewed conquest of communism and the possibility of importation. The burden of proving this regime change as just another socialist force coming to the power, not a global hawker of anti-capitalism/anti-Americanism, is on the Maoist shoulder. All Nepalese around the world would like that US extends its support in the realization of new Nepalese dream. To be realistic though, the US will assume wait and see approach for some time, as a probation period. The tone and tenor of engagement between the Maoist government and Washington will depend on how shrewdly the Maoist government takes course over time. The softened rhetoric of the Maoist and their courting to Washington is definitely assuring. Also, the favorable assessment and goodwill token of the former US president Jimmy Carter (who has said that the US should recognize the authenticity of the Maoist and start off an active engagement with them) can work as a bridge in the existing gulf of misgivings.

Economic Front

International economists, as well as development experts, have concluded that for next few decades, BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, China and India) are going to be the growth engines of the global economy. By 2040, our neighbors are all set to be economic powers of the world. Despite the curse of land-lockedness, we couldn’t be better situated - between two of the BRIC. The leadership must make sure we reap the benefit of this location advantage. If we look at the national plan documents of Nepal for last fifty years, they appear the same wine in different bottles, with some twist of words and some patch-up schemes with every successive document. We have been scattering our scarce resources here and there without getting any result. It’s time that we inject a ‘focus’ component in our economic plan. We have more or less idea where to begin with - tourism, hydro-prospecting, service-oriented industry, high-value-low-weight manufacturing etc. More research is needed. President Park Chung-hee of South Korea was responsible for the ‘rags-to-riches’ economic journey of that country. Guess what! The trick was a solid strategic plan of export-oriented industrialization with a constant focus throughout. If you go into a business without a robust strategic plan, if you lose your focus, you are bound to fail. Even an uneducated entrepreneur will tell us that. That’s what we need at this juncture of our country for economic change – a solid strategic plan and unflinching focus. Economic prosperity and capitalism have become synonymous, a world reality, for two fundamental reasons. You cannot create wealth without rewarding the ‘enterprise of an individual’. And, ‘specialization’ is the key you need. Dr Baburam Bhattarai is better positioned to know this than any common Nepali.

Conclusion

At large, the Maoist have so far given the impression that they are listening to the people - that they know where the world is heading. Let’s hope the Maoist leadership is wise enough not to opt out for any kind of zany shake up except the desirable changes. Let’s hope they actually know, not only pay lip service, political change doesn’t carry any meaning if not translated to socio-economic change.

The author is a student of public policy. He lives in the USA currently and can be reached at krishna1380@hotmail.com

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)

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