Wednesday, August 2, 2006

From Ashes to Trillions

Kishor Shrestha, Editor, The Jan Aaastha Weekly
(Freshly upon returning from China )

On July 4, one of us, greeting a middle aged foreigner said congratulation on behalf of the Nepalese people . It is human nature to feel pleased after being praised. But the gentleman did not look flattered by our words. Instead his reply was unexpected for us. He said in brief that they were not satisfied.

That day had a pleasant coincidence. The Chinese communist party had invited us on the occasion of its 85 th birthday and on that very day the railway from Beijing to Lhasa touching 52 hundred meter height, the highest railway service in the world was inaugurated.

On the fourth day of our delegation's arrival, when we were roaming around  Yichang city, the World Bank had sent a grand news for our Chinese hosts .

Usually people are pleased by the achievement of their country. Same thing happened with our Chinese friends. They were feeling pleased in their hearts but they were not expressing wildness in their face. Instead they were saying -"but our problems are big, many tasks are remained to be fulfilled. The time has not yet come for us to be satisfied."

The news that was broadcasted that day was: China has become the fourth economic empire.

Yes, on that news the executive editor of  Jana Ekata (People's Unity) Mr. Damodar Timilsina had congratulated them as a good neighbor . Up to last year China was on the 6th position with total national production of 2.26 trillion $ US (in Nepalese Rupees 16 hundred and 82 billion). But our neighbor within one year with a margin of 94 million $ US or with a thin margin of 0.004% left Britain, the one time greater empire behind ,this was not an ordinary achievement. Looking, this way, China now in order to get world cup has to surpass Germany , Japan and the United States of America only on the way to the top of the economic journey.

But the Chinese are not satisfied by whatever they have achieved so far. The main reason for this is that there is difference between nation's progress and a person's income .

  China has one in every five person of the world or that China is the most populous country of the world.

Looking from the point of view of a country the progress is spectacular but from the point of per capita income it is behind more than hundred countries of the world.

There are differences in the income and the means and ways of earnings. Only 25 years have passed when China embarked on the campaign of economic reforms. It began to take steps on the way of reformed economic development only from 1978.

That year per capita income of Chinese people was 3 thousand 6 hundred and 22 Nepalese rupees but last year it was 13 thousand 9 hundred and 44 Yuan that mean 1 lakh 29 thousand 8 hundred and 19 Nepali rupees.

Short journey, long achievement. The Chinese people must feel happy   But they do not agree to what they rightly deserve.

Therefore on the occasion of seeing us off from Yichang city, which is nicknamed as General's city and where more than four dozen Nepalese are studying, the city's party publicity chief Zhao Juhai said us in front of the hotel Taohualing Where king Gyanendra had stayed during his last trip -There are a lot of things to be done, so we can not remain satisfied.

Zhang Zhijun, the vice minister of the Chinese communist party's International department is in total agreement with him . He said- How can we be satisfied when three crores of our village people are facing the problem of food, shelters and clothes, the living condition of six crore people are poor and two crore people in the cities are down trodden.

In this city of Yi Chang was born Lin Biao. He was named heir by Mao Tse Tung instead of Liu Shaoqi who was in favor of reforms. Liu Shaoqi was forced out from power and sent to exile where he had a lonely death.

Lin Biao failed in his conspiracy to capture the powers of Mao in the second extended meeting of the 9 th central committee which was held in the beautiful mountainous area of Lushan . After failure of his conspiracy, Lin Biao with   his wife Ye Chun & son Lin Liguo died in mid air explosion above the desert of Mongolia while he was trying to escape to the Soviet Union on September 13,1971 .

In this city, now the construction of the largest hydro electric project in the world is in the last phase of completion.

After completion of this 22 thousand and 4 hundred megawatt capacity project, China will have sufficient quantity of electricity from the year 2009.

China surpassed Japan by becoming the number one producer of consumer goods in Asia and the third biggest exporter in the world.

By this rate of development, it is roughly estimated that in the next nine years it will be above Japan and by 2039 it will surpass the United States of America .

