Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Kathmandu: Nepali crisis is deepening with the approaching municipal elections.

Nepali politics is sure to take a new turn come January 20 when the agitating seven party alliances are all set and determined to bring a sea of men in the Kathmandu streets in order to show the establishment their strength.

It is this possible demonstration of the agitating seven that very fateful day which if not handled with proper care might create panic not only in Kathmandu but will have its profound impact in the entire country, politically speaking.

The establishment fears the penetration of the Maoists rebels in the seven party sponsored demonstrations on January 20 and hence has, better late than never, appealed the agitating conglomerate to come to talks in order to find a viable and amicable solution to their disgruntlements.

The agitating parties have summarily rejected the government offer by saying that it was their democratic rights to come to the streets and hence they would do according to their will and scheduled programs.

The Maoists who have vowed to disrupt the polls have begun showing their presence right here in Kathmandu by unleashing violence wherein they just the other day killed twelve plus policemen thereby hinting that they can do so in the future as well to indicate that they were not that weak as suggested by government authorities in the recent days.

The government has reasons to be in a panicky state presumably. Firstly, the agitating parties appear not to come to terms which means that it would be very difficult for the State authorities to maintain law and order if the proposed demonstration on Friday deflects from its "peaceful" overtures.

Secondly, the Maoists soon after the break of their unilaterally announced ceasefire that continued for all along four months, have come in a big way and appear determined to shake the very foundations of the law and order system of the country.

For the government, two problems have come at a time whose handling will be a hard task indeed if not an impossible one.

It is in keeping with this "between frying pan and fire" situation, the government appears to have forwarded its hands of cooperation with the agitating seven apparently with a sole desire to avert the would-be chaotic situation that the Friday's show-of-strength might bring in.

Matured political analysts say that since the time is running out and hence they see the urgency of the government and the agitators to come to a table to work out measures that allows both some space to deal with the emerging situation.

Handle with care or else some extraneous forces might begin fishing in Nepal's already troubled waters! The message should be clear.

President Koirala sees the need to reconcile with the King and hopes reciprocity!

Kathmandu: It is his habit of blowing hot and cold concurrently.

He is with the seven party agitating grouping. He is with the Maoists and gives an intuition that he is not with the rebels. He at times gives the indications that he is with the seven party alliances for some of his compulsions.

This is not all. He sends signals to the Indian authorities that he is with them in their bid to destabilize the Nepali monarchy. The other moment he also sends implied messages to the South Block mandarins that he can be with them only to threaten the monarchy but will not support their design to transform Nepal into Bhutan. After all a Nepali son will certainly have this feeling.

In the process, he signals the Western democracies to come to the salvage of this Himalayan Kingdom , sooner the better, which if allowed to be left to the benevolence of the REDS might turn to be a permanent citadel of the communists thereby eliminating even the traces of liberal and the democratic forces from this nation.

This means that he has begun feeling that the communists under the cover of the restoration of the democratic order are using him to the hilt.

Sooner or later the Nepali Congress President had to conclude these hard facts. Thanks that he has become conscious of the fact that the sweet rhetoric of the communists under the presumed instigation of Nepal's southern neighbor carried him away.

It is in this light of the grand realization of the real-politicking going behind the curtain that President Koirala invited some democracy-loving countries at his private residence Monday afternoon and appealed them all to help him in his fresh bid at a "reconciliation" with the estranged monarch.

This means that Koirala still believes that a sort of understanding could be made with the monarch provided the latter differed with the already approaching municipal polls.

In saying so Koirala amply hints that he can be of substantial support to the King if he postponed the polls. This he has yet to clarify, though.

This is noteworthy indeed.

Talking of the need for reconciliation with the King, Koirala apparently hints that in the absence of such reconciliation in between all the legitimate constitutional forces of the country, the nation-state might further be subjected to foreign intervention which is what he wants to avoid and skillfully turn aside.

Should this mean that Koirala has come to understand the ulterior motives of India like what his late brother B.P.Koirala had envisioned some thirty years ago?

To recall, late Koirala had come to his motherland with the idea of having understanding with the monarch for he saw the need for the democratic forces to come closer to the monarchy and vice versa in order to safeguard the nation's independence and, territorial integrity.

