Wednesday, February 1, 2006

By Maheswor Bhakta Shrestha

Why Tourism in Gorkha?

Historically famous Gorkha offers the widest topographical variations, from 288 meters in the south to 8163 meters Manaslu peak in the north. Gorkha is the only district, connecting Terai region to alpine Tibetan plateau. In this titled land, only 9% of the area is arable where 79% of 288,000 people survive in subsistence farming. No wonder, Gorkha is the 23rd poorest districts of Nepal (ICIMOD Indicators of Development).

Due to the widest topographical variations, Gorkha district offers the greatest biological, ecological and cultural/ethnic diversity- a unique product for development tourism, which can offer an alternative source of employment and income for the local people.

Planning for tourism in Gorkha is for economical benefit of alternative employment for the locals, environmental conservation and to reinstate the historical glory.

Present state of Tourism in Gorkha

Most foreign tourists visit north Gorkha Manaslu area, which is opened since 1991. Some 8,100 trekkers have visited since then, and contributed about $ 2.14 million trek permit fees at US $ 90 per week. In the past decades, some 500 mountaineers in 55 expeditions attempted the peaks of Manaslu, Himalchuli and Ganesh Himal of Gorkha, thereby generating employment for 3500 people and royalty of Rs.41 million to the government.

Visitors to Gorkha Durbar/ Kali temple and Manokamna temples in the south are in the order of 10,000 persons and 450,000 pilgrims respectively, thereby generating Rs.5 million per annum in the 4 hotels of Gorkha bazaar and Rs. 240 million in Manokamana, including Rs.100 million from cable car ticket sales. The economic significance of tourism in these three areas of Gorkha now adds up to over Rs.245 million plus the amount spent by trekkers and mountaineers. How the local people and environment are benefiting from this visitor movement is a topic of study.

Planning for Tourism

Planning is the "designing of a desired future and of effective ways of bringing it about". The Gorkha District Development Plan 2059, ranked tourism as the third highest priority area for district development, after agriculture and infrastructure. The main objectives of tourism in the plan are to integrate efforts of all sectors, distribute benefits of tourism to rural areas, and preserve cultural, archeological and historic heritages. To achieve these objectives, the Plan has plans to involve private sector in tourism development, preserve historic, religious, natural and cultural sites; and to develop joint programs with neighboring districts.

The plan however, lacks to integrate programs for mountain tourism in north Gorkha, or to integrate activities of Manaslu Area Conservation Project (MCAP). Any tourism plan for Gorkha should design separate programs to promote mountain tourism in north Gorkha, soft trek and cultural tourism in middle Gorkha and historical, religious pilgrimage and archeological tourism in south Gorkha. These three areas have different tourism products to attract different clientele coming from different market sources. Due to low literacy (19%) in the north, the government has to develop infrastructure and enthuse local entrepreneurs to provide quality tourist services.

Issues in Planning for Tourism in Gorkha

The general issues for tourism planning include an integrated approach for development, benefit sharing with the locals for sustainability of projects, and a scheme of resource sharing between locals and outside agencies. Tourism projects should share outside expertise and investment with local materials and human resources.

Area specific planning issues include the opening of Syar Khola valley in north Gorkha for tourism activity, aerial access to the north with a STOL port at Prok in order to lengthen trekking season beyond September- November period; and to address the fragile ecological and cultural sensibilities of the area. Middle Gorkha offers unique features for the soft adventure and cultural treks around scenic view- points (Sirenchowk, Ajirkot, Upallokot, Sirandanda, Dharche, Barpak Dnada etc.) and famous Gurkhas heart land of Barapak, Kharibot, Siranchok etc. There are ideal places to develop model villages and pilgrim treks to Dudh Pokhari, Narad Kunda etc.

South Gorkha offers the historic heritage of Nepal, Royal Goddess Kali temple, Prithbi Park and traditional bazaar experience, the Nepal's most famous pilgrimage to goddess Manokamna and village experience around it. A tourism development plan of Gorkha can be very well integrated with those of the famous tourism circuit of Kathmandu- Gorkha- Pokhara­Lumbini- Chitwan in central Nepal.

# Condensed from a paper presented on June 12, 2005 at Nepal Tourism Board. The author is aviation, tourism and management consultant and can be reached at atmconsultQ wlink.com .np)

Text courtesy: The NTTR June 20 - 26, 2005. Thanks NTTR and the author-ed.

