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As Nepal enters into a new political phase, a new alignment is in the making
By KESHAB POUDEL
CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda announced that there is a need to declare Nepal as republic before the elections for Constituent Assembly and demanded completely proportional representation-based election system in coming elections.
When CPN-Maoist signed peace agreement and interim constitution, the party leaders agreed to decide the fate of monarchy through the elected CA and gave their stamp of approval on the mixed pattern for the elections for CA. What prompted them to change their mind?
CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal sees the new demands of Maoist as a betrayal that could foil the elections for constituent assembly. “The Maoists do not have faith in the people and they are misleading the people,” said Nepal. Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel, too, objected the Maoist move saying it is irresponsible.
In the meantime, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, a regional based party, has suddenly forwarded its demand for the dissolution of interim legislature and formation of an interim government with broader participation of all dissenting groups.
If these political events are any indication, it shows that a process of political realignment is in the making. Although 85-years-old prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala wanted to see eight party alliance continue for another eight more years, it seems that the new alignment is inevitable to emerge in this context when external power is much concerned about the implications of present alliance..
In a country where diehard Gandhian leader Matrika Prasad Koirala led the violent movement to overthrow Rana regime and his brother G.P. Koirala is leading alliance of extreme communists – which do not have any faith in liberal democratic norms - every kind of alignment is possible. So, one cannot deny the possibility of MJF becoming a member of new alliance.
For prime minister Koirala and CPN-UML general secretary Nepal, they would not have any hitch to join alliance with MJF as they have already shared power with CPN-Maoist – which had killed hundreds of their grass root workers.
“Till Maoist upsurge all major instabilities occurred on the cover of political ideology, even though it had no root and acceptability in the masses. Now new kind of cover is being used which is anti-dote and, therefore, deterred to ideological appeal,” said a political analyst. Now an upsurge has been initiated under the cover of regional and the ethnic issues to fragmentation of Nepal into several pieces. However, the same kinds of people are being used under different appearances and alliances.
Whatever the nature of alliance, everything can be workable in Nepal. The question is now for whom the political realignment is required and for what interest these alliances serve. Even for King Gyanendra, who dismissed elected prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba terming him –“inefficient” – Deuba later became efficient whom he re-appointed as prime minister.
“It is normal phenomenon for the foreign policy of any society to be strongly affected by domestic political and economic factors, and this is certainly the case in Nepal. But the reverse principle- namely that international factors have strong and often decisive impact on Kathmandu domestic politics – is even more apparent. This is a painful fact of life of many Nepalis and that some of the world prefers to ignore,” writes Leo. E. Rose and John T. Scholz in the book Nepal: A Profile of a Himalayan Kingdom.
What Leo E. Rose had depicted as the peculiarity of Nepalese politics can clearly be perceived even at the present situation. “People usually are perplexed to see unnatural alliances being formed by politicians who themselves don’t have much idea about the emerging trends in politics. That helplessness has remedies elsewhere. It is, therefore, whenever that kind of things have to be resolved either, they go to Delhi to resolve their differences or emissaries from there come to Nepal to meddle in its internal rifts. Sometime back leading persons of the parties had reached Delhi for their ‘medical checkup’ and came back with political rejuvenation,” said the political analyst.
Similarly, a few days back some leading personalities of ruling United People Alliance and opposition party from India like Sitaram Yachuri and Yeshwant Sinha came to Nepal and had hectic meetings with heterogeneous political groups of Nepal who don’t trust each other but remained subversive to Indian pontification.
“As a landlocked country with giant neighbors, Nepal cannot shield itself from outside influences. Its rulers, and the factions competing have always been ready to look beyond Nepal’s border for support. India’s Mantra of non-intervention has not entirely concealed significant behind- the - scenes- maneuvering not just facilitating the accord between the Maoists and the political parties but in almost every subsequent step,” writes Rhoderick Chalmers in his article Toward New Nepal published in Current Affairs.
It is always regional powers that make and break internal political alliance as political leaders and ministers have very little to say. “In Nepali politics, China and India count much than any country, even uni-polar player USA. A vocal and overactive former US ambassador to Nepal James F. Moriarty saw decline of democracy during the King’s active rule and was helpless spectator when Maoists were one of the major force to reach to absolute power without any effective checks and balances,” said the analyst.
Nepal is in a serious crisis of turning point in its history. Nepal is going through a very painful process of realignment which has been covered by series of actions and reactions of a mysterious nature including the sudden shift of tone by Maoist leaders. The Maoist party’s ideological closeness towards north seems to have provoked south to form another alignment of non-ideological nature.
“Given its track record, however, it is reasonable to assume that Kathmandu will continue to function as an independent minded, friendly nationalist polity that exploits any and all opportunities to devise policies that advance its perception of Nepal’s interest,” write professor Rose and Scholz.
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