Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Kathmandu : Undoubtedly the country is comparatively a smaller one; however, political undercurrents are high enough in Nepal that presumably will determine the future course and pattern of the country, politically speaking.

It appears that forces of different shades and colors with different political connotations have begun searching their "intimate ones" in order to match the other equally competent and strong force in any eventuality that brings about a dramatic political polarization in between and among the political parties now operating in the country.

To be blunt, the country is all set for a grand polarization wherein the theory of "blood is thicker than water" will be properly taken into account.

In effect, not so many people know that the first seed of polarization was sown in the jungles of ROLPA some where around October last year when the two communist veterans, UML's bam Dev Gautam and Comrade Prachanda of the CPN-M, representing their respective political entities have had presumably signed a six-point agreement whose sixth point at best had it that, "both the political parties would work effectively in order to turn the Kingdom into a Republican State ultimately".

The meeting of the two communists in the Rolpa jungles was taken up by the media but the important agreements arrived at in between the two political parties were ignored deliberately or otherwise.

It was this meeting between Prachanda and bam Dev Gautam that later is supposed to have made possible the November 22 agreement in between the SPA, then in agitation, and the Maoists under the aegis of Nepal's "traditional" neighbor-New Delhi for sure.

Now that things have come a long way since then, the political animals seated at different political parties have begun sending signals for public consumption as to what their inner intentions were and how the country's governing pattern should be. This is good in the sense that the lay men would have a choice which way to go: to abide by the communists' line of thinking or should adopt a rather soft line at times of the CA elections.

It is only but natural that "birds of same feather flock together" and this is exactly what is going to happen. The political birds with same color and creed will certainly go in search for their "ideological" origin that is the communists with the communists and the liberal democrats with their own breed.

With the sudden pronouncement of Prime Minister Koirala that he would prefer some space for the King meaning that he and his party would go in for a "ceremonial role" for the King , the speed of the would-be political polarization has taken a new turn.

The fact is that the UML, though called by the general mass as a party controlled by a set of luxurious communists, in its fifth convention has unequivocally said that the party would go in for a republican structure ultimately but for the time being the party would use the parliamentary platform which is what the party did for all along the past "democratic years".

This means that by soul and heart the UML is a party that champions the cause for a republican set up in the country.

The Maoists, let's admit the fact, have all along been telling that their ultimate documented policy were to free the country from the "autocracy" of the King which meant that the party will not settle for less than a republican set up come what may.

Given this back ground and given the two stronger communists' common line of consideration and thinking on the future set up of the country what becomes clear is that the other camp, that is of the liberal democrats, has ample reasons to rise to the occasion in order to checkmate the growing influence and the visible Himalayan strength of the Communists.

Let us intelligently presume that the UML and the Maoists will at a later stage be joined by meager communist parties which will only add to their already swelling and overwhelming strength.

It is this fear perhaps of being swept by the all pervasive strength and force of the communists combined from the country's political scene that Prime Minister Koirala and Sher Bahadur Deuba, the two heads of the two different congresses' have decided to go in for a "prestigious" unification of their respective parties.

Analysts conclude that the idea to go in for congress unification has domestic as well as international backing.

Obviously, the developed West would in no way want the proliferation of the communists in Nepal but instead prefer to appeal the "democratic –liberal forces" to come together in order to face the challenge that is "in the making" of the former.

Given the sudden "love" that has developed in between Deuba and Koirala in the recent days is meaningful and significant one in the sense that this unification would to a greater extent "change" the political scenario much to the chagrin of the communists. (Both the two estranged leaders have changed their minds upon their return from India . Is it a mere conjecture or some thing else?). If it is so then let's presume that India would very much want the Communists operating their politics below the liberals. How the communists would react to this "presumed" Indian gestures in favor of the liberals will have to be watched.

Such an eventuality would also encourage the other "liberals" housed in different camps to come up with a joint slogan at time of the CA elections.

And coming of the "liberals" together would certainly mean that the King will take a sigh of relief as he would find some in the streets who would be talking in favor of the continuation of the monarchical institution.

So the big-fight in between the communists and the liberal forces has already begun. Nevertheless, it is yet to take a formal shape.

Koirala's favoring space for King encourages former panchas

Kathmandu: Encouraged by Koirala's pronouncement that the King too needed some space in the governance of the country, the other liberal forces who have had so far not dared to come to the streets or even make closed door meetings of their respective parties too have begun ventilating their views as regards the monarchy and the management of the arms.

It is not for nothing that staunch royalist and home minister in the erstwhile royal regime, Kamal Thapa, last week not only praised Koirala for his declaration in favor of the King but even termed Koirala as a statesman.