Rural Tourism in Nepalese Perspective: Challenge to make it Sustainable and More Pro-poor

- Rabi Jung Pandey, National Program Manager, TRPAP, Nepal

Rural tourism is a complex multi-faceted activity that includes special interest nature holidays and eco-tourism comprising walking, climbing, horse riding, adventure, sports, health, hunting, angling, educational travel, arts, heritage and in some areas, ethnic and cultural tourism. So, this type of tourism in reality is not totally a new concept. Globally, the rural tourism of the 1970s, 80s, 90s and 2000 is, however happening differently in several ways. It has been argued that the concept rural is connected with low population densities and open space, and with small-scale settlements, generally of less inhabitants, where farming, forestry and natural areas dominate land use.

Together with the technological revolution, the world of tourism had also experienced rapid expansion globally since the early 1950s. Because of this, there has been increase in international tourist arrivals, which have increased from 25 millions in 1950 to an estimated 1.6 billion by 2020 (WTO, 1999). Likewise, Nepal has also experienced significant growth in tourist arrivals, which were 6,179 in 1962 to 491,504 in 1999 (MoCTCA 2001). However, temporarily the figure has dropped down to 361,237 in 2001 and 338,132 in 2003 (MoCTCA 2004) due to several internal as well as external reasons.

Nepalese Perspective

Tourism in Nepal, comprises as one of the key development components, and will remain as significant sector forever for overall sustainable development. Moreover, the physical set up of the country has abundance of natural attractions (resources) and adventure to offer tourists of all kinds and from all over the world. Likewise, it includes several forms of directly and indirectly productive activity, where the possibilities of exporting manufactured goods are limited. In contrary to other developed and developing nations, Nepal cannot ignore tourism because of its multifaceted effects such as on the balance of payments situation, diversification of the economy, augmentation of revenues, and generation of employment opportunities directly and indirectly. In view of the fact that, rural tourism development in Nepal has received much attention in current tourism policy and 10th Five year plan as a means of income and employment generation, diversification and direct effect on local economies without having environmental and ecological adverse impact.

Due to nature of regional as well as global competitiveness, Nepal has bound to project its image as a unique tourist destination, in terms of quality for tourism product and services. Policy initiatives to be taken need to be directed towards diversification of tourism to new areas, addressing issues in the way of tourism promotion, rural community participation, private sector's involvement in tourism development, exploitation of the linkages between tourism and other sectors of the economy and backward and forward linkages. Moreover, further emphasis has to be given to promote rural tourism and to help local community to take part in the tourism related activities.

The Vulnerable Group

Tourism's strong contribution to economic growth is evident. In several cases, tourism's impact on people's access to natural resources or physical infrastructure has been identified as the most important benefit or concern. Tourism affects the livelihoods of the poor in multiple ways- economically, environmentally, socially and culturally. Impacts on livelihoods and not just income need to be assessed along with the variety of positive and negative effects. Differential impacts between poor groups, particularly the fairly poor and the poorest, can be expected. The poor are more vulnerable to the main negative impacts, such as conflicts with other livelihood strategies through loss of natural resources, and vulnerability due to local inflation. They face the greatest barriers to seizing economic opportunities created by tourism. Therefore, net direct gains are more likely to be experienced by 'the masses' than the poorest.

Prospects

Nepal offers an immense scope for rural tourism. The uniqueness that the country possesses, especially the natural as well as cultural attractions, has not been fully explored. To manage and to promote tourism in rural areas, sustainable tourism measures such as minimizing the impacts on environment, culture and protecting sensitive area bio-diversity have yet to be followed strictly.

Change in the global tourism patterns have prompted eco-tourists and adventure tourists to visit new rural areas and spend liberally to new destinations. Thus, change in expenditure patterns within outbound tourists globally is a positive sign for Nepalese tourism, especially to the rural community. It is commendable that, efforts have been taking as public private partnership to open up new areas and supplementing by HMG policies, rules and regulations on promoting and marketing the tourism products.

However, there remains more opportunities, tourism industry in Nepal could possess great potential for social and economic benefits if planned and directed from a pure business and development approach to a more open and community oriented approach which views tourism as a local resource. This approach will equally focus on ecological and human qualities of a destination area whereas it also adds business considerations.

