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Nepal has seen a new political development following the government-Maoist accord, but everyone has a question in mind - what next?
By KESHAB POUDEL
A trekker can feel happy when he/she reaches at the top of the mountain. As soon as he/ she sees another higher summit close by, the person loses his or her spirit to continue the journey. Nepal ’s political development is like that to the people of all walks of life. Situation changes so abruptly that everybody is forced to think about his own future and future of the country.
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PM Koirala (left) and Prachanda : Quest for peace
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For the past two hundred years or so, Nepal has been facing similar kinds of problems. In the words of American scholar late Leo Rose in his book Nepal: Strategy for Survival, “To Kathmandu, the current potentialities of external domination and subversion are not very different in kind - though they may be in degree – from those with which Nepali governments have had to contend for at least two centuries. If the problems are not particularly new, neither is the repertory of response devised by the Kathmandu authorities. There is basic similarity between King Prithivi Narayan Shaha’s analysis of Nepal ’s role in the Himalayan area and his selections of tactics and that of the ninth ruler in his dynasty King Mahendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev.”
Hope for Peace
After signing of peace agreement between prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Maoist leader Prachanda on Tuesday, November 21 evening, the twelve years long ideologically covered Maoists insurgency comes to an end. This is the sixth insurgency - which is major one in terms of destruction and loss of life – wrapped up following signing of peace accord with the government.
Addressing the gathering following signing of 11 pages long accord –which contains 10 sub-headings including a preamble, prime minister Koirala declared that rebellion comes to an end. “This is the historic moment when all Nepalese showed that long lasting peace is possible through the efforts of Nepali people. I am happy that there will be no killing from now,” said Koirala. “No body needs to raise gun against the state in future.”
Similarly, Maoist leader Prachanda hailed the accord as an historic.” We are able to change the country’s 238 years history and Nepal is now entering into new phase of its development,” said Prachanda. As Nepal still occupies similar geographical areas as it was in 238 years ago, no body knows what Prahcanda means.
Challenging the peace accord, a section of people from terai - which is under the banner of Terai Loktantrick Mukti Morcha has already raised the gun assassinating a popular political leader of hill origin – has indicated that they will obstruct the peace and political stability.
Following overthrown of Rana regime in 1950-1951 through the violent rebellion, Nepal has seen six different kinds of violent insurgency. The first insurgency was led by Nepali Congress overthrow century old Rana Regime. The second rebellion - which was led by K.I. Singh in 1952 against Congress led government-, was crushed by the state. Nepali Congress led third insurgency following the dismissal of B.P. Koirala’s government in 1960-1962 and again in 1969-1970. In 1972, Nepal Communist Party Marxist Leninist, present CPN-UML, led another rebellion in Jhapa in 1973 which is popularly known as Naxal movement. Ram Raja Prasa Singh – who claimed in his interview that he handed over baton to Maoist, led another insurgency in 1984. Then, CPN-Maoist launched the insurgency in 1996. Despite signing the peace accord, Terai Loktantrick Morcha, a breakaway faction of Maoist, vows to continue the insurgency in southern plain of Nepal.
As Nepal ’s geo-strategic position remains unchanged, whoever may hold the reign of the country, the person in power has to encounter similar problems. More than thirty five years after publication of first analytical book on Nepal’s geo-strategic implication by American scholar late Rose, another American scholar Quentin W. Lindsey, economist by profession, has observed competitions between Nepal’s two neighbors.
Lindsay, in his book The Transformation of Nepal, writes, “Foreign governments don’t want to get drawn deeply into domestic issues unless it is vital to their own national self-interest. India would be upset if China tried to help in ways other than the forms of aid they provide now. Likewise, China would object if India became too involved with Nepal . The United States might give some informal moral support but the current president and Congress do not want to get involved in the complex political problems of a little country such as Nepal , especially if doing so might upset their relations with major powers like China , India or Russia .”
Whatever the political system they have in their own country, Nepal ’s both the neighbors India and China ’s interest in Nepal is guided by their security interests.
“ Nepal has two different political models on both of its sides which are militarily dangerous and economically dominant. Security is their main concern in Nepal . Whenever a democratic system tends to evolve, it is thwarted by the waves of their under current movements. This threat is still there and it is in much more serious dimension. One - who takes total state of responsibility of Nepal - is preferred by the hard-core strategists of both the countries. They compete for instruments to serve their strategic interest which has a long history in Nepal ,” said a political analyst.
Inviting hard core communist leaders who ideologically believe in absolute control of power by justifying any crude forms of violent acts against the pluralistic political system, democratic India ’s well-circulated newspaper showed whom they prefer in Nepal .
Addressing leadership summit in India along with Indian prime minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and Congress leader Sonia Gandhi, Maoist leader Prachanda, who once described India as a hegemonic power, sees India as a genuine supporter of Nepalese people. The flexibility in Prachanda’s statement has certain meaning. On the question of China , Prachanda said, “Chinese are very cold and Chinese officials have not contacted us.” On the question of their connections with Pakistan ’s Intelligence Agency (ISI), Prachanda said, “We don’t have any connections with ISI. However, the ISI activities were drastically subsided following the launching of our movement in Nepal .” In fact, Prachanda is not the first Nepali revolutionary leader to have been accorded such a welcome in New Delhi . Back in 1956, then rebel (who went on to become a prime minister once) KI Singh - who was regarded as dacoit by the Indian authorities - was also similarly welcomed.