The World Bank had forecasted in 2003 that China will not have to wait even up to 2035 to achieve this target.

Moreover, the World Bank's first economic advisor Dr. Lawrence H. Summers had forecasted in 1993 that china may not need 2015 to surpass United States .

 False Accounting

Small nations have their own problems, big country have their own. When you begin to earn, the problem of accounts confront you . Two years ago, such problem was faced by China , under which it had to survey in order to estimate its own real income. In the beginning of that year it estimated it's production was 122.8 trillion. But some mistakes were found, while calculating, it was found that in it 20843 billion is missing somewhere.

Even  that  missing account is sufficient to cover the one year's budget of Turkey or Indonesia . This amount is 149 times higher than this year's budget read by Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat in the Nepalese Parliament last Month- and 40 percent of India 's. The present challenge before the Chinese Communist Party of 7 crore and 80 Lakh members is to manage   misappropriation of the accounts and to control the corruption.

As the saying goes that perversion also breeds along with development. China is also not free from this menace.

Ability, not nepotism counts in China . Ability gets encouragement and crime gets punishment.

Had it not been so, last year courts would not have endorsed the arrest of 20 thousand 4 hundred and 25 persons. And last year 22 thousand 1 hundred and 79 persons were committed for economic offences. It is also another example that last year 43 thousand 7 hundred and 57 government employees were charged for not fulfilling their duties to serve the people   and the minister of Land and natural resources Tian Fansuan was dismissed.

  Formula of success

If you visit a Chinese city and make your impression, it will be too early. After six months if you reach the same place, you will get that its style and landscapes have changed unimaginably.

Attraction for foreign investment, guarantee of profit and round the clock conservation are some of the widely acclaimed specialties of China .

Perhaps due to the faith on return from their investments, the foreign direct Investment in China was 622.4 Billion US dollars last year. This is the second largest amount of direct foreign investment in the world. It is 322 times greater than the annual budget of  Nepal . At present 5 lakh (0.5million) foreign trading organizations are operating in China . 450 out of the biggest 500 multinational companies of the world are making profit easily there. Due to these investments too Chinese people are getting good amount of employment.

  What is the formula of China 's success ?

After the political conflict with Khruschove, there was a tough   war on the island of Chenyan . Soviet union had withdrawn it's hand in the middle way. From 1966 due to internal conflicts and enmity in the name of cultural revolution, China's prominent leaders like 80 year old acting chairman Tong Biwu, General He Lung, Marshals Ye jianYing, Fu Sian Chiyan, Wang Chen, Nie Rongzhen, Commander in Chief Luo Ruiqing, Generals like Peng Tehui, who had fought Americans in the Korean war, standing committee members Like Pen cheng, Wu Han, Yang ShangKun, Lu Dingyi, foreign minister Chen Yi, the only surviving   founder member after Mao, Chen yun, defence minister Zhu Teh ( Zu deh)  ,political bureau member and vice premier Po-Yipo, Li xiannian , Liu Lantao and the leader Like Deng XioBing ,who was General secretary for 10 years were persecuted. 34 thousand 9 hundred and 11 party workers were killed & injured by irresponsible Red-guards. The Red guards also turned 38 high ranking leaders of the government and party into physically disabled stage.

During the Cultural Revolution 93 full and alternate central committee members, 30 members of the Chinese people's Congress, 47 members of the advisory committee and 19 leaders from other parties were dislocated. During this ten year long self-destructing Cultural Revolution , China was also ruined economically. The Chinese diplomats say that learning lessons from the past is the main "basis for this unprecedented progress in short period & for this -political stability is the most "  for example, Ai Ping, the Director General of  the International Department of the Chinese Communist party says- our way is a little different from the models of many European and Asian governments . Every country has it's own roadmap of progress and democracy but we believe more on the five yearly development plans than five yearly elections. to remain in the   leadership for five years might be  concentrating  only on his own election  constituency that's why   return to power any how is not our aim .By doing So, there may be individual development but that can not ensure the guarantee of   the total progress of the country .