5. Challenges

It has been realized that tourism activities involving many local people could have tremendous potential to reduce poverty at local level. However, despite the high potential of tourism to make a valuable contribution to the reduction of poverty, the occurrence of business and commercial interest only in city centers, has delivered limited benefits at the rural-level. Similarly, poor tourism linkages with the rural communities have remained as challenges.

Though, it was the priority agenda for several past decades, only in recent years, Nepal has taken step forward to promote tourism in the rural areas at high pace. This could be visualized looking at the plans and programmes revealed in the Ninth and Tenth Five Year Plans. To other parts of the world rural tourism has found to define differently as per their geophysics conditions. The most popular terminology's that have used for rural tourism is village tourism, eco-tourism, green tourism, cultural tourism, river tourism, sustainable tourism and so on. It does not matter how it has designated; the basic question lays how much benefit it has rendered for the betterment of the local community and how to make it sustainable and pro-poor.

In this regard, it is needed to have special attentions to link tourism with the community development. Firstly, attraction is a major component for tourism product, which needs to be identified locally as resource for tourism development. Moreover, to make the local community aware about their resources, a massive awareness campaign has to be followed letting them to know about the economic, socio-cultural, and environmental effects from the development of tourism. Secondly, different institutions and organizations at central, regional, and local levels need to play catalytic role to help local community to develop tourism in their areas on their own. Thirdly, focus on human resource development at local levels needs to be stressed, and finally, opportunities have to be given to the local community to enhance their better living standard with special credit support system.

Before really introducing tourism in the rural sector, it is equally important to pay attention on developing basic infrastructures that are needed for tourism development. Linking that rural sector with the urban settings either by air, road or trails, a careful assessment has to be done to provide shelter for tourists and other facilities including amusements. In general, when it is talked about infrastructure, this seems to be the task of the government. However, local community participation in this regard plays a pivotal role to make this dream turn into reality.

Likewise, to maintain the value for money to the tourists, quality and standards whether it is for urban tourism or rural settings are equally important. The local community involved in this sector need to be well trained. Training to provide basic skill in various sectors of the industry needs to be assessed. The basic programme on skill development and training has to be imparted particularly in hospitality and accommodation sector. Furthermore, local entrepreneurs have to be well trained on operations and management of their businesses.

Marketing and promotions, which are the most important and difficult tasks of the whole business, have to be tackled by the local community. Retention of the tourism earnings and the sustainability of the tourism industry depend on the efficient and effective participation of the local community. It has to be considered by each and every individual including local entrepreneurs that the reputation of the local tourism industry simply does not represent the image of that particular area,, but also it represents the whole nation.

For the sustainable development, a consolidated approach has to develop locally to enhance quality and standard of their products. Similarly, product-rating system has to be developed locally to be cost effective. For future prospective a system of getting feedback from the tourists needs to be adopted.

Initiatives Taken

Despite the high potential of tourism to make a valuable contribution to the reduction of poverty, the current mechanisms, with a preponderance of business and commercial interest centred in Kathmandu and other urban areas has been able to deliver only limited benefits at the rural-level. Similarly, with the exception of very few local service providers, there have been poor tourism linkages with the rural communities. Moreover, there still lacks many programmes and activities to counter this predicament and develop policy guidelines to support rural-based and environmentally sound tourism initiatives.

To address these and other problems, as a pilot programme Tourism for Rural Poverty Alleviation Programme (TRPAP) has been in operation to support His Majesty's Government of Nepal (HMG/N) to formulate policies for sustainable tourism development and to create an enabling environment for poverty reduction in rural areas through pro-poor tourism. The Programme is in the way to serve as an appropriate vehicle to provide improvements in living standards and achieve sustainable tourism activity since September 2001. This Pilot Programme basically focused on six districts at 48 VDCs, has focused primarily on the disadvantaged and discriminated sections of Nepal's rural population especially women, lower caste groups and ethnic minorities who live below the poverty line. It is providing assistance for the development of institutional mechanisms to ensure sustainability of tourism development through local ownership in terms of decision-making, implementation and operation of tourism ventures/activities.

Likewise, in order to disseminate tourism benefits to the local people, efforts has been initiated to work closely with the community by various government institutions, private sectors, NGOs and INGOs. These organizations with emphasis on various tourism activities have seen to established and open up new frontier by empowering local people to get involved in community based tourism and thus helping to eradicate poverty from rural areas. Text courtesy: Village Tourism Promotion Forum-Nepal Souvenir issue 2005.

