Wednesday, August 2, 2006

INDEPTH ANALYSIS:
COAS Thapa's absence at HLPC has indeed some hidden message!

Kathmandu : Deliberate or otherwise, the unbelievable has happened.

The incident that has come about early this week is some what hair-raising one which concurrently possesses underlying messages therein.

Nepali intellectuals appear to have been taken aback when they listened through media that Chief of the Army Staff, Shri Pyar Jung Thapa, instead of appearing before the High Level Probe Commission, HLPC, flew to Pokhara last Sunday-the day which the HLPC has summoned him for a sort of "interrogation" on his presumed involvement in the suppression of the freshly concluded movement-2.

Official intimation provided to the HLPC by the concerned ministry had been that COAS Thapa have had a pre-scheduled meeting to be attended in Pokhara and hence he could not present himself before the Commission that had summoned him.

Nevertheless, a section of the analysts in Kathmandu presume that COAS Thapa deliberately neglected the HLPC summon and instead chose to send signals to the members of the Commission and through it to the government that he was a different stuff altogether and that he could not be made to obey the orders of the Commission.

The second message, analysts say, that COAS Thapa's absence in the premises of the Commission on that very particular day indicated that have had the needed and the required "allegiance" to the Nepal government and that he need not present himself before a commission some of whose members were already fallen under the purview of law demanding a probe itself.

Thirdly, Thapa's sudden flying in a Chopper to Pokhara were a direct hint to the commission that he has yet to compromise with the loyalty what he possesses for the Monarchical institution in the country.

This, if so as indicated by Thapa and concluded by the analysts here, does amply speak of the fact that the entire Military institution will take enough time to pour in their loyalty onto the hands of the new establishment.

If this were not enough, the second and the third man in the incumbent military institution too in series followed verbatim, in style and practice, the COAS way and neglected the summon thus served to them.

At best these two gentlemen said: "well we would present ourselves before the Commission only after our COAS complied to the Commission's summon".

Thus, in all, the government and the parliament had to gulp this bitter pill provided them by the high-ranking military authorities.

Newspapers are all agog with rumors that COAS Thapa could not have done so or dared to do so if he were not enjoying the backing of none less than the defense minister who is the Prime Minister himself.

Unsubstantiated reports but yet strong sources have said this paper that on Saturday, a day ahead of COAS Thapa's trip to Pokhara, Thapa have had a long-secret conversation with the Prime Minister for well over 45 minutes.

Some even suspect that the Prime Minister himself was not in favor of COAS Thapa going to the premises of the HLPC and hence it was under his "instructions", Thapa left for a charming trip to Pokhara.

The presumption is that Koirala did so out of fear of the Maoists who have yet to prove their democratic credentials. The rebels have yet been sending threat loaded statements. And he did this in order to keep the morale of the army high given the volatile situation in the country still prevailing. Koirala could have thought not to degrade the morale of the army at this critical juncture for if any thing happened wrong in the mean time then it would be this army under COAS Thapa to take charge of the overall security interests of the country. Logic is there but what the Maoists think of such a prime ministerial gesture?

"It is this fear-psychology of Koirala which might have prompted or rather encouraged him to hint Thapa to neglect the Summon of the HLPC", analysts presume.

Officials at the defense ministry though claim that COAS Thapa had an already arranged meeting wherein he had to make a lecture to his soldiers wherein he was supposed to train his low-rung army men on how to "embrace" the new changed context of the country. This official theory too can't be ruled out. A personality of Thapa's stature could have such meetings fixed in advance. Sounds logical indeed.

This he did, report newspapers.

Yet another notorious section of the analysts presume that COAS Thapa belittled the HLPC order under the instructions of some powerful countries who would not want the Nepali army demoralized for obvious reasons.

Be that as it may, the HLPC is in a sheer puzzle. The HLPC now fears as to what would happen to the status of the Commission if others too followed suit the manner COAS Thapa had.

But then yet the HLPC is considering to send yet another summon to the erring military men.

How the things unfold in the coming weeks will have to be carefully watched.

