Lesson From Pakistan
Nepal can learn many lessons from Pakistan , which is on a high growth path
By KESHAB POUDEL
Different people in Nepal have different opinions about Pakistan . Following the royal takeover in February 1, 2005 , some Nepalese linked Nepal 's situation with that of Pakistan as it too had gone through similar political course as Nepal had in the past.
Ruled by fractured and chaotic political parties, Pakistan 's economy was virtually in the process of bankruptcy when the new military regime of President General Parvez Musharraf took over the power.
Interestingly, only a few Nepalese have noticed what economic miracle Pakistan has performed in Asia - as it is next only to China to have a sustained high economic growth rate. According to recently published article in Newsweek (Promises Pakistan March 27,2006 ), Pakistan has reduced the poverty by 7 percent between 2001-2005 achieving + 8 percent growth. Last year Pakistan GDP Growth rate hit 8.4 percent, the world's second highest after China .
Just a couple of years before Nepal , Pakistan had restored full-fledged parliamentary democracy but major political parties of the parliament entered into constant conflict and rivalry among themselves, which ultimately destroyed that system. In the ensuing chaos, the power went to General Parvez Musharraf absolutely since 1999.
After 1999 coup, Pakistan had lost an image and goodwill and it suffered international sanctions including military and economic. After the military took over, both the prominent leaders of the parties suffered prosecutions and humiliation from the state and leaders of both the parties Benajir Bhutto and Nawaj Shariff are living in exile even now.
But 9/11 terrorist attack in the USA came as a turning point for Pakistan and it started getting all kinds of support from western countries mainly from the United States. The new situation eased its return to stability. General Musharraf held an election in which both the major parties were sidelined. Having the efficiency of a military rule, General Musharraf was able to provide an effective and clean governance, too. It brought a miraculous result.
"Last year, the country's GDP growth rate hit 8.4 percent, the worlds second highest behind China , following two years of solid 6 percent growth. This year the economy is predicted to expand by nearly 7 percent. After years of instability, with the government and military trying to distract people from their economic woes by waging jihad in Kashmir and railing against neighboring India , a true middle class is now developing. In many ways, the country has become the world's most surprising economic success story," writes Ron Moreay in his article in Newsweek.
These developments have two major lessons to a country like Nepal . If regime is determined to follow the political process, the elections pose a challenge as well as opportunity to the opponents of the regime. In Pakistan ’s case, two major political parties of previous parliament ignored participating in the elections. The result was both these parties lost with new forces emerging to establish their credentials.
The way the economy of Pakistan is booming, the new political parties may claim to have their leadership role in it. The way previous parties have lost their touch with the people, in due course of time that may confine them into history only.
The other lesson is that even an unpopular beginning of a regime can have a reformed image if efficiency and good governance can be brought into action. All claims in the beginning may prove to be a tall talk if no positive results follow the takeover. In Pakistan ’s case, General Musharraf made tall promises and he has been able to exhibit the results also.
The lesson to western democracies, too, is that the sanctions which they had imposed upon Pakistan would not stop it to achieve such high growth. To pacify domestic populist opinions, they some time impose destructive sanctions which goes against the people but not against regime.
Like in Pakistan , the regime here is determined to go into an election. If this situation continues, it is almost sure the previous political parties will be excluded from the mainstream. After boycotting the elections, big parties gave opportunities to unknown political outfits to hold the position in 52 municipalities in the country and next year, there may be a parliament without representatives of previous major parties.
However, as the country’s GDP growth forecast is about 2.8 percent, the regime is unable to give competent and clean governance. But one thing is certain that the country's major parties will be excluded from the mainstream. While with high economic growth and stable political situation, Pakistan is moving ahead ignoring country's two prominent leaders of political parties.