Thanks the author and VITOF-ed

Understanding real
Chepang Life

-Rajeev Dangol, Nepal

`Chepang'. When this word is spelled a picture that comes in everyone's mind is of the people who live an extremely backward life in the hills. They were not just living a life of nomads in primitive times but are also one of the groups that doesn't easily mingle with other communities in the society for any cause or wants. The Chepangs inhabit in the districts of Makwanpur, Gorkha and Dhading are obsessed with the bat meat. The art of bat hunting has been passed down for generations where they use a tall net to trap the bats at night. The scarcity of food must have led them to become native bat eaters, which has now become a common trend and a culture. In order to attract bats, the Chepang hunters make a special kind of noise.

The subsistence economy of Chepangs is based on forest resources. With the changing times, they are emerging as horticulturists as well. It is felt that their religion and culture are highly influenced by Tamangs. Chepangs settlement spreads from an elevation of 1000 to 2400 meters, though some are also found in lower altitudes. Chepangs, who live in the central regions of Nepal, are also known as Chyobang or Chewang. Under the Chepang Development Programme, they are also known as `Prajas'.

A FAM trip comprising 31 representatives from private sectors, Sustainable Tourism Network (STN) and media took a four days trekking to the Chepang Hills in Chitwan on December 5, 2005 and was organized by Tourism for Rural Poverty Alleviation Program (TRPAP) and District Development Committee (DDC) of Chitwan. The FAM trip was aimed at promoting sustainable tourism development in the Chepang Hills of Chitwan. Out of the six districts TRPAP is working in Chitwan is one. Mainly TRPAP is active in four the VDCs, namely Kaule, siddi, Korak and Shaktikhor of Chitwan district and has identified the trail that starts from Hugdi Khola of Dhading to link all the above VDCs. The entire route goes through the scattered settlements of Chepangs which is why it has been named as the "Chepang-hills-Siraichuli trek". The trekking route that starts from Hugdi reaches Hattibang (14l0m), Siraichuli (1945m), Uppardangadi (1275m) and Shaktikhor (355m).

Hugdi is easily accessible by road and falls on the Mugling-­Narayanghat Highway. While reaching Hugdi one can trek on the same day to reach Hattibang, which takes only 5 hrs for a normal trekker. For the purpose, home stay facilities have been made available at Hattibang and Uppardangadi with minimum basic needs. Siraichuli (1945m) is approximately 2 hours walk from Hattibang and the highest point of Chitwan District. From the top of Siraichuli, a wide Himalayan ranges of Manaslu, Annapurna and Langtang can be viewed along with the enchanting scenes of surrounding hills and villages covered by mists, making one feel among the clouds. Siraichuli is also famous for a marvelous sunrise view it offers. Another attraction of the Chepang hills trail is the historical fort Upaerdangadhi- 1410m. Uperdangadhi is reached after another four hours walk from Siraichuli. Uperdangadhi is the fort built some 226 years ago during Bahadur Shah's regime. Straight downhill from Upardangadhi is Shaktikhor, a small settlement on the left bank of the Shakti khola. The place being lowland is linked by a motorable road and has ample lodges with average facilities for tourists. Sauraha and Meghauli is approximately 2 hrs ride from Shaktikhor.

"I really liked the route for its best natural diversity, Chepang settlements and rich lush green jungles with huge bird activities. So far developing itinerary is concerned, an eight to nine days package tour can be developed for tourists linking Chepang Hills Trail with Sauraha and Meghauli including a refreshing rafting course on Trishuli river on its first day. I think the most powerful assets for tourism development in this region are the Chepangs, themselves. Their culture and lifestyle can draw many special interest to tourists to Nepal if promoted well," opines Bijaya Pradhan, MD of Dream Nepal Tours and Travels. The rugged trails all along the route makes the trekking even more adventurous and joyful. The trail passes through the villages with lush green jungle full of broad-leafed trees including that of Rhododendron flowers, offering many opportunities for bird watching. More than 238 species of birds have been recorded so far in these jungles, some of which are threatened ones.

