Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Niraj Aryal

The Maoist supreme leader Prachanda had indicated quite a many times the approaching of the present turmoil. Had the present regime analyzed, understood and acted upon by making some clever political moves to counter the threat loaded signals could have avoided their loosening grip over the country’s current affairs. Perhaps his statements had given enough time for the present regime to act upon, but in all a missed opportunity and all together it is too late, say majority of the political observers. Prachanda, who all the way through his interviews in the national and international media had quite clearly indicated their determination in winning the battle against the present regime through bullets, thus opted for a strategy, in his own words, “Riding in the back and hitting the head”. If this was an indication from the presumed enemy of the establishment, then the regime could have prepared itself for unlocking the trap, which obviously did not happen, instead the government opted for confrontation with a weaker opposition and distanced them further. This was the first, let's call it a blunder, on the part of the current regime.

On the other hand, the political parties, distanced by the current regime in Kathmandu had no other way but to join the Maoists through the twelve point agreement succumbing to the hide-n-seek pressure from the communist partnered regime in the South, finally agreed to provide the Nepali rebels a desired political platform from where they could launch their onslaught against the current regime.

The arrival of the Indian special envoy, Dr. Karan Singh was seen as a last resort to solve the current stalemate in the country. A political analyst talking to this scribe over the telephone had indicated that the present regime couldn't trust India in this regard gazing their historical double standard. The current regime by yielding to the Indian dictate in addition to the initial delay in returning back the power to the people started committing repeated mistakes. The latter is termed as the second mistake and the former the third one.

In the fading day light, as His Majesty the King was giving away power to the people and showing his desire to remain as a constitutional monarch, India within fraction of a second had welcomed his moves. The same day in a broad day light as the city was deserted amid state declared curfew, the people in Kathmandu were watching Ambassador Mukharjee making his moves in the streets of Kathmandu, whereby predicting HM’s speech in the evening. The US, the EU and the UN thereafter welcomed his speech, citing it as a way forward to solve the present crisis. But the sphere of their influence in Nepal is too little to leave any impact which could be felt. Whereas, India yet again and as predicted by the political analysts changed its posture on Nepali political turmoil after few days through the kind courtesy of Syam Saran.

In the local level, the Maoists in the one hand, through a synthetic shift in their policy, supporting the political parties in their on going peaceful demonstrations and on the other hand taking away the mass support from the political parties, have been able to dictate the mass uprising suiting to their strategic benefit. A Maoist intrusion into the current uprising cannot be negated out rightly and this they have openly admitted to which the parties yet beg to differ. Anyway, a game very tactfully played by the Maoists in the end which could ultimately provide them a safe landing by legitimizing their past acts where by exclusively blaming the monarch for the collapse of the nation state as a whole.

In the end, half the job already done for the Maoists without sparing a single bullet, whether call the Maoist supremo an adroit or the rulers in Kathmandu a visionless political animals, both way yields the same result.