Sep 22, 2006

By DR. SOM P. PUDASAINI

Nepal has been confronting a violent Maoists insurgency for over a decade. After the 12-point agreement between the Maoists and the seven party alliance (SPA) in November 2005, the very successful 19-day long Janaandolan-II of April 2006 and momentous 8-point agreement between the Maoists Supremo Prachanda and the Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala in June 2006 the country has entered into a new era. Peace talks are going on for the past months between Nepal Government and the Maoists to find a negotiated settlement to the conflict. Finding solution to political and socio-economic problems that triggered the Maoists conflict must be at the heart of conflict resolution and peace building. Without massive socio-economic transformation and change in the prevailing political culture it will not be possible to build an inclusive Nepal consistent with the desires of countrymen of all castes, creed, ethnicity, gender and regions. The Maoists, SPA and Government have agreed to invite the United Nations for managing arms held by the rebels and the state to ensure peaceful and free constituent assembly elections. There are still confusions and complications to be cleared before arms management and constituent asembly (CA) elections can take place.

Peace talk started on 26 May 2006 . Post-conflict reform and restructuring roadmap is not yet visible. The uncertain peace talks and post-conflict Nepal is a central national concern. A successful negotiation with a rebel outfit that has led a violent insurgency with a radical agenda for over a decade is unlikely to be easy. It is important to understand that past two rounds of negotiations failed badly. Chances are better now as there is an agreement on conducting constituent assembly (CA) elections to frame a new and inclusive constitution and resolve contentious issues. However, a lot of issues concerning date and modalities of CA election, role of monarchy, arms management, interim constitution, interim government etc continue to be matters of differences between PM Girijababu, Prachanda and his team, and SPA.

One must understand that the following five points are crucial for the parties in conflict to remember if they are to lead to lasting peace through negotiation. First of all, a successful negotiation demands a clarity on negotiating position or "bottom-line'. Secondly, adequate confidence between the negotiating parties is essential. Thirdly, compromise or flexibility to adjust expectations, egos and positions remains at the heart of sound negotiations. Fourthly, continuity is indispensable for successful negotiations as building confidence and reaching agreement requires much more time than planned in the beginning. Lastly, without a rock-solid commitment nothing succeeds. Additionally, the sooner the remedies for root causes of the conflict are discussed and devised the better will be the prospects for a lasting peace. Over 40 percent of conflicts are reported to return within 5 years and 50 percent within 10 years if the root-causes are not handled adequately.

On 9 August 2006, the Prime Minister and the Maoists supremo Prachanda agreement and sent separate letters to UN Secretary General for (1) continuing monitoring human rights situation through the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in Nepal, (2) helping monitor the 25-point Code of Conduct, (3) verifying and monitoring the confinement of the Maoist combatants and their weapons in designated cantonments, (4) monitoring confinement of NA and their weapons in barracks to ensure that they are not used for or against any side and (5) observing elections to CA. It was agreed that qualified civilians will be deployed to monitor the Maoist combatants and their weapons. In view of continuing disagreements on details, it was also agreed that the modalities for all arrangements, including of arms and munitions, will be worked out between the parties and the UN in the future.

After the Central Committee Meetings of the Maoists in Kamidada, Kavre, on 2 September 2006 they declared their sharp dissatisfaction with the Government, SPA and the key international players on their emphasis on separation of the combatants' arms before the Maoists can join interim government. They insisted that political package consisting of interim constitution, interim government, and CA election must be addressed first. In the absence of resolution of the political issues they threatened to start 'Urban Uprising' and agitations to force the government. They want to disarm their combatants only after CA elections. The fundamental problem is that of trust as the government is unsure of the intentions of the Maoists continuing to be "armed" and the Maoists are not sure how their position will deteriorate if they "disarm" before CA elections.

UN Office opened in Kathmandu under the leadership of Ian Martin, Special Representative of Secretary General Kofi Annan, is in a fix on how to streamline its mandate as per the 5-point request in the contentious milieu. International players are blamed to be unduly influencing internal politics and peace process in the absence of honest common stand on the part of political players. While external pressures can't be completely ignored, it is important for our power centers to stand firm and united to resolve our own problems by accepting fair and useful advice and decline whatever is unnecessary. This will both help solve our problems and enhance our international standing.

The problems so far appear manageable even though escalation of the conflict can't be ruled out completely. It is important for the PM, SPA and the Maoists leadership to honestly thrash-out political and arms management issues together. Honestly engage the UN Office in arms management, monitoring of human rights and future election observation as it is already here based on their joint request. A well thought-out and national consensus based post-conflict roadmap; including relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction; needs to be developed soon. One does not find any serious effort to develop a visionary, pragmatic and consensus-based post-conflict roadmap necessary for socio-economic transformation and restructuring of the state. Undoubtedly, Nepal will need adequate technical and financial resources from the outside world to build damaged infrastructures and expedited inclusive development in the future. The support of India , Japan , USA , EU and China will be crucial in addition to efforts to mobilize maximum resources domestically.

(Dr. Pudasaini has served UN in Sri Lanka and Yemen . Send feedback to spudasaini@yahoo.com