While these Chepangs were living a nomadic life, most of the land good for cultivation were occupied by other communities, leaving them only the arid, sloped, and stony land to choose from. And many of them even don't have a land of their own. During the dry season, because of the frequent famines, these Chepangs are forced to live with almost no food every year. Since there is ban on killing wild animals, they cannot hunt frequently as their ancestors did, making their life even harsh and miserable. Chepangs are also one of the untouchables of Nepal. "It has not been long since we have engaged in farming as most of us are squatters. The land that I am farming is not mine though I am planting crops to sustain my family. We have no other alternatives than to enter jungle during famines. I have three daughters and two sons", says Aita Ram Praja. The other groups living in these villages simultaneously with Chepangs are Giri, Puri, Gurung and Magars. Less then 10 percent Chepangs are literate and almost 90 percent of them are leading life under utter poverty. Out of which literacy rate among Chepang women is less than 1 percent. Not more than 5 Chepangs have passed SLC Examination (high school graduation test). "I got married when I was seventeen and have two children already in 4 years. I studied until class three and quit schooling. My husband does farming but he also works as a porter when it is needed," tells Sani Maya Praja one of the Chepang girls. The census of 2001 revealed that the population of Chepangs is 52, 237.

The sad reality is that some of them are still living a jungle life relying entirely on natural resources for food and shelter. They are at such impossible situation where they have no warm clothes to endure the harsh winters; some of them stay awake all night to the fireside until the warmth of sun comes in the morning. "Cold days are a problem for us as we have no blanket for all the family members and rags don't keep us warm all night. We have no money to buy warm clothes so we merely depend on fire heat for which sometimes we have to stay awake all night," informs one of the Prajas.

Amar Bahadur also complained TRPAP for not helping Chepangs establish home stays for tourists at their homes. "It's true that there are home stays in Hattibang and Uppardangadhi but none of them is owned by Chepangs," he added, but, the Village Tourism Advisor of TRPAP has a different story to tell. "Chepangs are extremely shy people. They are the real introverts and don't easily speak to the strangers. And at such conditions, we are working. However we have been able to bring awareness among a few of them but still there is much to be done. In fact after execution of TRPAP in these

villages, they have started receiving visitors already." informs Ram Hari Devkota, Village Tourism Advisor of TRPAP for Chitwan.However, the villages are yet to receive electricity.

"We had a plan to install a micro hydropower in the Shaktikhola but that plan failed as the water pressure was not enough. In the mean time, we are looking for alternatives," says Devkota.

Text courtesy: The NTTR 2006 issue. Thanks NTTR and the author-ed

Between Illusion and Reality

Guest Writer: Dr. Thomas A. Marks

Political Risk Consultant, Honolulu, Hawaii ( SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW Weekly Assessments & Briefings, Volume 4, No. 21, December 5, 2005)

With the issuing of the 12-point letter of understanding between the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist (CPN-M, or 'the Maoists') - and the agitating seven-party alliance, the conflict in Nepal has entered a dangerous period. This is recognized by all sides. Which way matters will swing is being portrayed as dependent upon decision-making in the palace, but of equal moment is what few seem inclined to discuss: the Maoists' 'real game'. The leader of the legal (Parliamentarian) Marxists, Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) General Secretary, Madhab Kumar Nepal, the public face of the agreement for the political parties, has put forth his belief that the Maoists have "developed a new maturity" in concluding that they are unable to complete their "capture of state power through the barrel of the gun." Consequently, they are willing to do this peacefully, which means, "If the Maoists resort to arms again, those in power will have to take the blame."

This would hardly seem a stable platform for bargaining with the Palace, particularly given Madhab's astonishing rider: "If the well-equipped Shah of Iran was uprooted by unarmed people, there is no reason why it can't happen in Nepal." Why the monarch would be even slightly interested in holding a discussion based upon such terms, apparently, is because the most important thing is 'peace'. Waving this flag, the political parties have, indeed, stormed back onto centre stage, making a bargain which is altruistic, Machiavellian, or simply suicidal, depending on how the cards fall. However this may be, their long-running battle with the palace has caused them to play 'peace' as the hand that will gain them both power and breathing room from their mortal foes, the Maoists. There is no 'peace', goes the stated logic, because there is no 'democracy'; and there is no 'democracy' because 'the Palace' insists upon violence. That this is historical falsification of the first order would be apparent to anyone who has even notional familiarity with the political history of Nepal

