January 20, 2006

First Step

With the implementation of building code, the government has initiated a major step to avert the human catastrophe in the event of major earthquake

By A CORRESPONDENT

When a rally of children, women and other people passed through the street of Bhaktapur celebrating Earthquake Day on January 15, 2006, Tuicha Dulal, 80, a resident of Kamal Binayak - among a few remaining old people in Bhaktapur to have personally witnessed the devastation of Kathmandu valley during 1934 quake – became worried about the future of people living in his area as well as Kathmandu.

“If the quake similar to 1934 hit the valley again, I will die on the narrow street in search of safe place. All tall houses will collapse just like Dharahara and Ghantaghar,” said Dulal, a former construction worker. “Most of the new houses in Bhaktapur and Kathmandu were erected haphazardly and they are inevitable to collapse. I am surprised to see the demolition of old houses in New Road areas, which were built as earthquake resistant, coinciding with the construction of weak houses.”

Dulal is not a lone person fearing heavy loss of life and property in the valley in case of major earthquake. The message of the earthquake day is also clear as they are disseminating the information that following certain norms in building construction will protect the life and property of people.

There are only a few cities around the world, which is so prone to earthquake, like Kathmandu but it took nearly a decade to implement building codes. Despite threats of major jolts, only diplomats based in the valley and a few other Nepalese have earthquake survival kits ready in their home. Large number of people in the valley have not prepared themselves for the inevitable.

According to seismologists, Kathmandu suffers major earthquake roughly every 70 years and the last one was in 1934. “A quake of the same magnitude today would leave 40,000 dead and 100,000 needing hospital treatment. Ninety-three percent of buildings in the city of about 2 million people do not meet building standards. Although a new building code announced three years ago make it mandatory for public structures, it is yet to be enforced effectively,” said Amod Mani Dixit, general secretary of Nepal Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET).

Thanks to the relentless efforts of Nepal Society for Earthquake Technology – Nepal (NSET), the government finally has implemented building code in the valley. Most buildings can be made earthquake resistant by investing a small amount of money to upgrade certain structures. According to a study conducted by NSET, many government hospitals will collapse in case of major earthquake.

According to earthquake experts, two major factors combine to make Kathmandu particularly vulnerable. The soil of the valley in which it sits is a lakebed that produce high intensity vibrations during a quake. Geologists have identified an area of western Nepal from Pokhara to Deharadun in India as a seismic gap where energy has been building up for at least 200 years.

Recent earthquake in Pakistan and Kashmir has also sent a message around the Himalayan region that they are vulnerable for major earthquakes. “In Nepal ’s Himalayas , the assessment says, there are areas of potential sources of earthquakes that could be as big as 8.3 or 8.4 Richter scale. It will be huge earthquake that could take place in our part at any time and at any day,” said Dixit.

According to NSET, if the earthquake measuring similar to that of the quake of 1934 rocks the valley, it will result in the death of something 35000-40000 within one minute of shaking. There will be 40,000 dead in an earthquake, which could cause the level of shaking as what happened in 1934. 100,000 people will be injured. In terms of damage to infrastructures, 90 percent of the water supply pipeline could get dysfunctional, half of electricity supply could be reduced and 60 percent of bridges will be out of order. Besides, Telephone and mobile will go dysfunctional because their towers and buildings are located in earthquake hazardous zone and their buildings are not earthquake resistance. That will isolate the valley from rest of the world.

How to Minimize the Casualty

One of the ways to minimize the damage is through an effective mechanism in transmitting knowledge about preparedness. By celebrating annual earthquake day, the efforts have already been made to make aware general population and policy makers about the need to take steps to minimize the casualty. Mandatory building code is one of the major achievements.

“I assure that the building codes will be effectively executed at all levels. There is no question of lapses on that,” said second vice chairman of the present government Kirtinidhi Bista. Although the program was organized in Bhaktapur, it was boycotted by locally popular political parties -which has strong political mechanism in Bhaktapur.

Similarly, the Ministry of Health has already developed a strategy for emergency preparedness and other government agencies have been taking similar steps. “The government will work out an emergency plan to cope with the major earthquake,” said Home Minister Kamal Thapa.

Despite all these programs, the perception about the risk in larger population and decision-making is still lacking. More or less the earthquake preparedness has become only an issue for annual earthquake day celebration.