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Development Or Destruction Nepal is at the crossroads where it stares at an immense possibility for the all
round development on the one hand, and a complete destruction in case of growing tension between its two neighbors, on the other hand
By KESHAB POUDEL
During his recent visit, Chinese vice minister Wang Chao opened a box of economic and development packages reiterating China's firm commitment to offer all kinds of assistance to Nepal. Along with additional packages of financial assistance of about Rs. 460 million (RMB 50 million) to Nepal for the construction of Syaphrubesi-Rasuwagadhi Road, China also agreed to provide logistic support for the upcoming Constituent Assembly Elections.
Fiancé minister Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat requested Chinese vice minister Wang to provide US$ 200 million in soft loans to Nepal for hydropower projects and infrastructure development. "The talks for acquiring the loans are at their final stages," said finance secretary Bidhyadhar Mallik who signed a separate agreement under which China committed to extend technical support to mobile container and x-ray inspection system at the Nepali Custom offices. Chinese side also agreed to consider Nepal's demand to build dry port in Nuwakot and Panchkhal.
According to the Finance Ministry, Chao reiterated Chinese government's continued support for the implementation of various ongoing projects including scaled up technical cooperation.
After completion of Tenth Inter-governmental Economic and Trade Committee, Chinese side also agreed to provide zero duty facility to 278 items. With the restoration of democracy in 2006, China is coming with offers for economic packages for Nepal's economic development. Similarly, China has also shown its growing security concerns and stakes in Nepal.
Nepal's other southern neighbor, too, has come up with similar packages of economic and development. Although Nepal's present trouble-makers and turmoil-instigators are said to be operating by basing themselves in Indian territory, officials and politicians from that country are stressing the need for Nepal's prosperity and stability.
Less than twenty-four hours after the visit of Chinese delegation two Indian political leaders – communist leader Sitaram Yechuri of the ruling UPA alliance and opposition leader Yashwant Sinha - came to Nepal conveying the message that India will provide all
necessary support to solve the rising tension in southern Nepal.
Moreover, Indian Ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shanker Mukherjee revealed that India can extend railway up to Kathmandu. "Referring Nepal's geographical location, he said Nepal has an opportunity to serve as a transit point for air cargo. External trade is a key to Nepal's economy he said adding that elimination of non-tariff barriers and extension of transportation networks are key to trade” addressing 13th Cargo Day Organized by Nepal Freight Forwarders Association. (The Himalayan Times July 30)
As Nepal's two neighbors are coming up with economic and development packages,
this is an area where Nepal can reap a lot of advantages. With the all weather road network of more than 40,000 kilometer inside Tibetan Autonomous Region and the railway to Lhasa and its extension up to Xigatse will further give ample opportunity to Nepal for the diversification of its trade. For long, Nepal's trade and business had completely relied on Southern road network but now new opportunities are coming in the north. The opening of Rasuwagadhi-Syaphrubesi road will add another milestone.
" China has come out with a new phase of its development as well as international role in Nepal. Security, however, has been its higher priority but has always been assuring its neighbors as well as powers which count more that its priority is to promote and enter into a new interdependent economic development. For that Chinese have reasonably demarcated their point of agreement and point of disagreement with the previous adversaries. In Nepal, Chinese have priority for regional interdependence and economic relationship through trade and transport networks," said the analyst.
On the other hand, India seems to be in more confusion regarding its Nepal's policy. Even India's former foreign minister and leader of opposition in Rajya Sabha, Jaswant Singh, is a critic to India's current policy towards Nepal. "The present non-Government in New Delhi has a non-policy on Nepal," writes Jaswant Singh in Pioneer. “Now, under Mr. Manmohan Singh, India has abdicated its role and totally withdrawn from Nepal. Naturally, external forces have moved in. Henceforth, we will probably see more activism by not only the US, but also China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. What the present Prime Minister of India does not realize is that there cannot be a vacuum in international affairs. If India does not act, then others will move in."
As Nepal's two neighbors are yet to settle their border disputes, they continue to watch carefully each other's move which will generate prolonged political conflict in Nepal. Similarly, the high economic growth and growing economic interactions between India and China also give a great advantage to Nepal but their competition in security may have negative consequences.
Another Indian scholar S.D. Muni, however, sees India's policy is moving in right directions. "Being vulnerable to Nepal's turbulence, India cannot afford to let Nepal degenerate into anarchy. A stable and peaceful Nepal is vital to India's own interests. Therefore, India is deeply engaged with the peace process to ensure that the Maoists get mainstreamed into a peaceful and democratic order and Nepal is put on a firm road of political stability and orderly development," said Muni, professor of Jawaharlal Lal Nehru University.
Terai Unrest: Neighbor's Concern
Although India supported to bring Maoists into political mainstream, the growing violent activities in southern Nepal adjoining India are causing major troubles to Nepal pushing Nepal into further chaotic situation.
Indian communist leader Sitaram Yechuri last week said that India is ready to support Nepal to bring all the rebels of terai in the national mainstream. “Indian government
would extend full support and cooperation in conducting the CA poll of November 22. All the forces in the Terai who have been unleashing violence, must join the political mainstream and seek active participation in the November elections," said Yechuri.
Former Indian foreign secretary Shyam Sharan pledged that India would sternly act against violent activities in Terai. According to July 16-22, Newsfront magazine, prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala has lodged a complaint about Indian territory being used by some of the Nepali 'terrorist' groups. These statements have not brought any changes in the level of violence in Terai, though.