There is insurgency in Nepal due to shortcomings of the system that evolved during the democratic era. Those most responsible are the same individuals who have cut the present deal with the Maoists - not just the same parties but the same individuals. That this well-documented reality could somehow be blamed upon the Palace was a position that emerged in vibrant form only with the 'Royal Massacre' that replaced the previous monarch, Birendra, with his less-popular brother, Gyanendra. The latter's missteps have served to elevate the parties to the position they now hold as advocates of a 'democracy' they never practiced, either in power or within their own ranks. In reality, it is the nature of 'democracy' that has been the issue all along in the present struggle. For the Maoists, the choice has never been between 'absolute democracy' and 'autocratic monarchy', the terms used in the 12-point agreement. It has been between parliamentary democracy and 'people's democracy'. The former is portrayed as a Western concept. The latter is certainly also a Western concept, but in Nepal it is portrayed as 'Maoist'. (The very Western origin of Maoist ideological beliefs is regularly on display at the CPN-M's public gatherings, where place of honour is occupied by the pantheon of 'white gods plus one' - Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin, and Mao).

What 'absolute democracy' means for the Maoists, operationally, is the ability to knock from the battlefield their only tangible obstacle, the monarchy. What it means strategically is the ability to move beyond the gun to the ballot at this particular juncture in the struggle. It is what the Sandinistas did so adroitly, moving rapidly within 'democracy' to solidify what they had been after all along - people's democracy. Apologists go to some lengths to avoid discussing this aim, but it is the concrete manifestation of the 'dictatorship of the proletariat'. It turned out so badly for the Chinese that the Maoism espoused by the CPN-M is now completely rejected, alive only in South Asia and isolated pockets of Western anarchism.

That the Maoists have no intention of abandoning their strategic goal was made clear to cadres in the recent CPN-M leadership meetings in Rolpa. Whether they operationally will go the route of the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) in Ulster, actually decommissioning their arms, remains to be seen. There are too many unknowns, not least the nature of the Maoists' links with the newly formed Communist Party of India-Maoist, CPI-Maoist, created through a merging of the two principal Maoist insurgencies in India, and aggressively committed to violence as the only route to political power and social justice. In their statements, the two Maoisms have stated clearly that peaceful means are useful only so long as they facilitate the violent end.
Ironically, an important role in the emerging Maoist-UML alliance (with the remaining six parties figuring in as necessary) apparently has been played by members of the Indian 'legal Left', a catch-all term for those Marxists who participate in parliamentary democracy while disclaiming its ultimate legitimacy - the same position taken by the UML in Nepal. One the one hand, Indian Left participation offers some grounds for optimism, since the legal Left does not engage in insurgency (which is not the same thing as eschewing violence, something PIRA has demonstrated well in the Catholic ghettos of Ulster). On the other hand, it is also grounds for profound disquiet, since the 'terms of reference', as reflected in the 12-point agreement, are vague and contingent upon the surrender of the present Nepali Royal Government. This only heightens Nepali nationalist suspicions that what is being set in motion is a 'Sikkim solution'.

In fact, prisoners taken by the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) and documents captured clearly state that the present Maoist course is 'tactical', that the CPN-M will not compromise its ultimate goals: political power and 'people's democracy'. Even a 'peaceful' solution, then, depends upon the monarch and RNA being willing to accept a transition as witnessed in Cambodia under UNTAC (United Nations Transitional Authority), with the tremendous difference being the position of the monarchy. In Cambodia, the monarch became constitutional, but the 12-point agreement mentions only 'absolute democracy' (which means a departure of the monarchy, not just the monarch). This is not a minor discrepancy, and the manner in which the 12-point agreement appears to claim there is nothing for Gyanendra save exile, guarantees that it will not be considered seriously.

All eyes seem glued to the palace to see the next move. It is not hard to discern. In a situation where the political parties have committed themselves to obstruction, the Royal thinking should go, political forces must be allowed an outlet in new political parties. This is easier said than done. The scheduling of local and national elections is a first step; ensuring their success is the second; providing local security for the winners is the third. Absent local security, it will all be a paper drill. If, as seems likely, the conflict continues, counterinsurgency will proceed by using the local elections to restore local connections to the Centre.

Restoration of local democracy must occur behind a security shield and be the means for proper governance. Proper governance must include restoration of local democratic decision-making, micro-development, and local security. In this campaign, the political parties have adamantly refused to participate, seeing it as but a thinly disguised means to restore the previous and reviled panchayat system.

That the Government's approach should be considered controversial demonstrates the degree to which polarization and mistrust have poisoned the Nepali polity. Thus the Maoists have emerged as advocates of 'peace', and 'negotiations' are held up - not least by elements within the foreign presence in Nepal - as an alternative to waging counterinsurgency. In reality, as stated directly in the RNA's campaign plan, the goal is that counterinsurgency restores legitimate Government writ in such fashion and to such extent that the Maoists ultimately agree to reincorporation within the political system. The constant saw that 'there is no military solution' is just a demand for inaction. In reality, negotiations are always on the table but must be used as part of an overall approach to the conflict.

