YOUNG POPULATION

Changing Dynamism

As young population dominates the overall demographic structure of Nepal , the country faces challenges as well as opportunities ahead. Out of 2.3 million total population, 33 percent are young ones aged between 10-24 years. Unskilled and uneducated, majority of this population can be used as a permanent force for political and economic instability in the country. By throwing their support behind the recent People’s Movement II and bringing the change in society, the group has shown that they can be used as tools of politics or forces of change until and unless the society introduces specific programs to employ them and address their concerns

By KESHAB POUDEL

Sixteen-years-old Pema Lama, a resident of Kalapathar of Dolkha district, 500 miles east of capital, was born a few months after the restoration of democracy in Nepal . A primary school drop-out, Lama is now working as a porter in a trekking agency.  With high hopes and aspirations, Pema took part in the recently concluded People’s Movement II longing for peace, better future, free education, employment opportunities and high salaries.

Working as a porter, Pema makes about Rs. 3000 ($28) a month. He started carrying goods when he was just 12 years old. Intensification of insurgency, closure of schools and family’s economic condition forced Pema to join this job early on in his life.

“I wanted to complete high school education but there was no high school nearby my village. When I was studying at fifth grade, my father asked me to follow his footstep to carry things of foreigners (trekkers),” said Pema.

According to National Census 2001, Nepal ’s population composes of young ones (10-14 years) 13.11 percent, 10.51 percent of those between 15-19 years, and 8.87 percent of those between 20-24 years. Around 7.59 percent of population is aged between 25-29 years.

Interestingly, there is a high prevalence of illiteracy and school drop out among these groups of population. A study conducted by the Ministry of Sports and Education showed that a large number of rural population between these ages are either drop-outs from primary level or illiterate. To encourage the students to continue their education, the government is already providing many incentives, particularly, to the girls. Illiteracy among the young population also helps increase annual population growth.

So far as Nepal is concerned, the country has high growth rate. According to National Census 2001, the growth rate is 2.25 percent. On the basis of age structures, Nepalese population is dominantly younger and every one in three or about 33 percent of population are younger in accordance with the new definition of the World Health Organization. According to WHO definition, the young population is the one aged between 10-24 have with similar demands, aspirations and wishes. According to 2001 census, the women literacy is 42.5 percent compared to average literacy rate of over 50 percent.

“These groups of population have high demands and high aspirations. As long as we do not develop the programs focusing them, this will not only affect economic sector but also the political sector. If we see the recent political agitation, the majority of the participants were young people,” said Dr. Ramhari Aryal, a senior government official at the Ministry of Health and Population and population expert.

Opportunities for Development

What many demographers see in the prevalence of large number of younger population is the opportunity for the economic development provided focused and better programs for them. According to a study conducted by National Planning Commission (NPC) recently, annually more than 300,000 to 400,000 youths land in employment market but Nepal ’s domestic market is too small to accommodate them. In rural areas, majority of young work force is engaged in agricultural sector.

According to the report, there are 14 percent of economically active population that are unemployed. “The tenth plan has something for the youth but it is not enough to accommodate all the youths. If we fail to take necessary steps, this group of population, which can easily turn into boon, may end up as bane to the nation,” said Dr. Shankar Sharma, former vice chairman of National Planning Commission.

Others, too, believe that every country needs younger population for high economic growth. Many developed countries are now facing challenges from aging population and want more young population to sustain their high growth. However, Nepal is struggling to cope with the challenges of huge mass of unskilled and illiterate young population.

“In a demographic term, this is a transition between the initial period of high fertility rate and recent declining fertility. Whenever there is a transition phase of fertility, there will be a large number of young people. This is also known as demographic bonus,” said Dr. Aryal. “We need to convert democratic bonus as the opportunity. This is challenge as well as opportunity. This is a productive composition of the population, so one need not be worried. This group of population can support country’s economic, political and other development. We need to cash this group of population.”

Youths Are Vulnerable

Having t ried several times to go to a foreign country for further studies, Sangam Bhandari,22, a graduate of Baneswor Kathmandu has lost all his hope. Desperate and frustrated Bhandari has seen a long phase of political instability, frequent strikes, lock outs and jams in the streets of capital. From elected government to King’s direct rule and the last three months of the government of revolutionary parties, Bhandari has seen them all but does not feel possibility of any drastic change in terms of economic development.

“This government is politically correct but they too don’t have any specific programs for youths like us. If they don’t bring a new economic package directed to youth, there will be another revolt,” said Bhandari, who took part in the 19-days-long demonstration in April this year that overthrew the royal government.

