What Next?
Even though candidates are not very sure whether the election will be held or not as the violence continues to disrupt the poll process, 2191 persons of various political parties and independent candidates have filed their nominations papers for 240 seats for Constituent Assembly. Despite the beginning of the election process, average Nepalis are still worried about the situation of the country and their concern is whether the election will be held and whether the country will have peace. The question remains what next?
By KESHAB POUDEL
Followed by a huge crowd of supporters, candidates of four major political parties Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, CPN-Maoist and RPP filed their nominations on February 25 for the election for Constituent Assembly.
CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal and CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda arrived at the City Hall at the heart of Kathmandu and filed their nomination along with their ten other colleagues (for ten constituencies of the capital district) and hundreds of supporters. Prakash Man Singh, son of Ganesh Man Singh, led the 10 Nepali Congress candidates of Kathmandu.
Similarly, RPP leader Jog Mehar Shrestha led the procession of RPP candidates contesting from Kathmandu. As the political party leaders and their workers came to file nominations, general people have continued to face all kinds of difficulties due to lack of essential commodities.
Although most of the hilly region, which were used to be tense during the last two local elections and parliamentary elections because of Maoist threat remained calm, the violence this time affected the election process in more than a dozen district in the plains of terai. According to police, two were killed and over 600 injured when clashes broke out after protesters tried to bar candidates from filing papers. Under a banner of United Madhesi Democratic Front, an indefinite agitation has been going on in terai. Even the situation in eastern hill were tense particularly in Panchthar, Ilam and Taplejung.
Even if election is not held, a noticeable phenomenon, however, could be the fact that almost all political parties have fielded their candidates in constituencies in terai where Madhesi uprising is in full strength.
Nepali Congress and UML had their large number of candidates of Madhesi origin - so is the case with the Maoists also. This fact indicated that the United Madhesi Democratic Front (UMDF) does not have the sole dominating position in terai. UMDF may have a substantial number of activists behind it but other national parties don't have the dearth of persons to carry their banners in that region.
Whatever might be the fate of election, this itself is a self evidence of competitive political strength of different political parties. If elections are held, the result will expose the reality.
As thirty-nine parties have already filed the closed-list of nomination papers for proportional representation based election and 33 have filed the same for first-past-post-system, the first phase of election process has already begun.
"There is no question to postpone the election. We will not bow down to UMDF's irrational demand," said CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda, who filed his nomination from Kathmandu 10 constituency. "Foreign reactionaries including some from bordering Indian states are making every effort to disrupt the process of revolutionary transformation."
Given the violent situation in southern plain and boycott called by regional parties, average Nepali is worried about the situation of Nepal. The important question is what could be the role of major parties who are running the government and what could be the reaction from both of our neighbors. What response the world community will have in the crisis of Nepal?
"After the elections, the process of forming new democratic Republic Nepal will begin. No force can stop us from doing this," said CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, who filed his nomination from Kathmandu 2 and Rautathat 1 constituencies.
Home minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula who has been leading failed negotiations with UMDF too stressed the need to hold the election on schedule. "There is no other option except to conduct the election as the CA is the only means to bring about durable peace and political stability in the country," said Sitaula.
Major political parties have begun the procedure of election by filing nomination papers even though candidates are not very sure whether the election will be held or not? Everybody is left to reach to a conclusion according to his/her intellect and wisdom.
The situation looks further uncertain when Surya Bahadur Thapa, a very experienced player in politics, has declared that his Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP) will boycott the election expressing solidarity with Madhesi parties.
There came another meaningful move a few days later when another politician of similar caliber and leader of RPP-Nepal Rabindranath Sharma declared that his party, too, will boycott the election. Though both have commonalities in political ideology – being in right from center - there are several differences which have kept them apart.
Drama after Drama
At a time when the situation is becoming more fluid, the government and leaders of agitating parties from terai continued efforts to find the political solution. Just a day before the filing of the nomination, the leader of Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) Upendra Yadav was flown to capital from Birgunj on government helicopter to take part in polls (on the evening of February 24). However, the overnight meeting held at prime minister's residence could not bring any result.
Home minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula, one of the key players of Baluwatar, blamed UMDF leaders for failure to sign any understanding. "When we were on the final stage of signing agreement, UMDF leader Sarbendra Nath Shukla and Upendra Yadav added new demands," Sitaula told the press.