This means that in the days to come, the other former royalists housed in different political camps too would begin air out their ideas and views vis-à-vis the position of the King and the Maoists fresh political overtures that appears to have alerted them to the extent that veteran conspiratorial cum liberal cum royalist leader, Surya Bahadur Thapa-currently the captain of the Rastriiya Jan Shakti Party, said point blank that "the country must not and could not be thrown to the constituent assembly elections until and unless the management of the arms were secured".

This clearly means that Thapa and his party would wish the Maoists laying down their arms much ahead of the CA polls or else he and his party would oppose any such eventuality that leads to the CA hustings.

Thapa's expression have come at a time when his fellow colleague in the Congress, Koirala, too has made similar statements in the recent past which forces the analysts at this paper to conclude that both possessed the similar views simply because both represent the liberal democratic forces of the country and both are supposed, above all, close to the Indian establishment.

Should this then mean that WHATEVER Koirala and Thapa have had made known to the public through their statements in the recent days have had the "backing and the support" of the Indian establishment?

In effect, Thapa made these observations a day later of his meeting with Indian Ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee at a party organized by the Egyptian embassy at Hotel Radisson. Thapa and Mukherjee have had a long chat, says our own source who was himself present at the same reception. Thapa is presumed to be the closest friend of the Indian establishment in Nepal. Draw your own conclusions!

Going a bit further deep into that, if it were so even by mere conjecture, what could also be inferred is that India for the moment would not wish to see the Maoists entering into the Singh Durbar power corridors equipped with arms.

Should then the analysts conclude that Shyam Saran's "eternal friendship" with the Maoists have come to an end?

Or should the analysts conclude that the friendship has come to a halt under the intense pressures from the United States of America which is hell bent on restricting the Maoists entrance into the power structure of Nepal?

Be that as it may, the liberal forces scattered in various political camps appear to have been alerted by the countries in the developed West to come closer or face "annihilation".

Now that Kamal Thapa and Surya Bahadur Thapa have begun airing their ideas so the general presumption is that others too would toe the same line in a matter of weeks and months. This they would do in order for their own survival sake which is only but natural.

President Koirala's appeal for unification with the Congress-D must be seen in this light.

How the communist camps take these fresh overtures of the "liberals" will have to be watched.

But then yet what has become pretty clear by now that the US and her allies in Europe would do their best in order to reduce or say minimize the communists strength that is surely growing by each day more so after the Maoists began meeting the people, academicians, and civil society members.

The US has carrot and stick both for the Maoists

Kathmandu: UN emissary to Nepal Stiffan de Mistura lands in Delhi upon leaving Nepal last week.

He then meets the Indian Foreign Secretary and briefs him about his findings in Nepal.

Analysts presume, he would have lamented in front of Shyam Saran that he was not able to get a consensus letter to the UN from either the government or from the Maoists.

And Lo! Within thirty six hours of Mistura's departure from Nepali land, the Nepali public are given to understand that both the government and the Maoists have "happily" agreed to send an "identical letter" in the name of the UN inviting officially the international body to manage the arms and observe the CA polls as and when it takes place.

What would have happened to the fate of the identical letter if Mistura would not have met Indian Foreign Secretary?

Should this mean that Indian establishment through her envoy in Nepal managed this identical letter? Presumably yes!

However, the enigma behind two separate but identical letters to the UN continues to boggle the minds of the Nepali intellectuals. If the letters were identical in content and the objective then why the need of two separate letters?

Perhaps it is where the government side slipped for the general assumption has been that Prachanda very tactfully "legitimized" his party in the comity of nations. The trick lay here admit Nepali academicians. Now the US will have to think twice as to what to do with this party which remains yet in her list of the terrorists.

It is altogether a different matter that Mistura ignored the Chinese stake in Nepal's peace settlement and went straight to Delhi for reasons known best to him and his boss back in New York.

Nevertheless, the Chinese were smart enough and sent their own high powered delegation to Nepal immediately after Mistura left Katmandu for Delhi to get the "details" of what mechanisms were being developed here in order to settle the government-Maoists dispute. The Chinese delegation arrival in town was not only a timely one but it also sent indications here and there that Nepali establishment can't ignore China.

In doing so, the Chinese government in its own way signaled the Nepali establishment that they will "themselves" take proper "care" of their stakes and interests in Nepal.

As if this were not enough, the United States too sent a high powered Senator Arlen Specter to get the details of what mechanisms were being devised by this country in order to bring in the Maoists in the competitive politics?

Not very surprisingly, Senator Specter repeated the same concerns and views vis-à-vis the Maoists and point blank said that "the US under the Patriotic Act (2001) has designated the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists a terrorist organization in the Terrorist Exclusion List and that Maoists organization could be removed from a terrorist list if they give up arms and follow democracy".

This means that the US has yet not thought of lifting the tag what it has for the Maoists at the moment but has hinted that it could think on that if the Maoists laid down their arms and follow the norms of competitive politics.

Not very good words for the Maoists from the US side as usual.