Late Koirala was so confident of the Nepali monarchy's permanence in the country that he even said that democracy and the monarchy can not only go together but also were a sine qua non for this Himalayan Kingdom to exist as a glorious nation in the comity of nations.

It is this knowledge perchance that appears to have obligated President Girija Prasad Koirala to offer once again an emerald branch to the Nepali monarch.

In plain words: Koirala would love to sort out the difference with the monarch should the other camp reciprocated on time.

The invitation extended to foreign Ambassadors has come at a time when the seven party scheduled agitation in Kathmandu streets is not even five days to go. What does this mean? Surely it means that Koirala seeks the good offices of the "Democratic" Ambassadors in convincing the King and sort out the crises in the larger interest of the nation. Definitely, it does also indicate Koirala's inner consideration that should the polls be differed sine die, many of the issues confronting the nation could well be averted and a fresh start could be made in order to find a permanent solution to the country's imbroglio.

That Koirala is mentally disturbed with the likelihood of the impending polls being violently disturbed by the Maoists becomes clear from his appeal to the King to differ with the polls.

Look what he says without signaling that he is internally disturbed: " We can together wield pressure on the Maoists for a truce if the polls are withdrawn". He then emphatically reiterates that if the monarch listens to his plea, he can do it which means that he can press the Maoists to announce yet another ceasefire. Should this mean that the Maoists still revere him as a senior congressman?

In the process, Koirala makes it profusely clear that "the alliance was not averse to taking up the issue of announcing a ceasefire with the Maoists leadership if the government withdraws the municipal elections".

But is he speaking with full authority on behalf of the entire alliance conglomerate or on his own is yet unclear.

The UML for example perhaps will find it difficult in swallowing the Koirala bitter pill. Should this then mean that Koirala would not mind in backing out of the alliance if the King withdrew the polls as per his request?

The possibilities appear to be there as much as is visible from Koirala's statements made in front of the "democracy loving countries".

All in all, Koirala's statement unfolds the following: his intention is to reconcile with the King; he is in favor of pressing the rebels for the announcement of yet another ceasefire; he is now afraid of the growing strength of the REDS; he is equally concerned of the likelihood of certain inimical forces outside Nepali territory to fish in Nepal's troubled waters should the crisis prolong.

Now the million dollar question is: Who will convince the King? And equally important is the fact that how the King reacts to fresh Koirala overtures?

Be that as it may, Koirala till this day is a staunch supporter of monarchy in the country and that he would wish the King to be in the camp of the liberal and the democratic forces in order to balance the growing threats of the communists. By and by, Koirala is also suspect of the Indian designs or else he would not have like his late brother so passionately advanced the idea of reconciliation.

Is it that he has sensed some foul play being cooked somewhere? Who else better knows than Koirala and the men in his coterie?

United Kingdom should see Nepal through her own eyes

-Dr. Surya Subedi, Leeds University , UK

Kathmandu: A Nepali scholar stationed in the United Kingdom lamented the other day at a program here for having not been able to refute the widely publicized notion in the West that Nepal as a nation-state lay in the backyard of India.

Talking at a select gathering sponsored by the Faculty of Law, T.U, Professor Dr. Surya Subedi who is widely acclaimed as a specialist in International Law said that Nepali intellectuals and academia must now concentrate their entire efforts in bringing to a sort of debate the entire gamut of Nepal-India bilateral ties.

He opines in his own words, "A matured, informed intellectual debate must commence at the earliest on how should Nepal's relations with neighboring India be managed" ?

He also suggested the Nepali academia including those who have had an opportunity to serve Nepal's diplomatic missions in the past to "learn from the past mistakes and failures".

In his views, Nepal-India relations must be democratized and made transparent and that before signing any treaty-treaties with the other partner, the details must be brought under intense discussion so that people at all the levels get to know the various aspects contained in the would be agreement.

According to him, diplomacy is in essence the art of negotiation, which entails give and take.

"I feel we have yet to mature" is how summarized Nepal's conduct of relations implying that the immaturity of the nepali diplomats at times of signing of the treaties have all contributed to Nepal's loss every time.

