| Improving election prospects!
Though the Maoists may spoil the sport
With the scheduled date for the election to Constituent Assembly (CA) creeping closer, the country’s election confidence too seems to be improving. In the present context, the worst case scenario would be postponing the election in some five or seven central Terai districts where different dissident groups are intensifying their activities.
Meanwhile, the government has started talks with the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF), the Janajati Federation and other groups that are demanding higher say in the newly emerging political system. Hopes are high that these grievances will be solved amicably. Still, the Maoist party may spoil the sport as the party leadership has now started demanding that the monarchy should be abolished before the CA elections and that the method of election be proportional representation.
As part of the preparation for the election, the Election Commission has already granted election symbols for the political parties and the Home Ministry has finalized the security plan under which the responsibility of the security will be in the hands of the Armed Police.
Meanwhile, the report of the Rayamajhi Commission that probed the atrocities on the people during the Jana Andolan-2 of April 2006 has been made public. People against whom the Commission has recommended actions are disqualified to stand in the election for the CA. It is quite another matter that those named in the Commission’s report are not likely to be prosecuted. Ministers representing Nepali Congress have already said that actions have already been taken against those named by the Commission. Moreover, the reports quoting the Commission’s Report say it has been very lenient on recommending actions to those it has named.
One reason cited for the failure to hold the elections in June is the failure of the Nepali Congress (Prime Minister Koirala’s party) unification. Divided Congress is estimated to lose the elections miserably. Now, if the latest news quoting both of the factions is to be believed, this unification is very much closer.
The month of July began with the marking of the 100 days of Maoists in the government. The Maoist ministers declared that these 100 days were unsuccessful for them. However, non-Maoist forces think otherwise, as in those days the Maoists made a very good use of their access to the government resources for their party’s advantage and more importantly gained international recognition as political force.
Another important event of the month was the lavish parties organized by king Gyanendra to celebrate his birthday. Though the participation in the parties was limited due to strong protests on the streets by the youth wings of political parties, the king got a very good media attention. In another related development, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala formally advised Gyanendra to abdicate the throne. Presenting the Policy and Programmes of the Government at the parliament, Koirala drew an analogy from the Indian movement of independence in which the British helped by leaving India. Similar help can be provided to the people’s movement of Nepal by the king, was his message. Similar advice came from US ambassador James Moriarty while he was going back home after completing his tenure in Nepal.
However, also the sword of uncertainty hanging over the monarchy is cited as an important impediment to hold CA elections. According the analysts who believe this theory, the forces associated with the monarchy are trying to delay the elections by all possible means as the present Interim Constitution says that the fate of monarchy is to be decided by the first sitting of the CA and the palace forces fear that CA will have majority of anti-monarchists.
Still, all international powers from India and China to USA and UK are said to be in favour of holding the elections and end the present deadlock. Analysts say, these powers fear international political crisis if Nepal’s situation is left uncertain for any longer.
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