This is what has been exactly said June 28 by the American Ambassador James F Moriarty of the Maoists.

Both Moriarty and Senator Specter abundantly hint that they will not digest the entrance of the Maoists in the government or whatsoever unless the rebels laid down their arms.

The Maoists have made it known to all that they will not do so come what may.

Nevertheless, Specter has some mild words for the Maoists as well. He says, "We are anxious to see rehabilitation. We are anxious to see a terrorist organization renounce terrorism…..If you (Maoists) compose yourself in democratic process in a law abiding way, we will respect that and deal with you in the same manner".

Analyzing Specter's statement what comes to the surface is that the US has carrot and sticks both for the Maoists.

But then yet, if one were to ponder over what Arlen Specter said before leaving Kathmandu the other day makes it abundantly clear that the US will not be providing any sort of financial assistances to this beleaguered country if the Koirala establishment allowed the entrance of the Maoists into the government with arms.

The US position appears not to have changed that much even if the Maoists and the government have had inked several agreements that is presumed to be heading for a peaceful settlement.

How the Maoists react to what Arlen Specter said of them will have to be carefully watched and analyzed.

Koirala too last week hinted that the Maoists with arms will not be inducted in the government.

Things appear to have become tricky suddenly.

How the conflicting sides tackle the new unfolding events will be interesting to watch.

Pondering over Prachanda's fresh Siliguri , India trip

Kathmandu: If one were to believe the media reports that have appeared in the recent days, what is admittedly for sure is that the Maoists have been subjected to a sort of tremendous pressure both from their fraternal organizations like the COMPOSA and the RIM.

Nepali media report that Comrade Prachanda and his second man in the party-veteran ideologue Dr. Bhattarai, were in Siliguri, India not only, as has been given to understand by the Maoists, to see their colleague currently in Siliguri jail, Comrade Kiran Vaidya, but also to "cool down" their comrade in arms in India who appear not to be that happy with the Nepali Maoists changing their "revolutionary credentials".

The Nepall Maoists leaders are reported to have been taken to task by their Indian friends and more so by those colleagues who are currently housed in the COMPOSA and the RIM.

Comrades from both the revolutionary parties'- the RIM and the COMPOSA- expressed their serious concern over the Nepali Maoists' changed attitudes in the recent months wherein the latter have exhibited their strong desire to enter into the government abandoning their real revolutionary goals and objectives.

Reports say that Comrade Azad who belongs to the Indian Communist Party-M has gone to the extent in reminding Comrade Prachanda not to dream that his entrance into the Nepal's mainstream politics would in any way changed the mind-set of the Indian establishment towards Nepal.

Talking to one Indian newspaper comrade Azad has said, add the Nepali media coverage, that Comrade Prachanda instead of demanding a complete halt of the expansionist Indian continued interference in exclusive Nepali affairs, is thinking that his party's entrance in Nepal's competitive politics would in more ways than one would have a positive impact on the minds of the Indian Maoists.

"This is a matter of serious concern", said Azad in the said interview, adds the Nepali weekly Dristi dated 15 August.

Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai during their sojourn to Siliguri appear to have cleared their perception to their Indian friends.

The comrades in COMPOSA appear to have been taken aback to watch the nepali Maoists, who concurrently are said to be one of the founding fathers of the South Asian Confederation of the Communists, changing their minds and that too all of a sudden and that too without consulting their own friends in the COMPOSA.

The COMPOSA is reportedly disturbed to see the possibility of the Nepali Maoists laying down their arms.

However, one Maoists leader, Ananta, has made it clear that no such meetings as such have taken place in Siliguri, as reported by the Nepali media.

As if this were not enough for the Maoists, the Dristi weekly further states that even the Revolutionary International Movement-RIM-is thinking of penalizing the Nepal's Maoists party by expelling the party from the RIM membership. It has been revealed that the Nepali Maoists some time ago have had aired that the top leadership of the RIM should go to Nepali Maoists.

The paper states that it is not for the first time that the Nepali Maoists did not consult the RIM authorites. They did it so in the past as well which appears to have made the RIM furious.

It is told that a member of the RIM, Li Ernesto and even the central GS of the RIM, Mr. Bob Awakin, have had already either met Prachanda or at least met each other over telephone.

The Dristi weekly confirms that Nepali Maoists leaders were not allowed by the Indian authorities to see their jailed leader Comrade Vaidya.

Commenting on these developments, comrade Ananta says that " India wants to get involved in each and every political processes that lead to peace in Nepal".

All these put together, says Ananta-the Maoist leader, that what could be concluded is that the Indian establishment is exhibiting its hardened posture towards the Maoists of late.

Analyzing all the pieces put together what comes to the mind of the analysts is that the Nepali Maoists would very much want to enter into the competitive politics and this they would do even if they have had to invite the wrath from their old and time tested international and regional friends.