Sociologists and psychologists, too, see this section as vulnerable and very unpredictable group. “Growing sense of consumerism has already changed the behavior of these groups. Till this group is given due opportunity through generating employment, they will remain a perennial threat for social and political system,” said psychologist Dr. Niranjan Prasad Upadhyaya. “These urban youths have access to all kinds of modern means of communication including radio, newspapers, television and Internet to feed the growing appetite of consumerism.”

“We need to develop focused program for them. This population can also be destructive in case of mis-utilization. They are ends and means of development. We need to exploit this population as a means of development. Don’t think that the population will decline dramatically in coming 30 years. The average age now is 17-18 years but it will move to 24-25 years in the coming decades,” said Dr. Aryal.

Drifting Priority

Although Nepal has several economic, social and development problems, it is now involved in a heated debate over how to make a constitution by holding the elections for Constituent Assembly. As the government and Maoists are yet to announce a long term ceasefire and modality of the constitution is yet to develop, the future is still uncertain.

Thanks to uncertainty over the political system, the country’s overall development programs seem to have been sidelined. In absence of local bodies at the grass root level, even the donors are in a dilemma where to invest their money.

“At a time when the country’s major challenge is to draft a new constitution through the elections of Constituent Assembly, nobody is taking about the need to provide education, employment and other such things to these groups of people,” said an economist. “If the government does not manage this group of population, it will definitely invite more unstable course in future.”

Economists argue that the country must develop stable programs directing at youths. Even during the time of elections and preparation for CA, which may take several years, the political players have to build certain understanding about the youth.

Growing Number of Unemployed

Since the employment opportunities in the country are virtually non-existent and nobody seem concerned about the need to provide jobs, a large number of Nepalese youths are moving to foreign countries for the employment.

According to the Department of Labor, majority of labor leaving for foreign employments are below 24 years old but most of them are unskilled. Although they are highly energetic population, they are low paid because of lack of skills.

Young people do not have any opportunity in Nepal as they have to go to foreign country for employment. The schools are often disturbed by politicization. As Nepal ’s population is going to remain dominantly younger for many more years, more trouble may be created by them in society and political sector if they are not managed well.

There are many youths who are whiling away their time due to lack of jobs. Thanks to taste of modern consumerism generated by mass media, these youths with high hopes and aspirations want their life as compared to the youths of other parts of the world.

Frustrated and desperate, these youth can be used by anybody anytime. In recent agitation, they played an important role in resorting to vandalism.

Sociologists and social psychologists are alarmed over the number of younger population and their defiant characters. As long as the governments take certain policy initiative focused at these youths, the country will have to pay heavy political price.

Unfortunately, this agenda seems to be of nobody’s interest. The country, which is led by seven party alliance that thrived on the strength of youths of schools and colleges, too, is asking them to be patient for the time being.

Longer Period of Youth

The present structure of population will last for another several decades. Although the fertility rate is declining and population growth is in the process of decline, Nepal will not see any major shift in the population structures. According to the demographers, these kinds of population momentum will be there for at least another 30 years.

As there is going to more younger population, the government needs more resources for them. From creating employment opportunities to providing the education facilities and training courses, the state has to manage many things.

The main challenges lying ahead are resources and stability. Nepal , at present, does not have any of the two. The country is already involved in the process of going to the Constituent Assembly, which means that the country may still have to go through prolonged political instability.

One option Nepal has at present is to export surplus youth to gulf and other countries as there are huge demands of Nepalese laborers there. Like all other sectors, the labor migration has also suffered a lot due to uncertainty and question of safety in recent years.

“We have to utilize them in labor migration. We have to start campaigning for safe labor migration. If we provide education to young people, they will automatically be available for use in productive sectors. As the young people have played decisive role in People’s Movement II, they deserve special focus,” said Dr. Ayal.

Rural Urban Gap

There are disparities in opportunities between the rural and urban youths. Because of availability of all kinds of facilities, the younger population in urban areas enjoy almost all benefits of consumerism compared to rural youths. Due to the availability of facilities, education and health services the demographic structure is changing as well.

According to Nepal Population Report 2004, there is already replacement level fertility in urban areas as majority of couple are satisfied with two children. In rural parts of the country, this is still high.

As education and employment can bring a lot of difference in the overall fertility, the expansion of education institution and employment opportunities in the rural parts of the country will have the long-term drastic effect.

As the domination of country’s population structure by youths may last for at least another thirty years, this can be boon as well as bane to the country. If this age of population is not managed properly, they will turn themselves as soldiers of instability. If programs are developed to manage them, they will provide much needed oil to economic engine of the country.

In the present population structure of Nepal, what Gunnar Myrdal said in his book “Asian Drama” about how the growing population raises the expectation of society seem quite valid. Growing population poses both challenges and opportunities. Challenges for management and opportunities for development.