January 20, 2006

By Dr. AB Thapa

Nepal ’s economy is very much dependant on agriculture. Few industries that have appeared in recent years also rely mostly on agriculture based raw materials. Thus agricultural sector occupies the dominant position in our country’s economy and it will continue to be so for a very long time to come in future also. Unfortunately we have not been paying adequate attention to increase our agricultural production.

The staple crop of Nepal is rice. In the past our country was exporting on a large scale rice to our neighbouring countries Even until the mid 1980s Nepal continued to export rice. The volume of export used to be over 100,000 tons per annum. Now the situation has completely reversed. At present we have become a substantial net importer of food grains.

In recent years Nepal’s demand for food grains is steadily increasing whereas the production has remained almost at the same level. Very recently it was estimated that Nepal is only 80 – 85 self sufficient in food grains production. The gap between the demand for food grains and its production is widening due to rapid increase in population. Growing dependence on import of agricultural products has serious adverse impact on country’s economy and hence on country’s trade and industry also.

The problem of growing food grains shortage in our country must be dealt with renewed vigour and determination. We should lay strong emphasis on our national plans to boost agricultural production. It can hardly be denied that for this purpose the potential for area expansion of the cultivated lands is virtually non existent in Nepal. So it would be completely unthinkable to attain our future goals to achieve significant agricultural production increase without vast expansion of irrigation accompanied by improved farming practices Nepal could use its vast water resources to boost agricultural production particular rice crop which is our country’s staple. Development of the Sun-Kosi River would certainly be at the forefront because it has been regarded since almost a half century as the most attractive relatively large scaled project to uplift Nepal ’s agricultural production.

Rice Cultivation

According to one of the theories, the rice cultivation originated as early as 10,000 bc in Asia . Over the centuries it spread to all other Asian countries. It is said that the invading armies of Alexander the Great introduced rice to Greece and nearby Mediterranean countries around 330 bc.

In 1996 Asian countries produced about 90 percent of the 569 million tons of rice grown worldwide. China and India together produce about 55 percent of the world’s rice. Is is a significant agricultural crop in more than 50 other countries. About 96 percent of the rice grown worldwide is consumed in the countries where it is produced, with some exceptions. The United States , for example, exported about 33 percent of the 7.8 million tons it produced in 1996, and Pakistan exported about 27 percent of its 6.4 million tons, according to the FAO. In the same year, Thailand exported significantly more rice than any other country—5.2 million tons, or about 24 percent of its total production, while India exported 3.6 million tons, or about 3 percent of its production. The 25 major rice-importing countries include Japan , China , Saudi Arabia , Kenya , Cuba , Mexico , and Canada . Some rice-importing countries buy rice on a regular basis, others buy when drought, floods, or other conditions reduce the yield of their own rice crop.

FAO Helps Nepal

The necessity of the irrigation development on a large scale in Nepal had been keenly felt since the middle of 1960s. Bearing in mind such necessity of large scale irrigation development, the experts of the Food and Agriculture Organization ( FAO) and the Government of Nepal had carried out the First Phase study of the Sun-Kosi Terai Project in 1965 and 1966 to determine the possibility of irrigation development in the Eastern Terai Plain by diverting the abundant water of the Sun-Kosi River. The Interim Report on Feasibility Study of the Sun-Kosi Terai Project was submitted in October, 1969. The plan to divert the Sun-Kosi River into the Kamla River has been described in that report. The final feasibility report was submitted in October, 1972.

The feasibility report makes it perfectly clear that the people in Nepal are mostly dependant for their food supply and livelihood on a narrow belt of cultivated land in Terai. The potential new land for cultivation is very limited in Nepal. Thus, there is a need to raise agricultural productivity by intensification; i.e. by increasing the average cropping intensity. The Sun-Kosi diversion could help to provide sufficient water round the year to increase the cropping intensity as well as the per hectare yield, as a result, the agricultural production could be substantially increased. Apart from raising the agricultural production, the Sun-Kosi Project would be providing abundant power benefit and also help to save the life and property of millions in Nepal and India from the threat of the devastating future Kosi floods.

Project Area

The Terai Plain consists of the alluvial fans and the recent river deposit which are gently sloped from north to south. The elevations at the foot of the Churia Hills range from 150 to slightly over 200 meters. The plain has gentle slopes ranging from 1/1,000 at the foothills to 1/5,000 at the border line with India. The countless small streams and rivers have their origin in Churia Hills. However, they almost dry up during the non-monsoon seasons.

The Project area lies between the Kosi River and the Indo-Nepal border line at a distance of about 20 km to the west of the Birgung town. Similarly the Churia Foothill is the northern boundary while the Indo-Nepal border the southern. The project area is nearly rectangular in shape. The length is about 240 kilometers and the width varies between 20 and 40 kilometers. The total project area is about 8,500 sq. km. out of it in 1970s when the feasibility study was made the gross cultivated land, reclaimable land, non-reclaimable land (mainly river beds) and forests on flat land were 5,450 sq. km, 570 sq. km, 650 sq. km and 1,870 sq. km respectively.

The project area covers 8 districts of Terai. They are Parsa, Bara, Rautahat, Sarlahi, Mahottari, Dhanukha, Sirha and Saptari. The total population in the project area in early 1970s was about 1,770,000 whereas, according to the Statistical Book published in 1994 by the Central Bureau of Statistics it had increased to about 3,600,000.

Agricultural Studies

Extensive agricultural studies of the whole project area were made in course of the feasibility study. General reconnaissance soil survey of the Eastern Terai plain is one of them. The survey report gives the results of the reconnaissance soil survey covering the entire project area of 540,000 hectares in gross. It was revealed that about 80 percent of the entire area has good soils for irrigation farming belonging to Grade I, II and III according to the USDA standard. No alkalinity or salinity problems exist.