Political Stability
Everybody in Nepal wants peace and political stability. Given the past experience it has been shown that bringing peace and stability in Nepal is like the myth of Sisyphus. Nepalese have to wait a long time to see political stability in the country.
“Some people from the developed countries ask why the people of Nepal are so much politicized. The reason is continued instability in politics and its ups and downs and turbulence. While looking behind, Nepalese politics have gone through major events in the past fifty years and in every major events in its history, the constitution and political system arranged within that has always been a casualty,” said the analyst. So this has happened again in Nepal . “Persons who are happy with the political change of 1990 have emerged as a victorious with a new word of democracy (Loktantra in Nepali), Maoists are happy that they achieved the goals of Constituent Assembly which was their major demand. Politicians who are opposed to the concept of CA are too happy to see the constitution brought by them was defaced and destroyed.”
In the last 17 years, the direct rule of the King was for 17 months and remaining period was ruled by the champions of the 1990 constitution. Maoists held the guns against them and the governments led by seven parties and the Maoists had engaged in fierce fighting. Atrocities from both the sides were no less during the conflict of that period.
“Now both are claiming themselves as victorious and have joined hands to fight against the other force in the country under the proposition of bringing out a new political order. Both have different pattern of politics as their goal. Maoists still hold the view that their ultimate goal is to create communist system and they are happy that their road to communism has been paved out,” said the analyst. “Democrat of pluralistic multi-party conviction is happy that the obstructions created by reactionaries have been removed but the question remains how both are going to achieve their contradictory goals?”
Politics of Intolerance
If there is no spirit of tolerance, compromise and reconciliation, how could that contradiction be reconciled to proceed forward for a peaceful and prosperous Nepal . The political scenario of Nepal is alarmingly confused and mass of the people in Nepal whether they are in politics or other profession is frustrated and confused.
Pradeep Nepal , a prolific columnist of CPN-UML leadership, in his recent article in Nepal Samacharpatra wrote, “Nobody knows where the country is heading and nobody knows who is ruling the country. Political leaderships are helpless.”
Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of Samaya weekly and a journalist with independent view, in his paper Samaya argued increasing trends of intolerance in Nepalese politics is causing more problems in the country. “What is happening today is essentially a process of conciliation, compromise and flexibility to certain understanding which will be the basis of future polity of Nepal . Manifestation of the past intolerance in one or the other form would adversely affect the on going process.”
As extortion, kidnapping and killing continue and the politicians have been using the words of hate against each other, one cannot see the sign of emergence of a bright prospect in Nepali politics. Nobody knows what is going to happen next after the signing of the peace treaty with the Maoists.
Rise of Absolutism
“The culminating effects of all these contradictions and confusions may produce an absolutist in the power - Nepal had in many such occasions where such persons emerged into the power in a casual way. In a common man parlance, people call it Jung Bahadur Syndrome. Though in medieval political setting, he emerged mainly from conflicts and confusion of the court conspiracies. Hitler, who emerged as absolutist in highly literate society in a modern age, was outcome of similar conflicts and confusions. Nepal is in lurking danger of an absolute decision maker in power. It is immaterial whether he will be in military uniform or a civilian facet,” said the analyst.
When democracy failed to accommodate multiple views and interests under a guarantee of just and fair political order, even in many Asian and African countries dictators have emerged in civil facet through ballot papers.
Now a decisive point has come to Nepalese politics where the negligence or difficulty of political forces in Nepal may do away with all dreams of prosperous and peaceful Nepal – turning them all into a wishful thinking.
“A dangerous trend is emerging in Nepal where the government and leadership of the parliament are destroying the values and norms of a constitutional order. They reach into the power by a liberal interpretation of a constitution but soon after that they started using and misusing a very bad precedent for the future. They claim all the powers provided in the constitution but they are not prepared to be restrained. Yes they want all the power but they don’t want any restraint (by the same constitution). That is the beginning of an absolute trend in power,” said the analyst.
“It is not necessary that Jung Bahadur may appear in military forms only but it may come in different phase and forms in different country where non-functional democracy picked up leaders and made them autocrat. A blurred image of Jung Bahadur is already there in Nepalese politics. The octogenarian leader who had a long record of a vowed democrat in his fragile health has no capacity to act as a despot but any of his successor of any political belief may have an easy opportunity to lead the trend of absolutism vigorously,” said the analyst.
Whoever may come to power, Nepal ’s fundamental problems will remain. No prophet is required to predict the next development in Nepal .
History of Insurgency in Nepal
- Nepali Congress 1950-1951 against Rana Regime
- K.I. Singh 1952 against Nepali Congress government
- Nepali Congress 1960-1962 and 1971 against Panchayat
- Nepal Communist Party Marxist Leninist in 1973 to establish communist role
- Janbadi Mukti Morcha (Ram Raja Singh) in 1984 against Panchayat
- Nepal Communist Party Maoist 1996-2006
- Terai Loktantrick Mukti Morcha 2005 till continues
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