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The fear factor
Niraj Aryal
By now it is clear to all that the successful SPA agitation was tactfully and very strategically intruded and enlarged by the Maoists, and the continuing political pressure from the rebels and the like minded thereafter has resulted in successfully endorsing the formation of a Constituent Assembly that would decide the future fate of the traditional power centers in the country.
The pressure tactic on behalf of the Maoists is clearly showing positive results and at the end may provide a safe exit to the rebels thereby joining the political mainstream followed by an absolute democratic exercise which may give way to stability for ultimate economic growth, which would also rectify traditional loopholes in the society.
These lines above clearly indicate a perception that is purely optimistic. But are we too optimistic?
The question then follows is perhaps what political gains the rebels would achieve by joining a democratic exercise in the long run. Considering that their revolution is totally based on principles that are not so democratic and their cadres who in totality seem to believe this philosophy, the current Maoist overture presents some what skeptical picture.
If the Maoists are to be believed then another question that follows which needs equal importance is, how would the Maoist leaders' convince their cadres and avoid a grand-fracture in the party which may prevent births of similar insurgencies in the future that would bring yet another collapse to the nation state? Bearing in mind the recent feud in the rebel camp, these arguments cannot be easily negated.
Whereas if the Maoist are to evacuate their camps, they can learn lessons from their ideologically close partner, the UML(United Marxist Leninist), which by accepting democratic procedures has been able to hold significant political stature locally and much needed international recognition as well. Here the presumption is that the Maoists in the future would also prefer to adopt a much softer values a' la UML by forbidding their traditional extreme dogmatic faiths. However, what they have been thinking they reject it to be what others call as dogmatic.
Anyway, now the Maoist armed rebellion has come to a point of strength from where their demands would be heard from all political quarters, and adding to this the politics in totality would move in the direction as dictated by the rebels as is being understood and felt in these formative days even.
To the liking of the Maoist leaders, as of now the politics is heading in the same direction, where the democratic leaders, non-participating local democrats and the international community have conceived a perception, which presumes that in the near future the rebels would join the main stream by agreeing to lay down their weapons.
The question then comes into mind is whether the acceptance to the demands of the armed Maoists have come out of fear or purely a trust among the not so distant enemies would be there to see for the onlookers in the days to come. Politics more often than not forces one to be even compatible with strange bed partners!
In conclusion the future politics is sure to move the Maoists way, thus giving added political responsibility to the rebels. The country further needs more careful and flexible steps from the Maoist high-ranking leaders to continuously garner support from the Political Parties and in parallel convince their low ranking leaders plus the cadres in the front to accept whatever comes to their basket.
However, if the rebels fail to address now missing and grossly ignored national issues, which they themselves had pronounced in the initial days, could erode their would-be popular political recognition. I presume they will act as stated in their initial 40 point demands point wise.
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