Mixed Bag For Agriculture
The leaders of the world recently concluded a major summit in Bali, Indonesia expressing their renewed commitment to deal with the problem of climate change. They finally agreed, unanimously, that the global warming is, indeed, causing problems, which if not addressed immediately could jeopardize humanity's destiny. The global warming is caused by Green House Gases, which are released by industrialized nations. But its effects are more pronounced in geographically vulnerable countries like Nepal. The impact of climate change on agriculture is an issue that is very close to Nepal since it is predominantly dependant on agriculture. However, experts have said that till date, the effect of climate change on agriculture in Nepal is mixed. The rising temperature to an extent is helpful toward production of paddy and wheat. But the erratic weather pattern since in recent times, unleash untold miseries. The time has come for the Nepalese authorities to find out and employ adaptive measures to mitigate the effects
By SANJAYA DHAKAL
Gyan Lal Maharjan is a farmer hailing from Patan, Lalitpur. He has been involved in rice farming.
But in recent times, Maharjan has felt that the weather is not supportive towards agriculture.
"We plant paddy rice in our fields in the month of Asar (between mid-June and mid-July). This is the time when we need to have good monsoon rainfall. But in recent years, the rainfall has not been satisfactory in the month of Asar. The rainfall comes in Shrawan or Bhadra. That negatively affects the production of paddy," Maharjan said.
"Traditionally, we have been planting paddy in Asar since the time of our forefathers. If we are not able to do so, then definitely it will cause problems for us," said Maharjan, who has taken up the profession of part-time construction contractor as agriculture alone is not able to sustain his livelihood.
Similar is the experience of Indra Lal Bijukchhe, a potato farmer from Panauti, Kavre. "Potato is very sensitive to weather pattern. There has to be right degree of sunlight, rainfall and coldness," he said.
"We need sunlight as well as right amount of rainfall. But we cannot expect the weather to follow the normal course these days," Bijukchhe said.
"Erratic hailstorms and strange weather pattern has been causing unexpected losses to farmers," he said.
Bijukchhe's family earns a good portion of income from selling potatoes. But given the degree of uncertainty in its production, he has also opened a retail shop to supplement the household income.
Both Maharjan and Bijukchhe say they are unaware that the erratic weather pattern could be caused by what global experts have termed as climate change – a slow but gradual rise in average temperature of the planet earth due to the excessive release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
"It (climate change impact on agriculture and weather pattern) must be so if the experts and scientists are saying. We hope that something will be done quickly to correct these problems," said Maharjan.
Mixed Impact
Experts and scientists have said that the global climate change is having a mixed impact on Nepal's agriculture.
Increase in temperature by few degree Celsius will have favorable effect on production of major crops like paddy and wheat, particularly in hilly region. However, the erratic weather pattern can have highly negative impact on agriculture, which is totally dependent on natural climate, according to agro-scientists.
Given its geographical make-up – with high Himalayas and hilly region occupying a large portion of country's territory – Nepal is more vulnerable to impact of climate change than other countries of the world.
Even a small rise in temperature can accelerate the rate of snow-melting. This, in the long term, can lead to scarcity of water resources. Scientists have said that in Nepal, the temperature is rising at the average rate of 6 degree Celsius per century. This rate is much higher if only mountain regions are considered.
According to Ghanashyam Malla, a scientist at the Agriculture Environment Division at the Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC) in Khumaltar, the rise in few degrees of temperature is having positive impact on production of paddy.
"Our studies have shown that across the country and particularly in hilly region, the rise in temperature by up to five/six degree will have positive impact on production of paddy," Malla said.
However, the climate change also causes disruption in normal weather pattern inviting untimely rainfall; changing intensity and duration of monsoon; increase in warmer days and so on.
"We have seen situations like excessive rainfall or under rainfall. Problems like floods, landslides and drought have also increased. I can give you an example how when recently a team was sent by the government to find out the impact of drought in one place. When the team studied the situation and returned, the same place suffered from flood," said Bhola Man Singh Basnet, agriculture scientist and spokesperson of NARC.
"These situations are having definite impact on agriculture," he said.
Basnet said that in recent times, the monsoon pattern has also been changing with increasing intensity but decreasing duration of rainfall.
This year, however, fortunately the rainfall was said to be better. "Officials said there were 24 more days of rainfall than average this year. Perhaps because of this the paddy production has increased by 17 percent this year," he said.
Long Term Catastrophe
Even as the production of paddy and wheat might increase in the short term due to few degrees of rise in temperature, in the long term the situation looks catastrophic.
"Experts of the world have concluded that the water resources are depleting day by day. I recently read a report in Newsweek that in the next 30 years, the quantity of fresh water available to human will go down by half. This is a very bad news for a country like Nepal whose major crop is paddy, which needs tremendous amount of water," Basnet said.
According to him, to produce 1 kg of rice, farmers will need 3000 liters of water. "To produce rice in 1 hectare of land, you will need 800,000 liters of water. How can we be able to maintain the water supply if there is climate change?" he asked.
Basnet says that the government must be able to introduce adaptive technologies to deal with the situation. "Even at NARC we have developed varieties of rice seeds, some of which can be used even when there is less water available. We must adopt Integrated Crop Management technology to overcome this challenge," he said.
Rice or paddy is not only a simple agricultural product but also a major pillar of food security for Nepalese. As Basnet says, it will be foolhardy to minimize the impact of paddy on Nepal's food security by going for other crops only.
"Just this year, India banned exports of common quality rice (non-Basmati) because of decrease in production. So, we cannot remain dependent on import of items, which are factor of food security," he said.
There are five major crops of Nepal including rice, maize, wheat, finger-millet and barley. In the last thirty years, the productivity of crops have doubled with the population in the country. Since last six years, Nepal is again food-surplus country but there is huge regional disparity in production. While Terai or plain region attains huge surplus, the high hills and mountain regions are suffering from food deficit.
Because of the high speed industrialization of western countries as well as neighboring countries like India and China, there has been astronomical growth in release of Green House Gases causing climate change in the whole world. But an underdeveloped country like Nepal is facing the worse consequences of such actions due to no fault of its own. As such, experts believe that it is the duty of the developed and resourceful countries to come to the assistance of countries like Nepal to help adapt to the newer challenges.
