Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Niraj Aryal

Where is the international community? Have they split over the Nepali situation? At least what is visible is a clear division, if not a vertical one, among the concerned international community in cracking the jumbled political mess in Nepal. They are obviously exhausted, as nothing seems to work for them. This has further complicated the situation. As a result analysts and thinkers remain clueless to predict the future course the country is all prepared to take.

After an active maneuvering period in the Nepali Politics, the US ambassador James F. Moriarty seems exhausted, perhaps prefers a short hibernation to freshen/sharpen his mind. He obviously tried his best but finally failed to bring the legitimate forces in the Nepali politics together. Whereas, it is Moriarty maneuvering that prevented Deuba in leaving for Delhi, who instead opted for visiting the United States by breaking the long tradition of a Delhi visit whenever a solution to a political problem is sought in Nepal.

Then the visit of the highly placed Chinese dignitary followed, who quite intendedly and extendedly supported the current regime. This was in line with the Chinese Governments traditional posture of all weather support, which the government in Nepal was eagerly awaiting for, this time a much needed and timely boost for the unpopular government elsewhere. But as advertised there was no so-called diplomatic victory for the government in garnering Chinese support, as this is a support by default.

The government may have a lot to amplify this his visit but the only thing important is his suggestion for the need of proximity among the legitimate political forces in Nepal. Here what seems more important to mention is that Ambassador Moriarty's hibernation has not directly gone into the dogs though? By default we can say that during this period it was the Chinese dignitary who took over his job and ventilated the same idea to solve the current mess. At least what is clear until now is that in the solution to the Nepal crisis the Americans and Chinese share the similar perspective . But there is a problem. And the problem is to find the sphere of Chinese and American influence in the Nepali politics. Both apparently need some space with a say in Nepali affairs.

A fact perhaps known to the international community but avoided intentionally is that Nepal is not just geographically India locked but also geopolitically locked.

Political scientists believe that there was just the Indian influence in the post-Rana period of Nepali politics but in the modern day politics international community has its share and the sphere is growing bigger but not that big to completely change the course of Nepali Politics to date. This is another problem.

Adding to this until there are the majority of conservatives in the Indian power circles who believe that Nepal should remain under Indian jurisdiction, the US and China or any other form of external (India excluded) power would always find it difficult to see their move being put into practice. For example, their idea that the legitimate forces should unite is slowly being wiped out. It is so because "big-brother" prefers to be so.

But India is also in a big problem in Nepal. And the problem is that the frequent visits by foreign dignitaries from China, the US, the UK and other international influential countries are helping Nepal to open up. Actually, this is where India is badly loosing. Thanks that some one from Pakistan has so far not landed in Kathmandu or else Indian nervousness would have doubled.

“At present India is finding its traditional grip over the Nepali politics slipping, but still pose a very powerful sway”, said a political observer while talking to this scribe. Basically India wants Nepal to continue to remain under its direct influence and avoid international interaction without its consent; this is perhaps the only powerful snag to the Nepali problem, he added.