Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Kathmandu: Certainly things that have happened in these four or five days can in no way be termed as good that bode well for the country.

The chaos and the mess that was further added to the already worsening political situation of this country is sufficient to paint Nepal's picture as a state approaching an abyss whose further advance if not checked on time by the concerned and the sensible ones could bring about a disaster of an unprecedented scale.

This is the present scenario that the analysts at this newspaper have gathered looking, reading, and understanding the meaning underlying the situation wherein the country at the moment has plunged in.

This certainly demands timely and effective measures from the King who as the ultimate savior and guardian of the nation-state could arrest the further deterioration of his own country and our own country.

All eyes thus have turned to the King expecting that at least the New Year's customary message from the monarch would act like a medicine to an ailing patient.

Here, in our case, the patient is none less than the country itself which needs more now the full concentration of the King and the political parties now in agitation towards finding out the needed and the required medication that can treat the ailing nation effectively in order to save the patient or the country itself.

Analysts here presume that the King has already made up his minds to act in a manner that will encourage the agitating ones to come together all in the name of the nation that is slowly but surely moving towards a precipice. The reasons for that are some prepared by ourselves and our traditional friends have imposed some on us by force. Guess which forces?

High placed sources claim that the monarch is now ready to sit-in-for- a composite dialogue and comprehensive with the agitating parties but the same sources say that he would demand concurrently from the agitators a sort of guarantee that they would henceforth keep the national interests supreme and would not commit acts of blunder that push the country to the brink as had been the case in the past. (This was presumed to happen two weeks back, however, some invisible factors appear to have frustrated our in-depth analyses-ed).

Now that the King is ready all that the parties now in difference with the monarch will have to provide him proper assurances that henceforth they would act as per the established norms and the values of a true democratic system.

Moreover, sources claim that the King during the meeting, if that does happen in any eventuality, could also demand a "say" in the country's affairs as and when some political aberrations do occur and this he would wish to have in order to correct the emerging political abnormalities.

Now the stage appears to be set for a negotiation if the two so desire. However, if the two still behave with each other like estranged partners, which they are not and should be not, the issues confronting the nation will remain intact and the alien forces inimical to this country will spread their tentacles in a more dangerous manner.

Analysts appeal both the parties to reconcile in the larger interest of the nation.

What factors could have made the government so unyielding?

Kathmandu: The Government appears determined to face the challenge posed to it by the agitating seven now in the streets sine five days and that too in series.

On the other, the confronting agitators too have vowed to take rest only after toppling this regime and restoration of what they call a democratic order wherein the King accepted to remain as he was in the past.

The battle is on with street demonstrations that at times have taken violent form and the imposition of curfew order to contain the threat.

Analysts at this paper have tried to analyze as to what could been have been the hidden factors that might have emboldened the establishment to challenge the violent confrontation which fortunately have so far not taken an ugly turn. Similarly the political pundits here have also tried to go deep into the indomitable courage that is being exhibited by the agitators to show their strength to the establishment.

Let's first begin with the government's firm determination and its underlying possible cause.

The government sources claim that all that they had feared is the non-extension of the Trade and the Transit treaty by the Indian establishment which has come to a happy ending.

This is the consolation prize for the Nepal government from the Indian side.

The fact is that had the treaty been not extended, it would have amounted to a sort of economic blockade to Nepal much similar the way the other side had unilaterally imposed on Nepal as back as in March 23, 1989, which basically and most significantly had contributed in toppling the then Panchayat regime.

This time around the agitators too had expected similar treatments from their Indian mentors but the shrewed Indian establishment looked to its national interests and after demanding certain "exclusive" concessions from the Nepali side they agreed to extend the treaty.

The government here was in effect was afraid of the Indian possible stance over the extension of the treaty that has freshly been extended for yet another seven years. Thanks that the crisis was averted but the question remains intact: which exclusive concessions changed the hearts of the Indian establishment which was visibly taking the sides of the Katmandu's seven political parties?