A special pilot farm was set up at Hardinath in Dhanukha district to conduct agronomic studies. Such studies covered cultivation of crops like paddy, wheat, sugar cane, maize, mustard, fodders and other vegetables. Tests were conducted to determine the irrigation water requirement, optimum sowing time, optimum use of fertilizer, selection of best varieties etc.

The River

The Sun-Kosi River is the biggest tributary of the Kosi River . The total drainage area of this river at Tribeni (near Barahachetra ) is 17,960 sq. km. At this point all three main tributaries join and further downstream the river is called the Kosi. Hydrometric records covering the period between the years 1948 and 1967 showed that the yearly mean discharge of the Sun-Kosi River at Tribeni varied between 932 cu. m/sec. and 622 cu. m/sec. The estimated yearly mean discharge of the Sun-Kosi River ( based upon the data at Tribeni ) at the proposed dam site varies between 871 cu. m/sec. and 576 cu. m/sec.

The annual average sediment load of the Sun-Kosi River at Tribeni according to some studies is about 54 million cu. m The annual average sediment load of the Kosi at Tribeni is about 119 million cu. m.

The Sun-Kosi Dam

The FAO had provided Nepal technical and financial assistance to conduct the study of the Sun-Kosi dam project for the agricultural development in the Terai Plain that had three main functions. They were capital formation needed for social investment through the increased income of farmers, sufficient food supply for the whole country, and increased employment in the Terai Plains. The Government of India had also investigated the Sun-Kosi dam site in 1940s. At that time India was exploring the possibility of building the Sun-Kosi dam primarily for controlling the Kosi River floods. The Indian survey team had favoured Kurule dam site on the Sun-Kosi River because it appeared geologically sound and allowed to have a big storage reservoir that extended in Dudh-Kosi and Sun-Kosi valleys. In all subsequent studies that followed thereafter the location for the dam at Kurule has remained unchanged. The site for the Sun-Kosi dam proposed in the FAO supported study is also at Kurule.

The Master Plan study of the Kosi River water resources was made in 1985 by JICA ( Japan Government Agency) team. The Sun-Kosi River diversion for irrigating lands in the Eastern Terai had been identified as one of the top priority projects in the Master Plan study. That study too had adopted the Kurule as the appropriate location for the dam across the Sun-Kosi River to divert it into the Kamla River.

Water Right Issue

The FAO provided assistance to Nepal in revising the 1954 Kosi River Treaty. Dr. Dante A. Caponera, Chief, Legislation Branch of FAO, Rome was in Nepal in 1966. The Kosi Treaty was revised on 19th December, 1966. Nepal 's full right over the Kosi River water has been very clearly explained in the revised treaty. The Article 4 ( i ) of the Treaty related with the water rights has been presented hereinafter:

"HMG shall have every right to withdraw for irrigation and for any other purpose in Nepal water from the Kosi river and from the Sun-Kosi river or within the Kosi basin from any other tributaries of the Kosi river as may be required from time to time. The Union ( it indicates India ) shall have the right to regulate all the balance of supplies in the Kosi river at the barrage site thus available from time to time and to generate power in the Eastern Canal."

In Conclusion

The size of the Sun-Kosi Dam Project is not too big despite the fact that this project could provide colossal benefit to our country. Nepal must divert its full attention to implement as soon as possible this project.

(Dr. Thapa writes on water resources)

People’s War” Hits Economy Badly: ADB

With more than 12,000 people killed and 100,000 displaced, 10-year long Maoist insurgency has not just had a human impact, it has also slowed the poor country’s ailing economy, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “If the conflict is allowed to continue, there will be a lot more social and economic losses. Many more lives will be lost and many more people will be denied the opportunity to improve their livelihood,” Sultan Hafeez Rahman , Nepal ’s ADB country director told AFP. In the 1990s, Nepal ’s annual economic growth averaged around a healthy 4.9 percent but the escalating insurgency saw this drop to an average of 1.9 percent between 2002 and 2004. “Given that this conflict is persisting, and that there are chances it might actually deteriorate, Nepal could lose significantly more than two percentage points of GDP per annum,” Rahman said. “This has very serious implications for not just total GDP and its distribution but also for reduction in poverty in the country.” With 31 percent of the population living below absolute poverty line and with an average income of just less than $300 a year, the troubled Himalayan Kingdom cannot afford this loss. Nepal needs to get economic growth and poverty eradication back on track, and this cannot happen without peace, the ADB official said. An ADB report focused on the fall in development spending in Nepal as a way of measuring economic decline and concluded that in a “high conflict” situation, Nepal could see a GDP growth loss of 10.3 percentage points in the next five years. If the conflict continues at its current level, the growth loss would total 8.3 points, according to ADB economists. “If you are looking at the GDP in per capita terms actually the results are much more stark because Nepal’s population growth is two percent, so if the economy grows at two percent, lets say, then per capital GDP growth is zero,” said Rahman, adding, “This is what happened last year.” Remittances from overseas Nepalese workers have been a saving grace. “Remittances have helped but they cannot nearly offset investment numbers; the orders of magnitude are very different,” he said. “The economic costs of people having died, and people having been displaced from their homes, people who have been handicapped, this takes away not just output today, but output in the future, potential output of the economy.” The solution is simple, according to Rahman. A credible peace dialogue would restore investor confidence and boost markets. “Once this happens, I think that economic activity will tick back. In a very short period of time it can reach growth rates of six percent or more and if they are serious, over a time horizon of maybe 15 years, they can do as well in per capita terms as any South Asian country.” Leading dailies report