Revealingly, the Nepali scholar suggested India that if she were to develop herself as an actor in the region and the world at large, she must sympathies with her smaller neighbors. In saying so he implied that India's growing ambitions of assuming the role of a world actor in politics would demand India to change its hegemonic attitude to what she has been exhibiting more often than not in her conduct of relations with neighboring countries.

"It is heartening to note that this view is being at the moment well considered even by the Indian academic circles who are supposedly close to the South

Block power corridors, including former Ambassador K.V.Rajan", explained Dr. Subedi.

To a query from the floor, Dr. Subedi opined that at best we the Nepalese ourselves should be left to sort out our internal differences. If we can not then and then only the UN could be invited to take care of our issues. "I see the UN can easily defuse the Nepal situation if provided an opportunity to offer her good offices", added De. Subedi.

Dr. Subedi who teaches at the Leeds University said that the United Kingdom must see Nepal through her own eyes instead of looking Nepal through the eyes of India which is what she at the moment has been doing.

In his concluding remarks, Dr. Subedi had a piece of suggestion to the confronting Nepal's legitimate forces.

"A political consensus backed by peaceful political-coexistence attitude is what we the Nepalese need today".

"Nepal must be left alone to solve her problem"

-Chinese diplomat in Kathmandu

Kathmandu: Nepal's southern neighbor seem really disturbed with China coming to the rescue of Nepal in the recent weeks.

China's supplying of the needed and the required arms and ammunitions to Nepal, it would seem, has brought several sleepless nights to the authorities manning South Block to the extent that Indian Foreign Secretary, Syam Saran, rushed to Beijing to "petition" the Chinese authorities not to "sale" arms to Nepal.

Saran's Beijing trip appears to have become redundant as the Chinese officials made it abundantly clear to the nervous Indian bureaucrat that "Nepal is an independent country and is free to import arms from any where in the world".

This statement was sufficient to further advance the nervousness of Shyam saran to the extent that he instantly summoned his representative in Kathmandu for "consultations".

That China did not provide any weightage to Indian FS "fervent plea" and that China continues to see Nepal events as internal issues of this country becomes crystal clear from what has been said Monday afternoon by one high level Chinese diplomat in Kathmandu when asked by an "interested" media man at Koirala's residence on China's attitude on Nepal (presumed).

Mr. Wu Quingjun, First Secretary at the Chinese embassy in Katmandu bluntly and very explicitly tells the media man that "Nepal must be left alone to solve her problem". (See The Himalayan Times dated 17 January 2006-ed).

The Chinese expression is sure to send spine-chilling waves in the powers-that-be in the South Block, New Delhi who have one point agenda: "penalize Nepal by isolating her from the world community".

Analysts say that it is for sure that the more India, or for that matter the countries comprising the "axis" pushes Nepal to the wall, the more she will be forced to look towards China, her traditional neighbor which possesses the distinction of having never poked its nose in Nepal's internal matters.

The message should be clear to all.

Ambassador Mukherjee, at the moment in New Delhi, is all prepared to talk to his defense and home minister on the growing Chinese love and respect for Nepal.

Telegraph adds: King Gyanendra is likely to pay an official visit to China this February. The visit is said to be taking place to commemorate the fifty-years of the establishment of Nepal-China diplomatic relations.

 Crack in the alliances over 12-point pact?

Kathmandu: Some sane minds still prevail in the Nepali Congress party, it is presumed.

The manner some high flying stalwarts of the congress have ventilated their anger in the recent days against the presumed violation of the spirit of the so-called pact that they have had with the Maoists contained in the twelve point agreement or for that matter understanding gives an impression that these congressmen have reasons to suspect the very longevity of the said agreement.

Known ideologue of the Congress, Narhari Acharya goes one step further and says that the twelve-point agreement needed proper clarity at the earliest or else it is sure to widen the differences in and among the alliance partners who have inked a pact with the rebels including his own party, the NC.

Acharya implies that interpretations vary from party to party while debating the points contained in the twelve point agreement.

This means that the seven party alliances have been interpreting their pact with the Maoists in a way that suits to them most politically which further facilitates the analysts to presume that by now the parties in agitation have already developed a sort of feeling that the Maoists mean different to different political groupings.

Talking about the Maoists increasing violence in the country, the freshly elected GS of the Congress party, Ram Chandra Poudel, says that "I criticize them, the Maoists, for defying the understanding.