CPN-M is not the "eighth party in alliance", says Dr. Bhattarai

Kathmandu : Maoists ideologue, Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai, says forcefully that his party is not and should be not termed as the "eighth party" as some have begun interpreting on this line.

"We are a different party because we adhere to some different goals and objectives and hence we can't be taken for granted as the eighth party in alliances", says Bhattarai firmly.

Regarding the laying down of their arms, Bhattarai bluntly says no unless the institutionalization of a newly structured forward looking state is ensured or there is a full guarantee that a Loktantric democratic system will be in place.

"Prior to these, we will never lay down our arms", adds Bhattarai.

Not very surprisingly then he sees foreign designs when his party is told to lay down their arms prior to the constituent assembly polls.

He then further sees that there has been a calculated design in disarming them with an aim to damage the prospects of peace talks with the government that is currently underway in order to thwart the institutionalization of peace and Loktantric order in the nation.

But then yet he admits that his party was ready to enter into the mainstream politics of the country which should not be an old one but a new which ensured the forward looking proposals pushed by his party that is backed by the freshly concluded Movement-2.

He then elaborates as to which system his party was ready to embrace. In his own words, "it should not be the current parliamentary system but some thing more forward looking than that and less than a system that is one step behind the People's democracy".

This means that Dr. Bhattarai will not settle for less come what may. Likewise, his party would in no way prefer to assimilate in the current political process but would want a system which is more sophisticated and people oriented.

Similarly, he also indicates that the arms currently under his party's command will not be laid down as demanded by some until and unless his party was provided enough guarantees in advance that a forward looking system would be in place.

"We are not and could be not the eighth part", Dr. Bhattarai concludes.

These observations Dr. Bhattarai has made in an article printed by Janadesh weekly dated 15 August.

Beijing to Kathmandu : Tibet rail

Kathmandu : The Chinese government last week announced that its Tibet railway project, which connected Beijing and Lhasa a month ago, would be stretched another 270 km at a cost of $3.7 billion. The Xinhua news agency quoting a government official indicated that the work on the extension to the city, which is 3,800 m (12,467 feet) above sea level, would begin next year and take three years to finish. The official also indicated Chinese government interest to link the rail all the way to Nepal .

Nepali businessmen appear to have taken this declaration in good stead and hope that the coming of the Chinese Railways closer to Nepali borders would reduce their dependence over India .

The fact is that at the moment Nepali markets are overwhelmed by Indian goods. The Nepalese can't have choice even if they pay for that.

If the Chinese train comes closer to Nepal 's borders, the businessmen here and the consumers will have choice aplenty .

Admit the consumers, the Chinese goods are comparatively cheaper and possess a good look as well.

ENBREF:

India should intervene in Nepal to keep Maoists away: BJP chief

Kathmandu: The Bharitaya Janata Party( India) President Rajnath Singh has said that India should attack Pakistan and Bangladesh to dismantle centers of terrorists bases there and speaking about Nepal, he said, India has delayed in intervening in Nepal. India should intervene in Nepal from time to time to keep Maoist away, he added.

ADB assistance for road improvement

Kathmandu: A press release issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has pledged a grant assistance of 55.2 million U.S. dollars to help expand and rehabilitate the feeder road system in Nepal. The statement further said that the project will construct and upgrade 10 feeder roads and one bridge, to a total of about 490 km, serving poor, isolated people mainly in hilly areas in the country.

$2 M Japanese assistance for refugees

Kathmandu: The Government of Japan while supporting UNHCR's 2006 Annual Programme Budget for Nepal, provided US $ two million for providing protection and assistance for the refugees in camps in eastern Nepal.

India and Nepal working on Hydropower projects: Indian Minister

Kathmandu: The Indian Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde told the parliament that India and Nepal were jointly working on some hydro power projects.

The minister said that five major projects having hydro-electric component namely, Karnali Multi-purpose Project, Pancheshwar Multi-purpose Project, Sapta Kosi High Dam Multi-purpose Project and Sun Kosi Storage-cum-Diversion Scheme, Burhi Gandaki Hydroelectric project and Upper Karnali Hydroelectric Project, were under discussion at various levels, Indian media reports.

Yet another fresh opportunity for Nepal to face miserable diplomatic defeat at the hands of India.

India urged to avoid river linking project

Kathmandu: "The Indian inter-river linking mega project will pose a severe threat to the environment, ecology and economy in the region", Water experts from India, Nepal, Bangladesh, the US, Japan, Sweden, China, researchers, members of civil societies and environment activists attending a conference in Bangladesh while making a nine-point recommendations at the concluding session of the two-day International conference on Trans-boundary Water Issues: South Asian Cooperation in Dhaka suggested.

Yet another political upheaval in the making in the neighboring countries who will oppose to this big-brother's brilliant but devastating idea.