“We Are In Transition Between High Fertility And Declining Fertility”
-- DR. RAMHARI ARYAL
DR. RAMHARI ARYAL , division chief of Ministry of Health and Population, has a long experience in population management sector. At a time when Nepal ’s population is going through the phase of transformation, Dr. Aryal spoke to SPOTLIGHT on various aspects of changing dynamic of demography. Excerpts:
How do you see the status of population?
When we look at the population of any country, we have to see three things. First is the structure of population, second is growth and third is distribution. So far as Nepal is concerned, the country has a very high growth rate. According to National Census 2001, the growth rate is 2.25 percent.
What about the status of young population?
On the basis of structure, Nepalese population is dominantly younger and every one in three or about 33 percent of population are younger in accordance with the new definition of the World Health Organization (WHO), which defines the younger population (10-24) with similar demands, aspirations and wishes. This group of population has high demand and high aspirations. As long as we do not develop the programs focusing them, this will not only affect economic sector but also the political sector. If we see the recent political agitation, the majority of the participants were young people.
What is the situation of fertility?
In a demographic sense, this is a transition between the initial period of high fertility rate and recent declining fertility. Whenever there is a transition phase of fertility, there will be a large number of young people. This is also known as demographic bonus. We need to convert democratic bonus as opportunity. This is challenge as well as opportunity. This is a productive composition of the population so one need not to be worried. This group of population can support country’s economic, political and other development. We need to cash this group of population. This is a vulnerable group also. We need to develop focused program for them. This population can also be destructive in case of mis-utilization. They are ends and means of development. We need to exploit this population as a means of development. Don’t think that the population will decline dramatically in coming 30 years. The average age of Nepalese population now is 17-18 but it will move to 24-25 years in coming decades.
How long will this group of population last?
This phenomenon is also known as a population momentum. It has already gained the momentum as the fertility decline has begun. According to the demographic theories, these kinds of population momentum will be there at least for another 30 years.
How do you see the speed of fertility decline?
The fertility transition has already begun and once it starts to decline it will never return to previous position. In many developed countries, fertility continues to decline and it is now in negative. Once it starts declining, it cannot go back. In 1976, our fertility was 6.3 but now it is 4.1. Although the speed of declining fertility is slow, it is in the process of declining.
Where can Nepalese youth be employed?
There are huge demands of Nepalese labor in international market. We have to utilize them in labor migration. We have to start campaigning for safe labor migration. If we provide education to young people, they will automatically be available for use in productive sectors. As the young people have played decisive role in People’s Movement II, they deserve special focus.
How is the urban-rural gap in population?
There is a huge gap in urban and rural population composition. In urban areas, there is already replacement level fertility. It means most of the couple have just two children. In rural areas, this is still higher. So our focus should be to reach out to rural areas. We cannot reduce the population just by dispatching contraceptives in the rural areas. There is a need to change the mentality of people and create the environment for its use. There is a need for behavior change. Education and employments have made a lot of difference in the overall fertility. We have our own traditional value system. There is still priority for baby boy. If population continues to grow by 2.25 percent, our population will double in the next thirty one years. The distribution of population is urban oriented. This is concentrated in urban areas and it is difficult to sustain.