He has asked the Maoists to abide by the pact by saying that the understanding recently reached between them does not allow the Maoists to murder and torture the innocent civilians and emphatically says "it was against the understanding".

Analysts say that slowly but steadily, the parties in agitation are coming to their sense.

German diplomat hints his country ready to mediate peace process

Kathmandu: Better late than never, a very powerful country in the developed West, Germany, which so far remained a silent watcher of the Nepal events appears to have concluded that it was time to speak and an opportune moment to ventilate her feelings as regards the possible mediatory role that she could offer in the peace building process in this beleaguered country.

In doing so, Germany has hinted that she was ready to offer her good offices provided (by implication) both the "warring factions" appreciated her mediatory role.

The German diplomat, Norbert Meyer, a Counselor at the German Embassy here further reminds all that "political targets can be reached not with violence but with negotiations".

In saying so, the German diplomat makes it clear that the present clash in between the State and the Maoists were of a political nature and hence that demanded "political solutions" and thus advises the concerned ones to "negotiate".

This means that Germany concludes that a military solution to the conflict could not bring solutions to the ongoing conflict.

The German expression also hints primarily the Maoists that taking up to the arms and resorting to "violence" could not facilitate the rebels to achieve their "political" targets. Concurrently, the expression also has some piece of advice to the State to initiate "negotiations" with the Maoists.

"Both the warring factions to the conflict should find a way out of the ongoing crisis through dialogue", is what the German diplomat, Mr. Meyer who is also the deputy chief of the mission says.

Mr. Meyer made these observations while talking to reporters last week after participating in a poster competition on ‘German language learning in Nepal’ organized by Goethe-Zentrum. He added that Germany and the European Union were willing to mediate in the peace process if both the warring factions to conflict called for their mediation.

All in all, Germany has for the first time expressed her competence and willingness to be of support to this country in resolving the present crisis provided both the archrivals approached her in that regard.

Political scientists at the Tribhuvan University when contacted to make comments on the fresh German willingness to offer her good offices to solving the Nepali conflict say that "since Germany is not a party to the ongoing conflict but have been registered as the connectors of various facets of the Nepali society and hence its role in the peace process can be acceptable to all".

ENBREF:

Nepal fears martial rule: Indian Media

Kathmandu : Giving high priority to the recent Maoists attack around Kathmandu , few Delhi based media organizations claimed that Nepal Army is preparing for massive show down following Maoists attack on Police and is on the move for a full offensive.

According to Indian media reports, Nepali troops were on high alerts after attacks around Kathmandu by the Maoist rebels killing 12 policemen.

A Kathmandu based Indian journalist, Sudeshna Sarkar writes, an audacious series of coordinated attacks by Maoist guerrillas in the heart of Kathmandu Valley that left 12 policemen dead and seven people injured has triggered fears of the imposition of martial law and other curbs by King Gyanendra.

Sarkar writes further, Nepal's major opposition parties, who are opposing Gyanendra's power grab of last year, said they were amazed that the rebels could launch simultaneous attacks in the Kathmandu Valley where the government might is concentrated.

India , China discuss Nepal situation

Kathmandu : India and China have held high level talks in Beijing about the political situation in Nepal , news paper reports indicate.

Indian secretary for foreign affairs Shyam Saran said at a press conference in Beijing that the talks between him and the Chinese foreign minister Li Zhaoxing also touched upon the Nepal issue.

According to the information received, Saran had told his Chinese counterpart that the political changes in Nepal and its degrading economic situation had concerned India . "I explained about the latest political situation in Nepal . I said that political changes and economic degradation there [ Nepal ] are a matter of concern for India because we share an open border between us," Saran said.

People's war hits economy badly: ADB

Kathmandu : With more than 12,000 people killed and 100,000 displaced, Nepal 's 10-year Maoist insurgency has not just had a human impact; it has also slowed the country's ailing economy, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

"If the conflict is allowed to continue, there will be a lot more social and economic losses. Many more lives will be lost and many more people will be denied the opportunity to improve their livelihood," Sultan Hafeez Rahman, said last week.

In the 1990s, Nepal 's annual economic growth averaged around a healthy 4.9 percent but the escalating insurgency saw this drop to an average of 1.9 percent between 2002 and 2004.

