Nepal political parties intensify mudslinging amidst CA Poll euphoria

It is even more difficult to foretell that the first sitting of Parliament will actually be able to concur on any major agenda in the first few weeks since the Terai parties through their recent accords with the government are sure to fracture decision making on the Pahade-Terai cleavage.

By Surya B Prasai

Terming each other opportunists, power mongers and untrustworthy coalition pals, Nepali Leftist and Rightist political parties have once again started intensifying their political mudslinging at each other in the run off to the Nepali Constituent Assembly Poll 2008 scheduled on April 10. Nepal’s elections have been termed by the South Asian media as the second most watched event after Pakistan’s recent success in garnering a public vote to a new political coalition. In Nepal’s case, everyone is a bit worried about the reigning insecurity given that the Chief Election Commissioner Dr. Bhoj Raj Pokhrel has met Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala once again to discuss the persisting political tension and violation of the election code of conduct. The Prime Minister has already asked the Nepali disciplined forces to assume a high state of alert.

The Nepali media, in particular, considers such persisting insecurity a definite harbinger to the peaceful polls, worrying both Nepali and foreign observers of the country’s democratic transition process. Actual security threats come from within the political parties, whereby some of the candidates are intensely involved in hijacking, kidnapping, physical assault and tearing down each others’ posters. Candidates are also wearing colorful outfits, some dressed as saffron clothed rishis while others are sporting Che Guevera type shirts emblazoned with slogans that their leftist revolution is not yet over until they capture the future Nepali ‘presidency’. Nearly 1,000 international observers are witnessing this daily colorful drama, where the Nepali people are seen as gearing up for a serious election turnout.

What are the Nepali political parties up to? Even after the co-optation of the decade long Maoist led Nepali civil conflict by Nepal’s Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, who has included them in his cabinet, Nepal’s ultra leftists still appear politically unhappy threatening to call for a peaceful revolution in case they do not muster enough votes to form a majority coalition. Similarly, Nepal’s oldest and most visible democratic party, the Nepali Congress, is also busy wooing moderate to right wing voters, including Monarchy supporters, stating that the seven party coalition must continue working together even after the polls. However, smaller parties like Jan Morcha and the Terai fronts are not so sure. They don’t believe the bigger parties will be so lucky with the voters in the coming CA Poll. While Mr. Koirala has stated he plans to take a permanent siesta from active politics after the CA Polls, Mr. Madhav Kumar Nepal, his leftist opponent, has indirectly shown much interest in becoming Nepal’s next Prime Minister if the leftists manage to grab a major victory. However, seasoned Kathmandu analysts, particularly within NC, hint at Mr. Sher Bahadur as a likely future Prime Minister. He is an agreeable choice candidate being a strong pro-American voice in Nepali politics, a former student president in his Tribhuvan University political activism days, and acceptable to the King, rival NC hats Mr. Koirala and former PM, Mr. Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, and able to contain the challenge of the Leftists boldly.

General Kathmandu diplomatic reckoning however still appears to be, let’s wait and see. Making unusual procrastinations these days are Hindu and Buddhist religious astrologers who appear busy predicting victory to various political figures based on transcendental puja and tantric foresights. Thus, until Nepal’s first Constituent Assembly election is successfully elected, it will be hard to state whether the first sitting of parliament will be able to decide on the future of Monarchy, or adopt a presidential system, which is what the Interim Parliament passed a few months back. If the present trend of everyone claiming victory continues in the 600 seat Nepali Parliament, it might lead to more confusion. Nepal’s future Parliament is already being dubbed the Mother of World Parliaments for a country that is only 54,000 square miles, the tiny size of Tennessee. It is even more difficult to foretell that the first sitting of Parliament will actually be able to concur on any major agenda in the first few weeks since the Terai parties through their recent accords with the government are sure to fracture decision making on the Pahade-Terai cleavage. Mr. Koirala had earlier stated that the Nepal Government would be ready to fulfill the remaining 50% of Terai demands after the CA Poll. But if Mr. Deuba becomes PM, it is unlikely to happen, since he has chided the Terai parties all along.