One thing is for sure is that COAS Thapa and his colleagues' flat denial to present themselves in front of the commission for interrogation must have disturbed peace from the minds of the Maoists.

But then yet, there have been rumors that COAS Thapa and Prachanda have had a cordial meeting with each other some time back.

How one would interpret such mysterious and unbelievable meetings we better would like to leave it to the perusal of the Nepali academicians.

This again proves that Nepal continues to be a mysterious country whose politics neither has an end nor the beginning.

Three jerks in series have been provided by this event: the first one to the new Nepal government, the second one to the all sovereign-powerful parliament and obviously the third one is for the commission itself.

STRIP NEWS:
 Koirala tells India not send "irrelevant delegations" in one pretext or the other

Kathmandu : Tolerance too has a limit.

Patience too can't go for an indefinite period. Similarly, one can't remain comfortable for an unspecified tenure in the name of keeping the friendship intact.

One explodes when enough is enough. One has the right to disprove the unnecessary and most unwanted sermons that one is forced to accept more often than not.

Exactly this is what has happened this time. The unbelievable has happened and that too in a place that is the official residence of the Nepal 's Prime Minister.

The fact is that Prime Minister Koirala have had to "teach a lesson" to the visiting Indian leaders who had entered into his residence last week under the guise or for that matter the pretext of what they called "Awareness program for Nepal" led by D.P.Tripathi who is the GS of Indian Nationalist Congress, India.

A totally upset and embarrassed Prime Minister Koirala after the conclusion of the formalities with the visiting Indian delegation sent by a non-entity now politically speaking, Chandra Shekhar-the former prime minister of India who continues to be a private friend of the Koirala family, lambasted out at the Indian leaders.

Look what he said, according to strong rumors that have spread in Kathmandu like a wild fire: "I appeal you all not to come to Kathmandu every now and then under one pretext or the other. You must take into account that the Nepalese population is a strong nationalist force (implied anti-Indian sentiments prevail here) and thus coming of delegations like this one repeatedly might boomerang on you and your country. If need be, we will ourselves invite you either by extending invitations or by telephone. I would politely suggest you all not to repeat such blunders in the future or else I will have to face the consequences. Enough is enough". (Based on strong rumors-ed).

The authenticity of this Koirala's first time adventurism is yet to be substantiated but sources inside the congress paraphernalia remain tight lipped when asked as to whether Koirala pounced on the Indian delegation or not.

But our own source says emphatically that Koirala did not receive the Indian delegation in a friendly mood.

Now let's analyze why Koirala was forced to blast at the Indian delegation right inside his official territory.

Firstly, if what Koirala said were taken for granted then what comes to the surface is that "Koirala as the Prime Minister of Nepal would want henceforth to keep himself at a comfortable distance with the Indian leaders more so with the Indian establishment.

Secondly, if Koirala ventilated his anger, at all, against the Indian delegation then that could have been done to send a message to the regional countries and across the globe that he nurtures a feeling that India should by every established universal international standard treat Nepal as a completely sovereign and independent nation but not the manner she has been exhibiting towards this country of late more so after the conclusion of the last April Revolution.

Thirdly, Koirala appears pretty annoyed and frustrated over the undiplomatic and unacceptable acts of preaching sermons and imposing their dictates on Nepal and her exclusively internal affairs.

Fourthly, if Koirala said so, then that could have been a signal or for that matter a subtle message to the Indian establishment under proxy-prime minister not to poke her nose in Nepali affairs.

Fifthly, Koirala hints that personal friendship must not be allowed to have its impact on an independent and sovereign country's status and hence in her internal matters.

Sixthly, Koirala in doing so apparently wants to hint India that for his country, Nepal, it is not only India that should always be taken into account as a matter of rule or for that matter tradition and that Nepal has now so many countries, in the region and the globe, eager to extend their tangible support in restoring peace and for the institutionalization of democratic system here.

Seventhly, Koirala by doing so has sent signals to the developed West and the other countries of the region that he wanted to be free from the "allegations" that NC and Koirala were synonymous to India and her policies.