Chinese scholars and officials have shown similar concern on Nepal 's growing violence. "As Nepal is heading to hold the elections for Constituent Assembly, there will be peace after that, sooner the stability and normalcy return, better for the region and Nepal . Nepal 's instability will have long term implications in its border with Tibetan Autonomous Region of China," said Chinese scholar Professor Li Shaoxian.
So far as the current situation of Nepal is concerned, both of its neighbors have sensitivity towards each others' attitudes and actions. China is till now showing utmost restraint in its reactions over the critical situation of Nepal unlike its past statements when Chinese deputy prime minister and foreign minister Marshal Chen Yi in October 5, 1962 had said “ .in case any foreign army makes a foolhardy attempt to attack Nepal. China will side with the Nepalese people."
After a long silence China has reiterated its earlier stand about Nepal in the words of present Chinese ambassador Zheng Xianglin," when Nepali people face difficulties and pain, we will take that as ours; especially when Nepali people face some difficulties to uphold sovereignty and territory integrity. Any foreign, intervention in Nepal will not be tolerable for China ."
Regional Conflict
Not only Nepal the whole region is at the crossroads. What is going on at present as a political crisis in Nepal is a miniature of the crisis going on in the whole region.
" Nepal definitely has a critical position in the regional politics and its politicians have definitely a role to play to promote and preserve the vital interests of Nepal . However, capable and farsighted they might be, they have a limit to deal the surmounting situation," said the analyst.
"Yes, the quality of Nepalese politicians is much inferior than what Nepal had in the early 1960s when B.P. Koirala and his senior cabinet colleagues like Subarna Sumsher and Surya Prasad Upadhyaya- persons of high intellectual caliber and responsibility were there inside Nepal as well as outside also. Things are yet to be scrutinized with adequate detachment regarding the interplay of regional forces which reflected not only in abrupt
dismantling of the parliamentary politics in 1961 but in an enlarged confrontation between the two big regional powers in 1962 across the frozen land of high altitudes of Himalayas. Its side effects are yet continuing to disrupt many of the most valuable opportunities this region could have reaped the benefits from to get rid of vicious circle of poverty and primitiveness," said the analyst.
Both countries at present have reached to a certain stage and can be partners in progress of this region.
"For the security of both the emerging powers of the region, strategic importance of Nepal has tremendously increased, in the present circumstances, compared to any time in the past. It is due to this strategic factor, a position of equidistance is not a matter of choice but has been forced upon Nepal which guarantees her survival. Instead of graceful deal, it has been a compulsion of geo-politics on both its side which has ensured Nepal's survival as a nation yet," writes eminent constitutional lawyer and political analyst Ganesh Raj Sharma in his recent article Nepal in a Zone of Conflict (See spotlight 20-26)
"The phenomenal growth of China's national power in the period after 1978, plus Indian apprehensions about that growth, suggests that genuine Sino-Indian rapprochement may come later rather than sooner. If the conflict between Indian and Chinese aspirations and interests is as deeply rooted as it seems, it may well increase further before eventually undergoing a qualitative transformation into a cooperative relationship. The growth of
Chinese capabilities may lead to the further expansion of ties between China and India's neighbors. India may feel increasingly vulnerable and seek ways of countering China's advances. China no doubt would take a negative view of these Indian counter measures. Unless India is willing to become a junior partner of China in the emerging world order, Asia and the world may well see further Sino-Indian rivalry in the first part of twenty-first century," writes American scholar John W. Garver in his book Protracted Contest
Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century.
India's strategic analysts, too, see complications in future. "Nepal occupies an important place in India's political and strategic consideration. It provides an easy access to the Indo Gangetic plain. Ever since the elimination of Tibet as the outer buffer India has regarded Nepal and Bhutan as its inner strategic buffers. India's security would be gravely imperiled if it were to lose the two inner buffers. Chinese efforts to make strategic inroads into those buffers thus challenge Indian security," writes India's renowned strategic analyst Brahma Chellaney in his recent book Asian Juggernaut, the Rise of China, India and Japan. “All in all, by beefing up Chinese logistic support in Tibet, the rail road arms China with multiple strategic benefits vis-à-vis India - enhanced power-projection force capability; the option to step up direct military pressure; superior
transport links with states that are part of the Indian security system (Nepal and Bhutan); a greater potential to meddle in India's restive northeast."
Sandwiched between two big neighbors, Nepal has many complications. "Nepal has a very limited choice because of its size and capabilities but its neighbors are too big and too much capable to make this region heaven or hell. Nepal has, on her own, unnecessary killings and disturbances under a fake political cover for more than a decade which has now become irrelevant," said the analyst. "Though it was merely a cover but in this changed situation it has become a beneficiary of the past as a legendary champion of its martyrdom of the past. Though its base of operation in the past was democratic country, it was neither useful to that country and now nor for a democratic process of this country. It is liability for that country and this country's democratic process," said the analyst.
As American scholar Leo E. Rose said, the current potentialities of external domination and subversion are not very different in kind- though they may be in degree - from those with which Nepali governments have had to contend for at least two centuries.
As Nepal's two neighbors came with economic packages indicating that something is in the process of change. However, prolonging instability and violence in southern Nepal bordering with India shows that there is a long way to go before the regional powers come to terms benefiting Nepal.
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