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Wednesday, November 8, 2006
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INDEPTH ANALYSIS:
King Gyanendra's fate in a limbo
Kathmandu : Undoubtedly, the fate of the institution of monarchy has occupied center stage in the current politics of the country. Thus what could be said fairly that King Gyanendra's fate is in a limbo.
How the political parties housed in different camps push his issue at time of the constituent assembly polls will at best determine his continuation or removal from the country's political scene.
But then yet certain inner political overtures that have come to the notice of the analysts here does speak that those political parties who have been clamoring outwardly, perhaps for public consumption, that the institution of the monarchy must be removed and that Nepal as a nation-state can sustain the country even without the presence of the King in the country, were not at all in the mood or even in a position to eliminate the said institution at a go.
For example, the Nepali Congress or for that matter the UML have its own set agenda, though still in a clandestine phase, in order to retain the institution albeit in the form of a ceremonial monarchy.
To begin with the congress first, this party has internally decided that the continuation or the otherwise of the monarchical institution will be decided by the first meeting of the parliamentarians who come out with flying colors upon the conclusion of the CA polls.
Here lay the chances for the congress in order to save the Kingship in the country.
The presumption of the congress has been that; let's assume for the sake of convenience for the moment, the CA polls will provide sufficient number of seats to the party and hence the first meeting proposed to be held to decide the fate of the King will automatically favor the continuation of the monarchy in the country.
The presumption of the Congress has been that much ahead of the CA polls, the two divided congress will unite which will definitely mean much to them all. It is with this assumption that the congress has pushed its idea that the fate of the monarchy should be decided by the first meet of the personalities coming out victorious after the polls. The Congress imagination is based on truth for if the two congresses unite; they are uniting come what may sooner than later, which would surely get doubled with no matching parties in the polls.
So this is the inner idea of the congress that will come into action the moment they dominate numerically the strength of the would-be supreme body formed after the CA polls.
It is therefore that the congress president Koirala is hell bent on reunifying the two congresses. As of Deuba, the president of the other splinter of the congress, too in his inner hearts possess immense love for the institution of the monarchy and thus it is unimaginable that Deuba, though many a times insulted by the institution, would out rightly reject the continuation of the monarchy as demanded by the Maoists and a meager section of the Nepali academia and civil society members.
Add to this, Deuba's familial relations with the Nepali Royalties too would come into action thereby pressing Deuba and his party men to vote in favor of the monarchy. Blood relation should be thicker than water, though it is from the side of his better-half.
Now let's come to the UML point of view.
Outwardly though the UML has acquired a more tough posture against the King, which is almost at par with those of the Maoists but the party's insistence on having a referendum in order to decide the fate of the monarchy is loaded with political connotations. But matured analysts appear reluctant to grasp the view that the UML has pushed the idea of having vox populi prior to the CA polls to do away with the King's institution. It is just the other way round.
The logic forwarded by the analysts has been that the UML in effect wants the retention of the institution by pushing the idea of the country being thrown to the referendum for the party thinks or even concludes that the "silent and the elderly voters" definitely would like to retain the monarchy which could be sizeable in number and hence the "votes" received by the monarchy at time of the referendum can in no way be minimized as per the theory of political science which says that in a democracy even the votes secured by the minority must be held in respect and honor. Certainly, there are UML communists who favor the institution for a variety of "strategic" political reasons.
Add to this the votes from the fundamentalists from the Hindu cult who would in no way prefer to eliminate the institution to which this cult keeps at par with Lord Vishnu. The Indian BJP (a Hindu organization) which is in favor of the continuation of the Kingship in Nepal will also come into action because its entire top leadership worships the Nepali King as a living God.
Thus the UML would in an implied and invisible manner save the institution though the trick to save the institution would be different than others.
Thirdly and most importantly what has been ignored or is being deliberately sidelined by some interested quarters that last year when King Gyanendra met with the Indian Prime Minister Dr. Man Mohan Singh, the former has told point blank to the Indian dignitary that if the parties so decide he can easily accommodate himself as a ceremonial monarch. Dr. Singh gladly accepted this proposal. This is not all, analysts presume that on King Gyanendra's personal request, Dr. Singh is supposed to have assured the Nepali monarch that he would convince the Maoists of his proposition through his own channels.