Without taking some thing very tangible, the other side must not have agreed the treaty to be further extended.

The mystery lay here.

But then the gain, a pseudo one indeed, that the Nepali side has acquired has amply hit hard the sentiments of the agitators who had expected that India would by not extending the treaty will support their cause in an indirect manner which did not come in reality.

The second reason behind the government's firm and solid rock determination to deal with the agitation, experts say, could have been the Chinese assurances made public right here in Kathmandu by State Councilor Tang who in no uncertain terms told the international community that any incursion in Nepali affairs by any one "shall" not be tolerated by China.

Is it that the Chinese rock-solid backing made the Royal government so encouraged that she concluded that no country would poke its nose in Nepali affairs and hence whatever she does inside its territory would be taken as an internal affair?

Like it or not, the Chinese backing was some what spine-chilling to some countries near and far which could have frustrated the designs of some countries to poke its nose in the ongoing not-so-pleasant affairs in Kathmandu.

Should this mean that the Chinese verbal support was enough to encourage the Nepali establishment to deal with the ongoing situation in a way she desired?

Could be!

However, the Indian extension of the trade and transit treaty with India and the Chinese explicit support extended to Nepal by a top-level Chinese dignitary could have been the two effective and plausible reasons which might have encouraged Nepali establishment to go the way it is going at the moment vis-à-vis the agitation.

But then yet, the Americans appear to have changed their stance a little bit from their usual stance on the Maoists.

Now the American say to the Maoists: abandon violence and join the political mainstream if you can.

This is what has been described as a grand departure from the America's structured policy towards the Maoists.

(See what Richard Voucher has said in a CNN Interview recently on Nepal and her current problems-ed.)

Rebels admit their support to the agitation

Kathmandu: The Maoists appear to have eased the problem of the government.

The Maoists in all their honesty have declared that the ongoing movement in Nepal they too had their share of contribution.

This is what the establishment had been repeatedly saying that since the movement is being shared by the Maoists so it could in no way be a peaceful one as claimed by the seven parties.

Home Minister Kamal Thapa the other day even revealed the names of those five Maoists high ranking cadres who have had penetrated in the agitation sponsored by the agitating seven.

Now it has become pretty clear that the ongoing agitation has the full backing of the Maoists. The parties have yet to accept this fact despite the Maoists have made it known abundantly clear through a press statement released this Sunday.

With day long curfews and fear of being arrested under TADO, people appear some what terrifies. Comparatively speaking, the imposition of the curfew orders have to a greater extent controlled the damage or for that matter the destruction of the public properties.

Nevertheless, the zeal to deal with the government's orders remains intact though it has now remained in a scattered manner. However, demonstrations and meetings and defying of the curfew orders have become a common feature.

With fresh Prachanda's statement what has become abundantly clear is that the Maoists have been supporting the agitation and that the parties can't escape from the movement until a positive result awaited them because of the Maoists pressure with their presence.

The parties now have to admit that the current movement was a joint one.

The Prachanda statement has embarrassed the parties to an extent that they had not imagined of. In effect the parties were claiming that the movement is going through their own prowess, however, with the fresh explanation from the Maoists regarding the agitation the parties now can't collect the courage to tell their national and international supporters that the movement was bereft of those who wanted to absolve the entire democratic system.

How the parties would save their face given Prachanda's admission of his party's involvement in the current agitation will have to be carefully watched.

The other problem with the parties would be if they reconcile with the constitutional forces, the King included, the Maoists would take this political overture, as a sort of out and out betrayal and in all likelihood be the prime target of the Maoists as usual.

The fact is that the parties now can't afford to abandon the support of the Maoists. They have already fallen in their trap.

Analysts leave it up to the readers to conclude: who has been using whom and for what purpose? And who is the ultimate beneficiary and the final loser?

The only possible scenario comes to the minds of the analysts is a three-party talks, the Maoists, the political parties and the King.