All in all, Koirala did what he should have done decades back. Koirala's courage, analysts conclude, have got to be appreciated.

Nevertheless, one question remains unanswered yet: What Koirala will say of his seeking of the Indian support at time of the April Revolution? If he were a true nationalist, he should have out rightly ignored the Indian support that was visibly free from across the border?

The tradition is that if you seek support and if you get the required support then concurrently you must be prepared for providing or yielding to the dictates of those who have supported you. There is no free lunch in diplomacy.

But then yet analysts at this paper unconditionally recognize Koirala as a die-hard nationalist and find him very closer to his own late brother late B. P .Koirala who had proved through his various lectures and articles at the fag end of his life that he too were a staunch nationalist. Kudos to Prime Minister Koirala for your courage and timing you chose to ventilate your "inner feelings". Analysts salute you!

Now that Koirala has upset the mood of the Indian leaders and by implication of the Indian establishment, it will have to be watched carefully on how the "insulted" the fake "Indian awareness campaign delegation leaders" react to Koirala's rough and tough gestures meted out to them not in the distant past.

BOX NEWS:
Japan joins the EU-US-India "axis" over Nepal affairs

Moriarty and Koirala's statements tally

Kathmandu: It could be a mere political conjecture albeit, however, political developments when analyzed keeping in view of what American Ambassador says or reiterates in Kathmandu either through a lecture or whenever he has a meeting with the high dignitaries of new Nepal government, the latter practically toes the same line providing ample space to the Maoists to suspect that the government under prime Minister Koirala were heavily influenced by Ambassador Moriarty's reiterations.

Perhaps it is this fact which prompts the Maoists' leaders, Prachanda and Bhattarai specially, to "criticize" the American Ambassador in practically each of their speeches, interviews, or statements.

Look the conjecture this time: Moriarty meets Koirala on July 28 last month to remain ever cautious from the Maoists clandestine designs. He even sees the possibility of the Maoists capturing the Singh Durbar secretariat one fine morning if the rebels were left unchecked the way they were making strategically important political moves.

"perhaps the rebels could some day end up overpowering the State, given the way they are casting their influence in every walk of life", is what Ambassador Moriarty is learnt to have told the ailing Prime Minister during his meeting with him last week.

Reacting to Moriarty's briefing provided to Koirala last week, Comrade Prachanda in his fresh ceasefire announcement and more so Dr. Bhattarai in his fresh article printed in Janadesh weekly dated August 1, do not hide their combined displeasure over what Moriarty has been saying of late and more so after his return from Washington recently. Both the top-hats of the insurgency see an enemy in Moriarty's personality which apparently they conclude had been blocking their "smooth" entry into the mainstream politics and in the governance of the country.

The rebels have reasons to be unhappy with Ambassador Moriarty for the latter warns the government that the rebels in no way be inducted in the government until they lay down their arms. His warning to the government comes at a time when the rebels have been exhibiting their craze for power in order perhaps to make "historical announcements".

Moriarty perhaps knows this fact that the rebels were eager to join the government and hopes that in order to fulfill their hidden earnest desire they could even settle for less.

Hardly two days had passed of Moriarty meeting with Koirala, here is Koirala today announcing that he "would not induct the Maoists in the establishment until there is a final settlement to the arms possessed by the Maoists".

This finally caps the possibility of the Maoists joining the government in a day or two.

This also means that the "longer you keep the arms with you, longer time I would take to induct you in government machinery".

Fortunately or unfortunately, Japan and China too have expressed similar statements as has been made by the US , EU and India . Should this mean that Japan of late too has joined the EU-US-India "axis"? Perhaps yes.

Japan said the other day that "managing the arms and the armies was needed before there is any interim administration".

Definitely the visiting Japanese dignitary was talking of the management of the rebel armies and the arms but not of the national army.

Koirala's problems are understandable. Neither he can afford to ignore the Indian and the American "private" suggestions provided to him during separate meetings in the recent days, nor can he out rightly subside the Maoists' extra-craze for power.