Some people would have their ideological differences with China but no one can deny the Chinese people's  spectacular progress made in the present world . Being a good neighbor we Nepalese are happy over the success of our Northern friend . Now what kind of assistances we want and solicit for our progress depends on the   initiative of the seven parties and the Maoist friends who have influence on policy making.

The railways have reached to the other side of the  Himalayas . There are no shortages of fuels too there. "There is gold in Lhasa but my ears are empty" this Nepalese saying is now out of date. We should not remain ashamed touching our empty ear. We are already late to talk to Beijing .

The broadsheet and the National media are owned by the "rich and elites’ with substantial business interest in the capital

Yubaraj Ghimire, Chief Editor, The Samaya Weekly, Nepal

Free media does not always lead to democracy, but it flourishes the most in democracy. This is something which has been witnessed more distinctly in Nepal , especially in the past 16 years, mainly after the advent of democracy. Big and private investment in the media sector offered major challenge to the Government controlled media. Journalism took a more competitive, professional and credible form. But the parallel or rival missionary zeal was also equally visible.

The media which did exist even before 1990 continued to operate and expand, thanks to a conducive political system called democracy. But they continued to defile democracy even suggesting that king’s rule was far more preferable. Failure of individual ministers during the period was projected as failure of democracy. Perhaps the takers of what happened on October 4, 2001 or February 1, 2005 and some media support to the move, especially the later, was not entirely out of fear.

Secondly, pro-democracy mission of journalism, helped political parties to continue to ignore not only their failure, but their apathy towards the conflict which was growing fast in size and power to weaken democracy. Major political parties including the Congress and the UML even failed to formulate a clear party stance on the conflict until the first five or six years after its eruption. Although most mainstream media were relentlessly advocating for the settlement of the conflict through dialogue.

It is also equally interesting to see the role Nepalese media played during the state of emergency followed by King’s takeover on Feb 1, 2005 . As the government swooped down on the media, the later responded broadly in four categories:

1. Government sector media and their private allies supported the takeover and suspension of fundamental rights including freedom of expression.

2. All the Broad sheet dailies adopted a policy of indifference—no support and no opposition to the Royal move. But some of them later turned aggressively anti- monarchy after the government came under severe warning against its repressive measures.

3. A large number of weekly and other periodicals initially demonstrated a symbolic gesture by keeping editorial and opinion space blank, and took more brazenly anti- king posture later. And,

4. Some defied censorship and put their views in black and while against the royal move.

But unlike media’s divided stance on the absolute monarchy versus democracy, there has been sort of unanimity on negotiated settlement of conflict. The intrinsic issues related with the conflict have not got serious attention of the media. One reason of this is perhaps the composition or ownership of what we call the National media, both print and electronic. FM stations with much wider reach are a different story.

Coming on the ownership issue, the broadsheet and the National media (both print and televisions) are owned by the "rich and elites’ with substantial business interest in the capital. Their way of looking into existing or potential conflicts would not have a sense of empathy or concern.

The fact that all of them advocate for peace and negotiated settlement of the conflict could be because they actually believe that being the best way to settle it. But will they raise their voice in the same intensity if the conflict would be only a rural phenomenon with no impact in the capital or urban areas where they have substantial business interest? Role of a regional paper or a rural paper would be different on such issues than the national paper.

Conclusions:

Noam Chomsky has often accused media of being a tool in the hands of larger interest group. In the context of US, he has said on many occasions that bigger power need to create some ‘Monsters’—like US ‘created’ Cuba and Iraq to defeat and establish its power. But in our context, not seeing the major problems when they are under current also may lead to a situation which can turn into a monster. Tackling Maoists problem five years ago would have been far easier than now. It was as much as the failure of media as that of the Government and the Political parties.

But again let’s come back to the recent negotiation process. The Government has involved civil society, NGO and bar into the monitoring process. Rightly, it left out the media. It was a clear acknowledgement that no matter whether government assigns such role or not to the media, it has a duty to monitor conflict and peace initiatives.