Neither the parties can now unilaterally side with the King nor the King can break the Maoists-Parties tie up.

Now India is the one country that can bring the estranged partners together for a permanent solution and could well extract press all the three parties to yield to their exclusive demands if a solution were to be obtained.

Great Indian maneuvering indeed. But analysts say it is the people of Nepal, Maoists included, who have fallen into their inescapable trap which is a fact now.

"Violent parties should abandon the violence, and stop the horrors, and then move into the political mainstream"

Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard A. Boucher calls on King to restore democracy

Kathmandu: How an Indian Journalist of Indian origin observe Nepal affairs could well be gauged from how the said media women asks questions to the person being interviewed. People of the Indian origin, whether they be in media , political parties or in government, all have the same dominating attitude and the feeling of hatred for Nepal as instructed/taught by their local masters in Delhi. The interview of Richard A Voucher appears more to have been taken by a South Block diplomat who is invariably indoctrinated to spread a sort of hatred on Nepal and its political parties more so to the King. The Indian phenomenon indeed. A rare example of biased questions that were asked to the US dignitary.

In an April 7 interview with senior CNN correspondent Satinder Bindra in New Delhi, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard A. Boucher has urged King Gyanendra to restore democracy and protect civil liberties during the ongoing protests. The excerpts on Nepal and her affairs are here for the consumption of our readers.

Satinder Bindra : How has this been like, Ambassador, your first trip here? Any big surprises? Or you’ve just sort of settled in real fast?

A/S Boucher: I think I’ve settled in fairly quickly. With a country like India, there’s always a lot of stuff you just don’t know, and so you go back, do your history, talk to your staff, and… I picked it up. I know the issues, I know where we want to go. I just don’t always know the history. Sometimes, the Indian side… they’re frank, they tell me how to do things, and…

Satinder Bindra : Ambassador, grave concern in South Asia, that Nepal is headed to perhaps becoming a failed state. How do you read it?

A/S Boucher: Well, I think we have a lot of concern, along with the countries of this region, that Nepal is headed in decidedly the wrong direction. The steps the King took a year ago to eliminate democracy and to try to run the country, they haven’t worked, and they’re not working, and they’re not going to work. The steps he’s taking now to arrest people, they’re not working. There needs to be a restoration of democracy. The political parties need to be able to stay together, move together, but then have a democracy, run the country democratically. And the Maoists really have to abandon this fight. Because they’re doing horrible things. They’re killing people, they’re going into villages, and they’re bombing people. There may be a partial cease-fire in the country now, but there’s still horrible things happening out there. The only way to solve this is for politics to come back and democracy to come back.

Satinder Bindra : How can you engineer a political solution there? What do you have to do? What does the U.S. have to do?

A/S Boucher: Well, I think first we have to work with others, and many people have some influence in the situation, as many of us that can talk frankly to the King, talk to the political parties… There are many things we can do to support political parties during this difficult period and to discourage the King, to withdraw some of the support that we’ve put in that direction.

Satinder Bindra : But more specifically, your message to the King?

A/S Boucher: My message is restore democracy.

Satinder Bindra : Would you agree to having the Maoists join part of the political mainstream? Would you agree to have the Maoists become part of any future government in Nepal?

A/S Boucher: I don’t think that’s a choice for us. We’re not going to decide the future government of Nepal. We want it to be chosen democratically. The parties that are violent should abandon the violence, and stop the horrors, and then move into the political mainstream. They can contest power through a political way. If they win, they win. If they don’t, they don’t.

Satinder Bindra : Now you’ve been thinking about restoring arms supplies to Nepal. Is that something that has been finalized? Or is the thought process…

A/S Boucher: No, there were some erroneous reports on that. We have not been thinking about restoring arms assistance in Nepal. We are not looking at any change in our policy of not providing lethal aid from the United States to Nepal.