If this is true, and this is very close to truth that even Prachanda and his party men were convinced by Delhi and assured Dr. Singh that they would go the way Delhi desired.
The Delhi desire is undoubtedly not against the elimination of the institution.
Prachanda by this time must have known Delhi 's different faces at different intervals of time.
New Delhi ! You are a great planner indeed.
STRIP NEWS:
No democracy but US-India cracy in Nepal
-Professor Johan Galtung,
Kathmandu: Professor Johan Galtung, an distinguished political scientist who is considered to be an acclaimed expert on conflict analysis opines that if the peace process that is currently undergoing in Nepal is not handled in a rational and fitting manner might give birth to yet another uprising comprising of those who would feel that they were cheated by the agreement inked in between the Maoists and the government.
" You are not at all moving in the right direction and that you are committing the same mistakes as you saw them in Israel-Palestinian affair".
He further predicts that if some thing went wrong while signing the peace accord in between the government and the Maoists, "you will have violence erupting quite similar to Sri Lanka ".
Talking on the current political overture of the SPA and the Maoists, the expert on conflict analysis says that "they have not done the work they are supposed to do. I say there is a new group which will say that they have been betrayed and the likelihood is that the group will increase over time".
A close analysis of what he says makes it abundantly clear is that this Professor envisages that even the much publicized would be agreement in between the two conflicting parties will not do away with conflict from the country's political scene as expected but instead chances of a small segment of a new but unsatisfied group would repeat the same what the Maoists have had done in the past decade.
Professor Galtung appears not that much happy with Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala's dealings with the current state of politics. Look what he says of Nepal 's prime minister: "Your Prime Minister is not accountable to parliament and the government. He is answerable to Delhi and the United States . It is very unfortunate".
This means that Galtung is saddened by Koirala's "inclination" towards New Delhi and the United States .
He sees this phenomenon as very "unfortunate".
Similarly, Professor Galtung sees Indian political overtures in this country as overwhelming and in his own way predicts Indian behavior, which in his own words, " If I predict Indian behavior, India does not like anything to happen that will put it in a bad light".
In the same vein, he laments at the weakened American politics comparatively what the Indians have now in Katmandu . He stands astounded when he learns that what transpires in between Prime Minister and Prachanda are being reported first to the US and India. He thus gets tempted to call this as a very strange system which he dubs as US-India cracy.
The learned professor is correct because he has spoken the very inner minds of the Nepali people.
Galtung in an oblique manner prefers to see the US line of thinking prevailing in the given context here; however, he again in an indirect manner says that it is New Delhi that is shadowing the US influence in Nepali politics.
Perhaps it is this that Galtung says that when he met the American Ambassador James F. Moriarty the other day, the latter was unhappy for a variety of reasons.
Though surprising it might appear, Professor Galtung appears to possess soft corner for the institution of the monarchy.
"I understand, there is a lot of love for the monarchy and not necessarily the concrete monarchy".
While this explains in an oblique manner that Galtung would wish the continuation of the monarchical system in this country but then concurrently he would prefer the institution to remain much similar to what the English people and the Scandinavian countries have.
This also means that Galtung would not vote for an active monarchy in this country.
BOX NEWS:
Nepal 's Tharu community demand
"Tharuhat " autonomous region
Kathmandu : The otherwise a tip to toe peaceful society of the THARUS appear in a disposition to express their anguish at the behavior meted out to them by the establishment of late.
The Nepalese Tharu community last week arranged a press conference in Kathmandu in order to express their grievances and its redress much ahead of the Constituent Assembly polls.
In this context, the entire Tharus residing in the entire Terai belt of this country are to have their 19 th general convention in Kathmandu wherein they will demand from the State to what is their due.
According to the Chairman of the Tharu Welfare Committee, Narendra Kumar Choudhary, the Tharus of Nepal have been deprived of their rights and that the Tharus of the country now in no way come to a compromise with the State until their due rights were guaranteed by the establishment.
Mr. Choudhary refuted the claims made by some interested political quarters that Nepal has had a belt called the MADHESH as such.
"In effect, the claims made by some in the recent years that the Madhesis situated in the Terai belt of the country were denied their rights of citizenship certificates by the State is all bogus and misleading", opined Choudhary.