In India ’s Assam , noted author Indira Goswami even acted as a mediator in the dialogue with United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), a secessionist outfit. In another less glorious case, correspondent of a South Indian paper, Nakeeran negotiated for the release of some people held hostage by noted bandit Veerappan.

In our own context, Maoist leader Prachanda took the first step towards likely over ground politics by giving series of interviews to the media. beginning with Times of India last year. This definitely helped the other side of the conflict to formulate their position once Prachanda’s publicly stated bottom-line were spelt out.

May be as some think, media was ‘used’, but as events unfold now, it was in good faith and towards resolution of the conflict. This is the role, of course with variation of time and place that Media has played in Nepal towards constructive reporting or creating situation for resolution of conflict. Same concern is expected of the media in averting or stalling the future conflict before it surfaces and plays havoc. Excerpts from the author's paper presented recently at a seminar organized by CETS/FES in Lalitpur-ed.

Prof. Dr. Guna Nidhi Sharma, T.U, Nepal

Although Nepal’s development history in many respects begins in the 1950s its resource base, territorial integrity and institutional framework that serve as the initial condition for future development were shaped long ago, covering the period before and after 1816, the year when its geography took the present shape. With India lockedness on three sides, namely, east, south and west and a difficult topography to the north across the Border with China, life in Nepal has been virtually monotonous with almost more than 90% Indian impact. Many of our day to day behavior relating to economic, cultural, social, political and religious practices conform to their counterparts in India. The ruling elite in Nepal imitate Hindu, Muslim and British ways and not that of Buddhism that originated in its own soil. Until 1951 when Nepalese politics was liberated from Rana autocracy the society in Nepal interacted mainly with its southern counterpart. Even after 1951 the situation did not improve much. The treaties between Nepal and India in 1950 prefixed the modalities of relations between the two countries with commitments of national treatments to citizens with implications for the free movement of people across the border. This so called relation by the ruling class is called 'especial' and 'most appropriate'. In support many other relations were devised in all areas of national concern. Economically both the countries are two in one. Since India is more than forty times bigger in size and commands a diversified economic structure along with the outcome of western technology imported during British rule and there after, many economic events in Nepal including official and nonofficial (private) decisions are passively adopted. This keeps governance business easier but directly or indirectly imposes shocks to Nepalese economy, society and politics thus causing the dynamics of destabilization. The western foreign aid mechanism, after 1961 when Nepal joined the World Bank, IMF and many other international and regional bodies and conventions, complimented this in imposing many policy shocks which were unmanageable for Nepal’s inherent administrative decision making related weaknesses. Conflicts in Nepal, therefore, are overwhelmingly explained by both internal as well as external factors with their roots in history, geography, society, culture, religion, foreign policy and above all, economics.

Geographical and Economic perspectives

Geographically, Nepal is divided into three different climatic zones with varying altitudes. Its landscape covers alpine, temperate, subtropical and tropical zones. High altitude zones are rocky and are less fertile and not fit for cultivation. This area, moreover, is economically suitable for tourism. However it covers large area and is thinly populated, its attribute in terms of resource efficiency is substantially low, except that it attracts foreign tourists. As a result, the area encompasses a higher proportion of more than 70% of the population living below the poverty line. However, there are some pockets and trekking routes which enjoy economic affluence through contacts with foreigners.

The green hills and plains, moreover, are rich in many respects and are suitable for gainful settlement. These areas have high economic viability in many forms like energetic people, soil fertility, diversity in vegetation and habitat etc. However, because of the urban centric policies and programs of HMG, the age old legal setup favoring inherited property and privileges, influential role of rural wealthy and urban elite in state and community affairs, absence of easy access to education, health, and other social opportunities and higher fertility rates of poor families, more than 50% of the population here fall below the poverty line. The hardship of life is furthered by the reduction of community land on which poor families overwhelmingly depend for their livelihood. The tarai plains, which is best in the economic sense, is also experiencing not less poverty caused by inequality and discrimination. The urban poverty is also of sizable magnitude.