Satinder Bindra : Mr. Ambassador, how do you see the future there? How are you going to work with India to do something there, because recently hundreds have been arrested?

A/S Boucher: We’ve got to work together with India, neither one of us can do this alone. There are other countries that have a lot of influence. I think the first step is for the international community to work together. The message is very clear. We all need to deliver it, and the King needs to listen.

Satinder Bindra : If these protests continue over the next few months, then what? How do you see the situation?

A/S Boucher: Well, we’ll deal with the situation as it evolves. I think there’s always more things we can do to continue essentially the same policy, and make the King understand that half is not working, of making clear to everyone that restoring the political process is the only way for Nepal to find a better future.

Satinder Bindra : When all these protests happen – tear gas is fired, hundreds of politicians are arrested – what do Nepalese diplomats tell you when you express your concerns? What are they promising? What are they thinking of doing?

A/S Boucher: You know at this point, they laid out a course, which is basically the continuation of the present course – more elections without real participation, more efforts by the King to manipulate the political situation. That’s just not working. It’s not going to work. It’s not the right thing, and it’s not working. Really, the only thing is to restore political parties and democracy.

Excerpts only. Text courtesy: American Center, kathmandu-ed).

ENBREF:

Nation celebrates: Nepal beats India in AFC cup

Kathmandu: Nepal registered a much need win against India to boost their confidence after a gap of 13 years through two goals scored by Pradeep Maharjan and added the tally to three as skipper Basanta Thapa scored another goal and entered the semi-finals of the inaugural AFC Challenge Cup being played in Bangladesh.

Nepal dominated the play from the beginning and put continuous pressure over the Indian team scoring three goals inside 10 minutes. The Telegraph Weekly wishes good luck to the national team.

It is for the first time that after Nepal was forced to sign the 1950 unequal treaty with India, that this country has ever defeated the other side with valor and courage. Keep it up boys! You have made a history. The politicians should learn from the boys!

Nepal-India Maoists preparing joint attack: Indian Intelligence

Kathmandu: Indian intelligence report claims that the rebel Maoists in Nepal and their counterparts in India are planning a joint action in the northern Bihar districts executing a jailbreak, reports The Statesman, India. The newspaper further reports that this has caused panic among the people living in the bordering areas.

The report further claims that in the near future the rebels from Nepal may infiltrate into Indian territory under pressure from the Royal Nepalese Army.

The home secretary Mr Sirohi told the newspaper that, “The government has taken the matter very seriously and efforts are on to check the Maoists’ infiltration inside the Indian border.” India’s 750-km long border with Nepal is considered very volatile.

BJP demands Naxalism be treated a national problem

Kathmandu: The radical Hindu Nationalist party, BJP President Rajnath Singh demanded a white paper on internal terrorism and external aggression faced by India.

He demanded that the Centre should publish a white paper on the internal terrorism and external aggression and the Government should take the Opposition and the country into confidence on that.

Demanding that Naxalism be treated as a national problem, he said about 17 per cent of the total population are affected by it and to solve the menace the Centre should provide sufficient financial assistance and security forces to the affected States, the Hindu reported.

Task force for SAFTA

Kathmandu: A task force is constituted for implementing the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). The task force has been constituted by the Nepalese Government with the objective of effectively executing the provisions of SAFTA. The Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies, revealed this information to the reporters last week.

The task force is working by giving the highest priority as to how best to promote Nepal's interests, he added.  As many as 1,300 Nepali goods have been enlisted as sensitive goods while this number has to be decreased to 1,000.

ADB predicts 2% growth in 2006: Nepal

Kathmandu: The Asian Development Bank Outlook Report 2006 reports that Nepal's gross domestic product increased by only 2.3 percent mainly due to escalation of insurgency-related disruptions to the economy and the effects of weak monsoon rains.

The economy faltered in the year to mid-July 2005, reflecting a weather-related decline in paddy production and the adverse impact of the conflict on tourism and industry.