May 26, 2006

Recent comments of Nepal 's two neighbors show that security is their main concern rather than a form of government and kind of constitution in Nepal

By KESHAB POUDEL

Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran And envoy Mukherjee : Heightened attention

While Nepali Loktantrics - a new version of Nepali democrats - and western countries including the United States of America are jubilant by the success in the recent stage of agitation and the charter declaration issued from the parliament, the same is not the case with Nepal 's two neighbors - India and China .

Some distant friends of Nepal like Switzerland , Norway , and Denmark have already seriously taken up the task of helping Nepalese people to prepare a new constitution through Constitution Assembly; but Nepal 's two immediate neighbors have shown that their first priority is security in Nepal .

In the process of helping Nepalese to formulate the new constitution, Switzerland , Norway and other European countries have also come up with their offers to help achieving the goal to bring the new constitution through CA.

The prime concern of nearest democratic neighbor seems to be not to immediately extend help for making a new democratic constitution though the CA for which they had an experience in the past. Following the shift of power from Royal Palace to Parliament, the first response of India 's state minister of state for External Affairs E. Ahmad was to discuss with new Nepalese leaders regarding growing activities of ISI ( Pakistan ’s intelligence agency) in Nepal and its threat to India 's security. "It has always been our wish to seek peace and prosperity in Nepal because stability in Nepal is in the best interest of India ," said Ahamad. (The Himalayan Times)

Even as prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala has been unable to expand cabinet including all his allied parties, the security concern expressed by an Indian official has alarmed reasonable persons in Nepal .

Real problems between Nepal and India do not always come to the surface in full length. But whatever is coming out as news recently is alarming. At a time when the whole country was anxiously the parliament declare its charter making itself sovereign and final authority, the security concern expressed by an official of big powerful neighbor has generated serious questions.

Not only the minister, a senior diplomat from south, who wanted to remain unnamed, also confided that security in Nepal is a question of survival for India . As Nepal shares more than 1600 kilometer long open border with India and both the countries share commonalities in cultural, religious, linguistic, geographical and ethnicity, naturally India has the highest stake in Nepal .

Tang Jiaxuan : Concerned north

When asked about the role of western powers including USA, the diplomat of south said these western powers may come and go but India has to live with the situation and deal with whatever threats that emanate in Nepal.

“I do believe that despite the vast geo-political and geo-strategic changes that have recently occurred in the world, particularly the Subcontinent, by and large, we continue to maintain a close security relationship between our two countries. Its graph has had minor fluctuations. But, when one looks at it through a historical prism, these fluctuations are insignificant. In India , there is a genuine concern for Nepal 's security, stability and progress. Nepal 's security affects India 's national security," said Ved Prakash Malik former chief of the Indian Army in his article India-Nepal Security Relations,

Almost similar opinions have been coming all the time from the northern neighbor. From senior politicians to diplomats, Chinese, too, closely monitor events in Nepal . In his recent visit to Nepal , Chinese vice premier Tang Jiaxuan clearly highlighted their interest in Nepal .

"A Nepal of peace, reconciliation and amity, enjoying stability, development and prosperity serves the fundamental interests of its people and will promote regional peace, stability and development," said Tang Jiaxuan. "We consistently support Nepal in its effort to safeguard sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Nepal is a sovereign country, and its internal affairs shall not be interfered with any way by any outside forces."

Responding to queries, a senior diplomat of Nepal 's northern neighbor confided that Nepal 's independence and stability is pre-requisite for Chinese security interest. The senior diplomat said State Councilor Tang's recent statement reflected the policy document (of China ) towards Nepal .

“ Nepal remaining independent nation is essential prerequisite for Chinese security. Thus, Nepal living under Indian security umbrella is constant threat to Chinese security," Chinese scholar Wang Zong in his book Nepal 's National Defensive Strategy and Nepal-China Relation.

That implies, India or China cannot afford to be unconcerned about the recent volatile and unstable situation in Nepal . The Jamboree of our politicians is very unstable and this unreliable platform may abruptly come to an end by even a small jerk or terms from either side of the country.

"One of the power bastions of stability in Nepal has been neutralized by the declaration of the parliament and popular forces have come in direct relationship with the Nepalese Army. In case of any miscalculation from one side, it is not the monarchy but the regional powers may be tended to intrude," said a political analyst. "Using one against the other or the game of divide and rule of the past imperialist style has its own influence in the new atmosphere. Let them declare anything for their political survival but the ground realities of the country is not going to change by such declaration.”

Alarmed by growing political instability in Nepal , India and China , Nepal 's two neighbors, are closely monitoring the situation. The country is in a very difficult phase of transition.

" Nepal 's central location on the southern slope of the imposing mountain system that separates the Tibetan plateau from the plains of India has always strongly conditioned the country's history and foreign policy. Modern Nepal controls approximately one-third of the Himalayan bastion upon which South Asia relies for protection- never more so than today," writes late Leo E. Rose in his book Nepal 's Strategy for Survival. "To Kathmandu , the current potentialities of external domination and subversion are not very different in kind-though they may be in degree- from those with which Nepali governments have had to contend for at least two centuries. There is basic similarity between King Prithivi Narayan Shaha's analysis of Nepal 's role in the Himalayan area and his selections of tactic and that of the Ninth ruler in his dynasty, King Mahenedra Bir Bikram Shah Dev. In part, of course, this can be attributed to the paucity of alternative policies for a country in Nepal 's position."

"Nevertheless, there are choices to be made within this strictly limited framework, and the consistency displayed by widely different groups of decision makers over a long period is one of the more notable aspects of Nepal 's history."

Despite the anger some motivated miscreants expressed by dismantling a statue of King Prithivi Narayan Shaha, one cannot change the geo-strategic reality explained by him as "a yam between two boulders'. For more than two hundred years, this has not changed.

Without any bloodshed, the power has shifted from Royal Palace to the parliament. This does not end the process of destabilization. The first phase of destabilization came to an end following the handover of power to the parliament but second phase may be yet to start, which is inevitably going to be more difficult and painful as Nepal's geo-strategic location remains unchanged. No change can be sustained if it fails to accommodate this ground reality where Nepal 's two important neighbors have more concern on their security rather than anything else.