It is the ploy of some political leaders to bring in Indians in sizeable numbers and overwhelm Nepal with their citizens and that's why they claim that some forty lakhs of Madhesis were denied citizenship rights.
"When the notion of Madhes does not exist in the land then how come the Madhesis exist in this country? Choudhary questioned.
According to him, there is no Madhesh in Nepal . He however conceded that what some call as Madhesh is in effect the Terai plains.
Bhulai Choudhary from the Raipur village in Saptarai district point blank revealed that after the NSP stressed the need to provide citizenship certificates to the Madhesis much ahead of the country going to the CA polls, he has seen the overwhelming presence of the Indians in his village who have come, adds, Bhulai Choudhary, presumably to get the citizen certificates.
Estimates reveal that the Tharu population in the country stands to the tune of 40 lakhs with scattered population residing in some twenty four districts in Nepal .
"We demand that the State initiates a census that brings the population of the Tharus into light and as per the statistics we too demand autonomy what others have been demanding of late", said Choudhary-the chairman of the TWC.
The Tharu community who participated at the press meet also claimed that Lord Gautam Buddha was the offspring of Tharus. Some even claimed that Emperor Ashoka belonged to Tharu clan. To provide weight to their claims, some Tharus attending the press conference cited the books penned by Dr. Taranath and Rahul Sankrityayan wherein it has been written straight that Buddha and Ashoka were Tharus.
"By rejecting the rightful claims of the indigenous Tharus bids were afoot to convert Nepal into Sikkim ", lamented Narendra Choudhary.
"We demand an autonomous region inhabited by the Tharus which should be rightfully called a THARU_HAT", said Bhulai Choudhary.
He appealed all the pressmen to make the impending Tharu convention a success.
MISCELLANEOUS:
SINGLE COLUMN NEWS:
Prachanda to eulogize democratic system in Delhi
Kathmandu : Prachanda is to visit Delhi to attend a conference, said news reports last week.
Prachanda will not attend to the scheduled Delhi meet, said quarters close to the Maoists last weekend.
And finally, Prachanda will attend a conference sponsored by an Indian Daily in Delhi some time soon.
Amidst these conflicting news that appeared in the Nepali press last week, finally the Maoists supremo is to attend the Delhi conference.
Interestingly, the news that Prachanda is to attend this Delhi meet came to light well after the Maoists supremo conversed in private with the Indian Ambassador last Tuesday evening.
What transpired in between the two at the close premise of the Indian embassy here is yet to come to the open, however, Prachanda's sneaking into mini-New Delhi South Block located in Kathmandu with his second-man does speak so many things and forces one to conclude that Prachanda is also no more no less close to Delhi than what has been described of his colleague-Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai.
Reports have it that Prachanda went to see the Indian envoy to seek his support in the release of some of his colleagues who were languishing in the Indian jails.
Others say that Prachanda had gone there to search for Indian mediation to untie the knot on how to manage the arms and the armies of the Maoists combatants.
Sources apparently close to Indian embassy say that finally Indian Ambassador's "formulae" worked which have had to be gulped even by the Americans and the Europeans.
According to this formula, the arms possessed by the People's army would be separated and kept in different locations. The Maoists military and their arms would be kept in different cantonments and would be locked whose key would be with the Maoists' designated commanders.
However, a sensor will come into action as and when some would try to open the lock.
The Indian thinking has been that by allowing the key to the lock to the Maoists would keep them in good stead and save from humiliation.
However, security experts say that it is only in Nepal that the rebels have been allowed to possess the key.
By and by, Prachanda's going to Delhi for the proposed meet of the high flying personalities from the region and beyond is also loaded with meaning.
Some say that it is the Indian ploy to force rebel leader to talk on the lines of Democracy which so far Prachanda has denied.
If that is so, Prachanda can't escape to eulogize the beauties of a democratic system. If he does so would automatically mean that he was demeaning his own ideologies for which he have had to wage a relentless struggle with the State.
If that does happen and it would happen for sure, how his die-hard Marxist-Leninist-Maoist-Prachanda-ism react to his New Delhi praise for democracy will have to be watched.
By and large, analysts at this paper appear reluctant in consoling their hearts that Prachanda will, when in power, face Indian authorities on matters related with the preservation of Nepal genuine national interests.
