‘International Mistrust of the Maoists Could Still Derail The Polls’ - Rabindra Nath Sharma

The president of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP-Nepal), RABINDRA NATH SHARMA  has recently resigned on health grounds. That was not the only ground for his resignation. He was unhappy with the party's decision to contest the CA election. Sharma, who is known for his wide contacts and deep political observation, spoke to KESHAB POUDEL at his residence in Budhanilkantha. Excerpts:

Why did you resign?

I submitted my resignation because of  poor health., although if the party had decided to boycott the election, I would have continued for some more months. RPP-Nepal should not have contested the election. It is going to be counter productive.

Did not you fear that your decision to boycott the election would have been construed as being anti-CA poll?

First of all, I still do not believe that the election will be held in April. Thus there is no sense in deciding  to go for the polls. Secondly, our decision to participate in the election has legitimized the third amendment of the constitution, which has already said that the first meeting of CA will endorse Nepal as a republic. One of the goals of our party is to restore the constitutional monarchy but this election is going to be conducted to uproot the monarchy.

If the situation goes out of control, the army will take over to restore the law and order. At that time India and other international community may support the army with a mandate to hold the election under a civilian government. If the situation goes out of track, India and America will decide which track Nepal needs to follow.

Why are you so  pessimistic about the polls?

The recent statements given by CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda indicate that Maoists will disrupt the polls at the last minute.  There is no history in the world where communists have joined the mainstream power politics through election. In case of Maoists, which is still professing the idea of capturing state power, I don't believe they will contest the election if they think that the result will go against them.

How do you see the actual position of India vis-a-vis the election ?

If the election for CA is held at this point of time, no one will be able to manage it afterwards. It will  trigger prolonged instability and chaos, which will ultimately have spill over effects in India. I don't think any country can support such an unpredictable move, which affects its interests.

You mean, they have miscalculated?

As India shares a long border with Nepal, India's policy makers do not have that kind of luxury to make mistakes. They, too, have limitations. Nepal has been passing through a very critical phase. All forces are trapped in a mess. Even in terai, there is a possibility of internal clashes among various factions. If Indian activities grow in terai, Chinese sensitivities will increase. China will not accept the growing Indian role in Terai.

To change the topic, don't you think an elected body will obey the guideline of non-elected parliament?

I can't believe that the newly elected CA will be independent enough to defy the guidelines of the non-elected parliament. Since all political parties have fielded the same people who passed the earlier amendment, how can they disobey?

As we have seen manipulation in politics, don't you think there will be manipulation in CA?

The present change is also a part of manipulation. But, I cannot say that manipulation will be possible when there will be such a huge crowd of elected members of 600.

Other political parties, international communities including the United States of America and even Nepal's two neighbors have been stressing for the election for CA. Can Maoists dare to defy them?

Every party has their own interest. In politics, it does not matter what you say but it matters how you act. For instance, India has at least four layers of policies on Nepal. It is similar with China and the USA. In the event of  Maoist coming to power, USA and India will change their stand. China, too, is watching carefully.

But, there is also a school of thought that India will accept Maoists if they obliged to fulfill the Indian security interests. Don't you think India can use Maoists to complete its dirty works?

This logic was there in the past when the Maoist insurgency started. Now, the Indian government no longer trusts the Maoists. It is open to all that the Maoists are the product of India. But the Maoists are no longer under India’s complete control. India will not put all its eggs in a single basket including the Maoist basket.  

Why has the Indian position changed now? Is it because of Chinese penetration among the Maoists or something else?

The expression and interest shown by Chinese in the Maoists have  created some uneasiness in India. The recent statements given by Chinese scholars on trouble in terai indicate that they are keenly watching the development in terai.

Do the Chinese trust Maoists?

That is very difficult to say.

If the situation deteriorates further, what would be the reaction of India?

India is not a sole player now, as China has also shown its presence. The United States, European Union and United Nations are also there.

As all political parties have already decided to go for republic, do you see any possibility of retaining the monarchy in Nepal?

As the monarchy has strong backing outside Nepal, political parties' decisions alone are not enough to declare Nepal as a republic. So, there is possibility of retaining some form of monarchy.

What do you mean by outside support?

I mean India. India might have made certain understanding with the king. After mediation by India,  drastic political change took place in April 2006 when the king conceded his power to political parties. India and the king  made certain understanding at that time about the future of monarchy.

How do you evaluate India's position now?

India is afraid of the performance of Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Maoist intention. India is now compelled to reconsider its policies. If there is anarchy, India cannot send its troops into Nepal to restore  stability. In this situation, India needs monarchy to provide stability in Nepal.

If that is so, why Indian policymakers have given up the twin pillar theory?

India still wants to retain the king if monarchy agreed to give maximum concession to serve the Indian interests. All have seen the consequences in Nepal without the presence of strong stabilizing force. In the new equation, a slow and gradual move to boost the  monarchy has already begun.

How will the king act, if monarchy is overthrown?

The king does not have the power to act. If the situation becomes such that the international community have to support the King to bring stability in Nepal, then the king will act.

Will the king  take over the power again to crush the Maoists?

No. If the situation goes out of control, the army will take over to restore the law and order. At that time India and other international community may support the army with a mandate to hold the election under a civilian government. If the situation goes out of track, India and America will decide which track Nepal needs to follow.

Courtesy: Spotlight

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