UMDF leaders accused government of showing apathy towards their demands. "We have sacrificed everything for the negotiation but it is the government which has shown complete apathy towards us," said Yadav. "We spared all the night sitting at the sofa in prime minister's residence."
Terai's Demands
One of the major demands of UMDF is to create whole Madhesh as a single province with the right to self determination. Seven party alliance has rejected this demand arguing that this will disintegrate the nation.
"I cannot fulfill the demand creating whole Madhes as a one state no matter what power on this world forces me to do so," said prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala recently. CPN-Maoist leaders are openly accusing Nepal's southern neighbor for meddling in terai.
"By inviting UMDF and Nepali Congress leaders in Embassy premises for negotiations, India has shown how it is meddling in Nepal's internal affairs," said minister of Local Development Dev Gurung. "This kind of interference is unacceptable to us."
At a time when the UMDF's demand for single autonomous region of the whole terai was denounced by all moderate parties in politics arguing that it would inevitably split the country and create a serious disharmony between people of hills and the plain.
At a time when Nepalese politicians have been talking about separating the provinces for particular ethnic groups like Madhesis, it is pertinent here to note the judgment of India's Supreme Court.
In a petition related with leader of Maharastra state, Raj Thackerey, who led a Maharastrian sentiment and extremist movement against north Indians particularly persons from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh – Indian Supreme Court warned that balkanization of country would not be allowed.
The court said, "We can understand what is happening. We will not allow/permit Balkanization of this country." The bench headed by chief justice of India K.G. Balkrishnan said, "this is one country and we will not accept son of soil theory."
"In South Asia, such divisive movements had led to a most violent and hostile situation. The spilt of India into two as India and Pakistan on the basis of religion had gone through a dreadful blood bath in which tens of thousands died and much larger number of people were displaced from both the countries on a sentimental issue of religion," said a political analyst. "After less than twenty five years, Pakistan was split again into two and its eastern territory emerged as an Independent Bangladesh. It also passed through a very serious bloodbath and displacement of families from one side to another".
"Though on a smaller scale, India has also been occasionally facing such sentimental and irrational hostilities between communities some time in Assam and some time in Punjab, Gujarat and Maharastra. Kashmir has its own pathetic story of continuing bloodbath. Sri Lanka is facing the same thing," said the analyst.
Despite such recent history, the political leaders here continue to raise demands. "As the government has already declined to accept our demands, we will wage the struggle for one Madhes one Pradesh. There are no other alternatives to us," said Rajendera Mahato. "We will not allow Pahadis to rule us."
This kind of regionalism and sentimental demand is very new in Nepal. " Nepal was immune from such violence and bloodbath till the emergence of a violent operation on the cover of Maoists .After sacrificing many values and established institutions, Maoist uprising was liberated from that violent operation. Now the next phase of operation is going through the cover of Madhesis. Anybody who has idea about Nepal must have been amazed by this sudden uprising in terai unnerving anybody who has some familiarity with Nepal," said the analyst.
The analyst observed, "People in general had no support of extreme communist doctrine in the past but the whole world was surprised to see a Maoist upsurge in this country. This influence couldn't last at least in terai at present, soon after the Madhesi operation. In due course of time, this Madhesi upsurge may not have lasting influence. One has to go into the depth of the conflict which has its continuation since long. One has to take into account all the variables of internal as well as external politics. Previously, under the Marxist indoctrination, it was told to the people that the country was passing through the class struggle based upon economic stratification. Now the Madhesi uprising is explained as a conflict between people with different origins of hill and terai."
"A heinous operation is going on against Nepal. Unfortunately, politicians in Nepal are ill-informed about broad spectrum of conflict going on in this region. They lack experiences as well as will and character to meet the challenges of the situation. Instead of resisting and countering malicious designs under the changed facets, they find convenient to be used as an instrument to promote that," said the analyst.
Politics in Nepal at present has many catchy jargons for the people but in reality it has become completely amoral and value-free. Rightists are not necessarily on the right side and leftist are not necessarily on the left side. Similarly, persons who are on the lead role raising regional and racial issues are not necessarily convinced with that. "Big players under the cover remain in anonymity and they use their instruments one after another according to their convenience. Despite all these things Nepal has its own inbuilt geo-political advantages which cannot be undone without dangerous consequences to the region," said the analyst.
Therefore, despite filing the nominations, it is beyond the capability of internal players to predict whether there will be peaceful election or another postponement .
Courtesy: Spotlight
(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)
(Registration required)