Of course, a tradition bound Nepalese economy historically experiences inequality in income and wealth distribution when, in a situation of the low pace of industrialization and economic diversification, 50% of the cultivated land is owned by some 10% households. Even at the start of the 21st century the country has a sizable number of absentee landlords. Tenancy rights are not guaranteed and the credit system in the main is landed property biased. There is still the bonded labor system and the most deprived group in the country is the Dalit, whose literacy rate is only 18% and the life expectancy below 10 of the national average - around 51 years.

This implies that many poor Nepalese are deprived of productive assets and social opportunities and are living under absolute poverty. Consequently, they are unable to cope with misfortune, crowded family (as poor have higher fertility), landlessness (for whatever land is available to them is distributed to many family members as per the law of property right), low credit worthiness (since credit system is collateral based), high probability of losing productive assets (when they are deficient of surplus income), etc. Recent policies, in the name of economic growth, are biased towards capital intensity and technological sophistication, which rarely seem poor but uneducated, and low skilled mass friendly whose number is sizable - more than 50 % of the population. Policies, instead, are focused on macroeconomic perspectives of economic stability expressed in terms of national level indicators like budget deficit, foreign debt, money supply growth, rate of inflation, foreign exchange reserve, savings, investment, public expenditure and revenue and trade performance, and are less concerned with allocative efficiency, distributive justice and local self. The State, instead of becoming poor friendly and of the marginalized, is thus the facilitator of private sector working for the maximization of profit. The incentive is not for labor which has been the asset of a common Nepali whose number is substantial in families all over the country. As the government is present in selective commercialized pockets, which enjoy profitable activities, more than 80% of the rural areas are underdeveloped. Its reflection is underlined in the differences in per capita income, which is significant. Latest survey by CBS upholds that when Kathmandu and central development region enjoy Rs 24084.0 and Rs 9366.0 respectively, in per capita income, the far west registers only Rs.5928.0. The constancy in land productivity and the declining tendency in crop intensity too justify the reasoning that majority of people in Nepal fall outside the market net which deliberately enjoys policy focus. The high leakage of income indicated by greater (more than 30%) proportion of imports in GDP is also one of the major causes of rising unemployment (around 15% of the labor force), and under employment (50% of the labor force), when some 300 thousand youngsters are entering the labor market annually. All of them are responsible for the growing tendency of social and economic inequality (in a decade after 1990 the Gini coefficient has increased from 0.3 to 0.7), which, undoubtedly, serve as the fertile land for growing resentment and conflict breeding.

Social, Cultural and Religious background

The present day Nepal, not only in the territorial sense, is not the outcome of one, two or three decades. It has centuries of history. Its life style is shaped by ancient philosophies with their roots in Hindu, Buddhist and Muslim religions that prevailed in central, south, southeast and East Asia. The society governed primarily by Hindu and Muslim principles are most hierarchical, caste ridden, complex and discriminatory. Most of the cultural milieu in Nepal is determined within these religious fundamentals the manifestation of which is a society with many layers of socially privileged and under privileged. There are also the cases of underprivileged within under privileged groups. Although these groups lived in functional harmony for centuries, they sentimentally disliked each other. People were of the hope that democracy introduced in 1951 would complete the liberation movement with its residue as an egalitarian society. The situation, however, was different in that not only the traditional base of social management was continued by means of keeping all institutional setups including legal institutions, centralized bureaucracy and the educational and social feedback from British rule in India in tact, but also social engineers, designers and the policy makers were chosen mostly from privileged groups who deliberately undermined the historically derived social suppression which could multiply differences between have and have nots and cause more damage in future. What appears today are the accumulated and cumulative effect of those suppressions and discriminations between gender, castes, ethnicities, diversities and nationalities. Had the country thought timely of the right process of inclusion, participatory development, education and access to social opportunities, the country could have entered the take off stage as attained by South Korea, China and India.