Cold wave toll rises

Kathmandu : The state-run Radio Nepal reported on Sunday that at least 31 people have died so far due to winter chill in the Terai belt of central Nepal since the beginning of January.

Of the total 31 cold wave deaths, 17 have been reported in Rautahat, eight in Parsa and six in Bara within last two weeks. Mostly children and the elderly have been affected by the freezing cold.

Independent observers believe that that toll may be even higher than the official claim and indicate that if no actions are initiated immediately by the government and some private sectors the number may raise to more than the expected number.

IFJ: Stop harassment of journalist in Chattisgarh , India

The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) is deeply concerned over the harassment and threat to the life of Kamlesh Paikra, a regional language journalist in the state of Chattisgarh.
"Intimidation of journalists and preventing them from carrying out their profession is unacceptable under any circumstances, but when reporting on conflict, journalists are already in a precarious position between combatant parties. Only when they are allowed to report independently and without fear, can a genuine democracy be said to be in place," said IFJ president Christopher Warren.
 Until December 2005, Kamlesh Paikra, 27, was the Bijapur correspondent with Hindsatta, a daily published from Jagdalpur. His regular reporting on Naxalites (local name for the banned Communist Party of India - Maoist) in Dantewada district raised the suspicions of the police.
In April 2005, D L Manhar, the Superintendent of Police (SP) had summoned Paikra and demanded that Paikra reveal his sources. But the journalist, adhering to journalistic ethics, refused to do so.  Revealing his sources would also have put Paikra at risk of reprisals from the Maoists. Following his refusal to disclose his sources, the SP warned Paikra of "dire consequences".
In September 2005, around 50 houses were burnt in Mankeli village, 15km from Bijapur by gangs purporting to be 'Salwa Judum'. 'Salwa Judum', or 'Peace March' which began around June 2005 as a people's revolt against excesses by the Maoists, has now been hijacked by the State who is raising and supporting an armed militia against the Maoists. Under the guise of flushing out Maoists, this armed militia (appropriately called "Special Police Officers" in official parlance) is reportedly behind a spate of violence and harassment against ordinary citizens, causing displacement on a large scale. The displaced persons are now living in camps under extremely harsh conditions.
Kamlesh Paikra's report on the burning of the houses published in the September 8 issue of Hindsatt generated wide concern, and resulted in a visit to Mankeli by a team of CPI (Communist Party of India). When news of the atrocities in Mankeli began to filter out, Paikra's life was made miserable. The permit for his fair price shop, which Paikra ran to supplement his meagre income as a journalist, was cancelled. Despite several applications, it has not been renewed, thus causing immense financial hardship to the family.
His harassment by the administration and 'Salwa Judum' took a serious turn when even his movements were physically restricted, and 'Salwa Judum' personnel prevented him from travelling outside Bijapur, especially to camps of displaced persons, and also prevented him from accompanying a human rights team that visited the area between November 26-29.
Following the human rights team's press release, the administration was further irked and a false case was lodged against Paikra's elder brother Tarkeshwar Singh, a headmaster of a village school, who was arrested on 1 December on grounds of possessing Naxalite literature and uniforms.  Singh was released on bail after two weeks, but the case is still pending.
Kamlesh Paikra was forced to move along with his wife and parents to Dantewada town in the third week of December. He has received reliable information that the police is planning to eliminate him in an "encounter", and is therefore unable to return to Bijapur. He does not have a job and is paying the price for honest reporting.
The 'Chattisgarh Shramjivi Patrakar Sangh' (Chattisgarh Working Journalists Union), has petitioned the Chattisgarh Chief Minister Dr Raman Singh and the Chattisgarh Governor Lt Gen KM Seth to provide security to enable Paikra to return to Bijapur. There has been no response to this petition, and his life continues to be at risk.
"The harassment must immediately stop and Kamlesh Paikra must be allowed to live and work in his home town," said IFJ President Christopher Warren.
The IFJ urges the authorities to respect journalists' rights and the rule of law. 
Media Release: India January 16, 2006
The IFJ has urged all interested to send letters of protest to:
Dr Raman Singh, Chief Minister, Chattisgarh
Via email: cmcg@nic.in