But that does not signify Nepal’s democracy has gone in vain. For the average Nepali, the achievements are concrete. For instance, Nepal enjoys excellent tourism revenue. In fact, Prime Minister Koirala’s senior foreign policy advisor, Mr. Aditya Baral, a dashing tourism promoter believes Nepal must have its slice of the tourism cake from India and China’s enormously expanding global wealth which has resulted in an unprecedented tourism and aviation boom in South Asia. Another former close advisor to Mr. Koirala and a well informed scholar on Nepali foreign policy, Dr. Suresh R. Chalise, is all serious in capitalizing his role as Nepal’s ambassador to the US by using his position for the benefit of the entire Nepali community in the US. He is the first generation of Nepali ‘laptop’ ambassadors, ensconced in analyzing national, international events and bilateral relations using the Internet to promote more savvy inputs to Kathmandu from the Washington DC end. Mr. Chalise has already made his mark in the past few months in the Nepali and American community by engaging more directly in fostering stronger US-Nepal friendship which has always been excellent and harmonious.

Nepal’s tourism revenue annually stands around US$ 500 million a year and hopefully American travelers visiting Nepal can contribute a lot more by visiting Nepal and staying there longer.

The second good achievement after Jan Andolan -2 has been Nepali migrant remittances which have jumped tremendously by as much as 27% in the past two years. According to Professor Sridhar Khatri, one of Nepal’s few internationally recognized veritable one-stop ‘think tanks’, in one of his papers available on the net, Nepali workers continue working in larger and more lucrative occupational categories in traditional destinations such as the Middle East and East Asia; the numbers will increase in future. Nepal’s official remittance from foreign labor is around US$ 2.5 billion to US$ 3 billion. It is estimated, nearly 60% of remittances are sent through the Hundi system (or informal, proxy end-destination payment where some interest is charged). Coincidentally, Nepalese workers are found working in countries where the US and India have excellent strategic foreign policy ties.

The third major achievement is: USAID and the Nepal Government have managed to organize some power summits in 2006 and 2007, the number of interested foreign companies quadrupling. It appears there will be serious infrastructure investment in Nepal’s hydro power development within the year. The World Bank appears eager to assist and is developing multi-pronged cross-cutting programs tailored specifically to the Nepali context, taking the past civil conflict’s post-transitional period into special consideration.

Amidst these positive economic signs amidst Nepali democratic growth, some foreign observers find it difficult to analyze why the good hearted, innocent looking Nepali people, with such gentle spirits and warm hearts fight amongst themselves on the basis of political beliefs. To give a moral fillip to the peace accords, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon is also planning a visit to Nepal. He might also spend a few days touring outside of Kathmandu, according to some reliable Nepali media sources. The Moon visit is also expected to overhaul UN activities in Nepal and discuss more genuine support and develop more flexibility to Mr. Ian Martin’s UNMIN mission in Nepal. Mr. Martin is considered a sincere Nepal well wisher and friend, has excellent relations with the major political leaders, is considered a good listener, an active peace dialogue seeker, and considered above all, an impartial UN civil servant. However, his UN mission has been facing mounting geo-political pressure to limit the UN’s role in Nepal to development activities only. Recently, Terai Madhes parties which did not sign an accord with the government have once again threatened poll violence, which is a definite irritant to UNMIN’s quiet diplomacy in Kathmandu. The UN maintains a strong development presence in Nepal and has put in nearly US$ 195 million in 2008 program assistance to Nepal. Besides UNMIN, the Carter Center and the European Union are considered important and credible observers on whether the CA Poll result will be validated internationally.

It might be interesting to note in conclusion that Nepal’s Election Commission has taken the first democratic step in the Spring election season by announcing a unique decision that voters can now cast their vote at the election booth furnishing any photo document such as a citizenship card, driving license or government document certifying the person is a Nepali and comes from that particular voting area.

(The author is an independent global strategic communications, media and international development consultant based in Maryland, US and can be reached at just_1_idea@hotmail.com) 

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)

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