To recall, his friend, Dev Gurung, only last week said point blank that his party favored the theory of "eqidistance" in the conduct of Nepal 's bilateral relations with India and China .
Prachanda and his party are yet to prove the raison d' etre of his secretly entering into the premises of Indian embassy last Tuesday.
Maoists cadres create panic in Kathmandu
Kathmandu : Fresh reports received by this paper prior to going for print suggest that Maoists cadres have been creating a sort of panic among the residents of Kathmandu districts and the population living in the vicinity.
The locales residing in and around the ring road areas are being forcibly told by the Maoists cadres to provide them with shelter and extend all the amenities that they need for some days until their November 10 gathering comes to an end.
Such forcible acts of the Maoists cadres have not been taken in good tastes either by the aggrieved parties or by the diplomatic community based in Kathmandu .
"Such actions initiated by the Maoists could well be termed as the gross abuse and violation of the basic human rights of the people of Kathmandu who possess the right to live in peace without any intimidation or whatsoever", commented an international observer based in Kathmandu .
This observer on condition of anonymity further commented that if this is so now then what the hell the Maoists would do with the people when they come to power?
Our own diplomatic source says that the news of the panic thus created by the Maoists cadres in Kathmandu have well been taken seriously by various foreign missions based in Kathmandu who presumably have already told the government in no uncertain terms that such actions by the Maoists could not be taken for granted.
ENBREF:
India has no role in organizing the leadership summit
Kathmandu: 'We have conveyed to the government of Nepal that the government of India has no role in the organising the leadership summit to be held on Nov 17-18 in India. The CPN-Maoists leader Prachanda, is also invited in the summit among other world leaders.
India holds key to talks: Matrika Yadav
Kathmandu: The key of the talks is in the hands of the Indian Prime Minister and holds much clout in the Terai region of the landlocked country, Matrika Yadav, the leader of the Madhesi National Liberation Front (MNLF).
Addressing a meet in Bhairahawa the Maoist leader said that the Indian government has exerted 'undue' pressure on Nepalese Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala that has resulted "in the delay of the fruitful talks".
India to redraft extradition treaty with Nepal: Indian Minister
Kathmandu: Indian media reports quoting Union Minister of State for Home affairs that the Indian government is to re-draft its extradition treaty with Nepal. The Union Minister said that the Pakistani terrorists are using Nepal as a hideout and base for sneaking into India. Pakistani terrorists have "found a safe hideout in Nepal and it is a safe passage for coming to India", he said.
"The government would be unable to check this completely as Nepal is a friendly nation and we have porous border with it," he told reporters here. "If the need arises, we might consider a new extradition treaty with Nepal," he said. India and Nepal signed an extradition treaty in 1953.
Export power to India: World Bank
Kathmandu: "If Nepal makes delays in making decisions in constructing new hydro power projects it will be very costly for the country," Ken Ohashi, the local World Bank representative said while attending an international seminar.
Osahi said the World Bank is prepared to facilitate power transaction between Nepal and India if both the governments request us and we can also provide assistance on pricing and other technical matters through our expertise to help power dealing in a fair and neutral way.
Nepal unable to take advantage of its unique location
Kathmandu: The ADB's Director General for South Asia Mr. Kunio Senga at the end of his three-day, said “Nepal is being left behind by other South Asian countries and is unable to take advantage not only of South Asia's growth momentum but also its unique location - between India and China, the two fastest growing economies in the world.”
He also said, “Peace and stability are critical to accelerate economic growth and poverty reduction.”
All praise for Maoists in Nepal: Indian Police Chief
Kathmandu: Maoists in Nepal took up brooms and are busy with social service, their counterparts in India too should give up arms and join the mainstream," Director general of police (DGP) Swaranjit Sen said.
Indian media reports further quoted him as saying, even Russia , the communist heartland of former USSR , too changed over the years. If the Maoists are not ready to change, they too will become outdated. Naxalism has already become irrelevant."
Census of Bhutanese refugees to begin on 15 November
Kathmandu: A UNHCR press release states that the UN High Commission for Refugees and the Nepal government are to conduct a census that is to begin on will begin on 15 November in Beldangi I refugee camp and will extend over the next few months of the Bhutanese refugees living in eastern Nepal.
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