Unfortunately, it does not appear that the Maoists accept the common understanding of 'negotiations'. To the contrary, evidence supports a conclusion that the point of the current ceasefire is to further the armed struggle. Maoist exhortations to combatants continue to state that the old-order can only be addressed with violence. Fellow-travelers, continues the Party line, will be accepted as long as they are useful, but they will not have a meaningful role in the shaping and execution of 'New Democracy'. Nevertheless, it is felt by the Party that the political parties can play an important role, "with all forces against the autocratic monarchy centralizing [focusing] their assault against the autocratic monarchy from their respective positions, thereby creating a nationwide storm of democratic protest."

Absent the 'nonviolent' delivery of operational victory, however, plans have been laid and are being implemented for the resumption of the Maoist military assault within the overall strategy for the seizure of power. The 'nationwide storm' only has worth so long as it delivers by 'political means' that which can only be gained at greater cost through violent means. If this is the strategy, operational intent will include demonstrations in urban areas and attacks in rural areas to force the Government to fight on two fronts.  The RNA is aware of this to some extent, but it is unclear how much is being done to prepare.  

There are two pressing Government failures that have contributed to its present situation:   * The failure to address the information warfare side of the equation is causing serious problems. A key aspect of an information warfare campaign should be to bring the Indian Government back in the game in a positive manner. The impression of 'failure' and of 'democracy destroyed' that has gone unchecked has allowed the legal Marxists to support the elements of the ruling coalition at Delhi that seek to meddle in Nepal's affairs. The issue is rarely stated as such, but there are Left Wing elements (within India) who view India's own democracy as problematic, so they would like nothing more than to 'act out' against whatever force in Nepal can serve as a surrogate target. To that end, bringing the monarchy to its knees serves their immediate purposes.

This is not in India's best interests, keenly aware as it is that it has a growing Maoist problem on its hands within its own borders. The joint statements and activities of the Nepalese and Indian Maoists, together with an upsurge of activities on the ground in India, has led to the Center becoming much more energized in its approach to the lackluster State anti-militant campaigns.

It may be noted in passing that most analysts feel that India is central to any solution in Nepal. The notion that a Nepali relationship with China is an alternative to one with India is not viable. China is not willing to extend itself in any manner that can substantially assist in the present counterinsurgency, whereas India wants to help. It is simply being mired in the same domestic processes that are hampering Nepal itself. * The failure to implement some sort of solution to the local security dilemma places the security forces in an impossible situation. The invariable reason given in Kathmandu (a year ago, as now) for having no local security in place is 'the EU'.  The problem of foreign donor objections to local security mechanisms is known, but local security is as much a matter of C-2 command and control), transparency and semantics as anything else. The British, for instance, made local security the foundation of their entire Ulster effort through the 'national guard' mechanism of the Royal Irish Regiment (RIR). Likewise, the Colombians, facing the most profound legal challenges to local security in recent memory, have found an effective and sustainable way to protect areas through local forces.

Further, local security is indispensable.  There is no way to proceed in its absence.  As has been discussed time and again, the precise form of local security must be determined - it need not even be armed capacity. But it must be the capacity to inform and/or resist, pending reinforcement by the security forces. These, it bears observation, have improved, led by improvement in the quality of RNA junior and middle grade officers. In many ways, in fact, the senior service, the RNA, is not the same force it was several ears ago. Tactical and operational improvement, however, can make no headway in the absence of a strategy for victory.

This highlights the heart of the matter: there still is no articulation of 'why we fight', much less a comprehensive state (national) plan for counterinsurgency. There is an RNA plan, and this does bring along elements of the state at times, but there is no designated command authority that can bring together all facets of state power - much less the actual application of those assets. This cannot be the job of the monarch.

Democracy is the issue - upon that there is agreement. Regrettably, none of the contenders in the present struggle have demonstrated convincing commitment to a reality that moves beyond the word. Since the 12-point
agreement is not 'the answer', either, the prospects -absent what would be (for Nepali politicians) an uncharacteristic willingness to move beyond generalities to specifics - are for a resumption of violence at the end of the present extension of ceasefire.