DANGER OF GIVING AWAY RIGHTFUL INHERITANCE: NEPAL’S WATER RESOURCES
By Dr. AB Thapa
“The present institutions ( in Nepal) should be wary of giving away Nepali children’s rightful inheritance”. This is the remark of Mr. Paul D. Terrell from Bechtel International who was advisor consultant to Multipurpose Karnali Project. He had expressed his concern in an article published in the journal “HIMAL” on Karnali High Dam Project. On top of it he had also said (a) Nepal can decide NOT to build the Karnali Project, but Nepal alone cannot decide TO BUILD the project, (b) Nepal should beware of unintentional “give away” in hydro development, and not rush to compromise the optimum development for the sake of a quick deal.
Nepal Can Decide Not to Build
Mr. Terrell has said that Nepal can decide NOT to build the Project, but Nepal alone cannot decide TO BUILD the project. It implies that our strongest bargaining chip is our right NOT to build the project. It indeed is the most powerful weapon to compel the adversary in bilateral talk to accept our terms and conditions. Canada had used this bargaining chip to compel the USA to concede and accept their demand in course of finalization of the Columbia River Treaty. Thus it would be our grave mistake if we believe that we can depend on a private company to negotiate on our behalf a fair deal with our neighbouring country on water resources projects.
Lately we were brainwashed by foreign multinational companies into sacrificing the downstream benefits. We were on the verge of handing over the mammoth Karnali High Dam Project to one of the multinational companies completely abandoning our right to recover a certain percentage of the downstream benefits to accrue to India from that project. The Karnali Project will have a storage reservoir about 39 billion cubic meters in volume which is greater than the volume of reservoirs of the Columbia River Projects estimated to be about 18 billion cubic meters. Two US presidents and two Canadian prime ministers were directly involved in the talks to finalize the downstream benefit issues. Negotiations had continued for many years.
Canada Refused to Compromise on Water Issues
The Progressive Conservatives’ party Prime Minister of Canada John Diefenbaker was a nationalist. He took a firm stand on the Columbia River Treaty between the USA and Canada in defense of Canada’s national interest. The Columbia River Treaty was signed at the White House in January of 1961. Over the course of the following summer, the United States Congress held hearings in connection with the Treaty which ultimately led to its ratification. In Canada, the approval process was virtually halted. Canada realized after signing the Treaty at the White House that it did not meet the aspiration of the Canadian people. The Treaty effectively remained in limbo. Diefenbaker’s government fell in 1963 election contest with the liberals. Soon after, a new government was formed under the leadership of the Prime Minister Pearson who was regarded politically close to the USA. But he too never compromised on water resources matters in dealings with the USA.. Prime Minister Pearson agreed to step in to ratify the Treaty only after his meeting with the US President at Hyannis Port. In that meeting it was agreed that the Treaty would be implemented in a way which met the Canada’s concerns.
Nepal Should Not Rush to Compromise Optimum Development
Mr. Terrell has cautioned us that Nepal should beware of unintentional give away in hydro development, and not rush to compromise the optimum development for the sake of a quick deal. Astonishingly about 15 years after the publication of his article in the HIMAL that carried his advice to Nepalese people, our government is now in the process of embarking on a stupid plan in defiance of the opinion expressed in the World Bank financed feasibility study report to implement the 300 MW Upper Karnali Mini Project completely ruining the prospect to develop the 4,180 MW Upper Karnali Storage Project which undoubtedly is the best among all large hydropower projects identified so far in Nepal.
Nepal might be able to get easily up to 50% of the total power in royalty from the private developers if they are properly briefed about the impressive advantages of the Upper Karnali Storage Project. By comparison with the mammoth 10,800 MW Karnali Chisapani Project the firm head of the Upper Karnali Project would be almost two times greater, though the length of waterway of both these projects would be almost the same. It can be derived based on Stage A Optimization Study Data of the World Bank financed Karnali Project study report that per KW installed capacity construction cost of the Upper Karnali Storage Project could be only about 70% of such cost of the project at Chisapani. It need not be explained that the firm power generation of the Upper Karnali Storage Project operating at two times bigger head would also be two times greater from the use of same volume of regulated flow of the Karnali by comparison with the Karnali Chisapani Project.
Nepal might be justified to require that the private developer pay about 50% power in royalty. The total generation of the Upper Karnali Project could be about 10,000 GWh. Our country could get about 5,000GWh in royalty.
At present there is a big surge in demand for peaking power in India. The generation cost of such power could be about US Cents 12 per KWh. The amount in royalty from the developers could be as high as US$ 500 million per annum if it is assumed that the electricity would be sold at a price of about US Cents 10 per KWh.
Big Surge in Demand for Peaking Power
At present India is experiencing an acute shortage of peaking energy. At the beginning of the Eight Plan, the total peaking shortage was 20% whereas the energy shortage was only 9% of the total power generation. The thermal and nuclear power stations are suitable to supply electricity to meet the base load demand of the system. It is not economic to use them to supply peaking energy. Gas turbines can be used to meet the peak load demand because of low specific investment costs and quick start up. However, the efficiency is limited due to the high exhaust gas temperature of the turbine.
India is making every effort to improve the hydrothermal mix for ensuring better system operating condition. However, the share of hydropower in the overall power generating capacity has steadily declined since the last few decades. The share of the hydropower in the overall power generating capacity was 50.6% in 1963. But few years before it has come down to only 25.66%.
Few More Cautions
Mr. Paul Terrell has cautioned us against excessive optimism over the building of high dams. He has highlighted some of the problems also. He has said” The major concern in building hydro dams is tectonics. The Himals are seismically active and although this does not preclude building large dams, it certainly requires stringent design criteria, and the resulting structures may become relatively expensive”. It is now a bitter reality that our government is on the verge of granting permission to a private developer to build 190m high concrete faced rock filled dam (CFRD) across the West Seti River for the generation of power because this type of dam is cheap to build. It should be noted that it is going to be the highest dam of this type so far built in the whole world. It is very strange that the Government has not cared to check by employing competent internationally known experts whether or not the proposed dam has been properly designed.
(Dr. Thapa writes on water resources)