But then yet, Koirala appears to have assured both Shyam Saran-Indian Foreign Secretary who was once again here on a hidden mission recently, and Ambassador Moriarty that "he was not going to yield to the rebels dictates at the cost of the law and order situation of the country".

This amply means that he would love to differ with the Maoists when it came to equate the people's militia at par with the national army.

This, if so, makes it abundantly clear that Koirala will not compromise in demoralizing the national army in order to please the Maoists.

Should this mean that Koirala's considerations over the prestige of the national army tally with Moriarty's implied references?

Moriarty who was on a leave upon return apparently briefed Koirala on how his own country was "concerned".

Look what he says: " Washington was very, very concerned about what could happen in Nepal at a time when the government has been struggling to deal with the rebels sternly".

A close analysis of what Ambassador says brings to the fore that Washington will take longer and enough time to trust the rebels' changed credentials. This also means that in the eyes of the US , the Nepali rebels were still an outfit that could not be trusted so easily unless they proved their changed credentials through deeds.

This finally means that though the Nepal government would love to see the Maoists coming to the mainstream politics of the country as soon as possible, the US administration would keep the Maoists under the ambit of suspicion.

That the US still suspect the Maoists becomes clear from Moriarty's statement when he sees the possibility of the Maoists overpowering the State some day.

Be that as it may, the Maoists will have to work hard in order to convince the lone super power and vice versa.

Rumors have it that Shyam Saran too warned Koirala not to get swayed by the lucrative ideas of the Maoists.

Should this mean that both the US and India were opposing the Maoists coming to power tooth and nail? Perhaps yes!

But then yet both the countries are on record to have said that the Maoists can join the establishment only after they "dissociate" themselves with the arms for good.

The Maoists and the US verbal war appear to continue for some more time to come.

MISCELLANEOUS:
Dr. Bhattarai sees bids afoot to damage June 16 agreement; says Nepalese capable in handling internal affairs

Kathmandu: Pretty annoyed by the dilly-dallying mode acquired by the seven party alliances in going for the Summit level talks and frustrated over the new stance taken by the alliance partners over their people's militia and their arms, the Maoists ideologue, Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai has bluntly said that had there not been the presence of his party's militia in town at time of the last movement, the movement as such would not have achieved the desired success and the SPA members would not have got the opportunity to bounce back to power.

Dr. Bhattarai in his fresh article does not hide that it were his party's militant militia men that provided a final shape to the movement whose success is unilaterally being reaped as a bumper harvest by the members of the seven party alliances.

He even alleges that the SPA members had fervently "appealed" the Maoists party to "disturb" the municipal polls then being conducted by the then Royal regime.

"How can you all forget the fact that you have had urged our party to damage the prospects of the municipal polls"?, adds Bhattarai.

He then assures the Nepalese people that his party will not cheat the population as had been done by the political parties at different intervals of the country's history.

"We don't want to be a traitor, we will remain committed to the people's wishes", continues Dr. Bhattarai.

He laments in the same article when he sees the SPA members interpreting the eight point agreement freshly signed by his party with the SPA right inside the premises of the prime minister on June 16.

"How can you all provide a clean chit to the national army and cast aspersions on such an army that has ever remained and fought for the people's political benefits", Dr. Bhattarai questions.

"This is unacceptable", adds Bhattarai.

He them reiterates his party's bottom line that revolves around the 12 point and the 8 point agreements signed on November 22, 2005 and 16 June, 2006 and opines that he and his party will not settle for less than sticking to those agreements.

In the article he expresses his doubts over the changed intentions of the SPA members whom he sees to have been pretty influenced of late by the utterances of "some powerful international forces".

Bids appear, continues Dr. Bhattarai, afoot to bring about a total rupture in the freshly signed 8 point agreement by various forces in order to corner the Maoists.

Nevertheless, what is significant in his fresh article is that he gives and inkling into the fact that neither he nor his party members were that happy with the growing influence of the foreign powers and more so of the UN System even.

In Bhattarai's humble opinion, the Nepalese could have themselves sorted out this issue on their own meaning that even the UN was most unwanted and uncalled for.

But then yet he has not that bad words for the UN team currently in Nepal . He is pleased to see that the Mistura delegation elevated their ranks in the eyes of the international community by inviting the party of the rebels for talks.

"Let the Nepalese themselves chart their own future and try to get out of the clutches of the foreign masters", concludes Dr. Bhattarai.

However, he does not mention as to which countries were posing as masters of Nepal and the Nepali people?

Perhaps he has left this fact untouched because he considers that the nepali people know the whereabouts of their foreign masters better.

SINGLECOLUMN:
Talk program on CA held

Media role in educating people highlighted

Kathmandu : Nepal 's noted intellectuals, political leaders, media men and civil society members have said that the need of the hour was that the political parties operating in the country must remain clear in their perceptions before going to the constituent assembly elections.

This they said at a joint program organized last week by the Global Progressive Forum , Nepal , and Citizen Voice Monthly.

Upper House member Dipak Bahadur Gurung cited the example of CA in South Africa and opined that the dates for the CA elections be declared only after the Maoists arms and the armies were settled for good.

Dr. Tika Pokhrel, a noted intellectual, urged the political parties including the Maoists to make the people understand as to what was a Constituent Assembly all about.

Noted journalist, D. H. Adhikary felt the need to educate the people on the nitty-gritty's of the CA by the media.

The chairman of the Green Party Nepal, Kuber Sharma, was of the opinion that every one should abide by the verdict of the people and appealed the larger parties to listen to the voices of smaller political entities as well.

Former diplomat, Sambhu Ram Simkhada, urged the political parties to make public their agenda/stances on the Constituent Assembly elections at the earliest.

The program was presided over by the president of the Global Progressive Forum, Mukunda Subedi who is himself a free lance journalist. Mr. Subedi dwelt at length about the possible role of the media in educating the lay men about the constituent assembly elections.

ENBREF:

Bhutanese urge India to intervene

Kathmandu : Indian media reports claim that Bhutanese refugees living in different camps in Jhapa-Nepal, sending an appeal to the Indian prime minister have urged India to mediate to solve their problem. Some 200 Bhutanese refugees at Timai Camp staged a sit-in on the Mechi Bridge at Kakarvitta for two hours and sent the appeal letter to the Indian prime minister through the Indian security personnel present there, the media reports claim. The refugees have been staging sit-in on the Mechi Bridge every Friday since January this year.

ADB’s assistance

Kathmandu: The director general for South Asian department of the Asian Development Bank in a three-day official visit to Nepal, expressing peace as a prerequisite for stability, overall development and prosperity, said that the ADB is interested to assist the development programs determined with priorities by the budget of the current fiscal year.

Mr Kuniyo Senga, talking to the reporters in Kathmandu also expressed sincere commitment on behalf of the ADB to provide assistance to execute the development priorities worked out by the government of Nepal .

Japanese support: US$ 8.1 million

Kathmandu : The visiting Japanese Senior Vice-Foreign Minister, Yasuhisa Shiozaki, said that his country would provide all possible assistance to Nepal , through bilateral and multilateral channels for strengthening and consolidation of democracy as well as for the success of the peace process.

He also pledged that Japan would provide a grant of US$ 8.1 million for the development of broadcasting sector in Nepal .

Happiness Index: Sri Lanka- 93; Nepal- 119; India-125 recent research

Kathmandu : A British analytic social psychologist, Adrian White from University of Leicester recently prepared the map rates of 178 countries indicating happiness index. The worst performer in South Asia , Pakistan is 166th while Nepal is119, Bangladesh is 104, China is 82, Sri Lanka 93 and India is 125. The study’s measures of three sources of happiness were health, wealth and access to education.

Government setups arms disarmament authority

Kathmandu : The RSS-Nepal (National News Agency) reported that the government in Nepal has decided to establish a National Authority on Disarmament Affairs under the convener-ship of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The report also indicated that the joint Secretary at the United Nations Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will be in charge of the authority, the ministry said in a news release.