A Hobson’s Choice
In a recently concluded mock election for Constituent Assembly, overwhelming majority of the voters participated showing their strong commitment and determination in poll process but all of these are not alone enough to decide the fate of the elections. Other major determinant factors - whiich have decisive power - count much. At a time when other determinant factors, internal and external, are reaping all benefits in the existing interim arrangement, they seem to be in a dilemma whether to go for the unpredictable outcome of elections or to continue with the existing arrangement. Except the silent majority, all other forces have nothing to lose in continuing with the present interim order
By KESHAB POUDEL reporting from Pharping
For Sanumaiya Shrestha,70, who came early in the morning to the polling booth in Dakshinkali Village Development Committee, 10 miles south of capital Kathmandu , Saturday (July 21) was a historic day when she cast her vote in a mock election for Constituent Assembly.
"It does not make any difference to me whether this is a mock or real election but I cast my vote in the ballot box. I don't know whether I will be still alive or not for the next polls," said Sanumaiya who has experience of taking part in several elections in the past.
Although it was a mock election, like Sanumaiya overwhelming number of people of four wards of Dakshinkali VDC responded positively. Out of 1501 voters of 1, 2, 3 and 4 wards of the VDC, 588 votes were cast in just two hours of polling time.
From UN observer team to Election Commission Officials and local leaders of political parties, all are satisfied with the voting pattern. "Despite short preparation, the voters’ turn out is exciting," said Nilkantha Upreti, a Commissioner at the Election Commission (EC).
The mock election indicated that silent majority are committed and determined to hold the elections. However, the ground reality is that they are not the only determinant factor. Given the appropriate situation, they will definitely exercise their sovereign rights as in the past several elections of Panchayat and multi-party elections of local and national level.
Who Needs Elections?
There is a commitment for elections for Constituent Assembly from all sides. "Even though CA may not be able to reflect the real opinion of the people, the elections definitely have the sanctity. But in present situation, there are some forces which may like to have it held sooner and others may not like to have it held at all because of benefits being reaped during this interim period," said a political analyst.
This dilemma is natural. Elections are, in a way, a gambling with the opinion of an innumerable number of people who cast votes. It is always unpredictable in its results and consequences. Several such instances have been there in the past in Nepal as well as other countries even including the developed democracies.
The forces - which have been acquiring all the benefits in the present interim period - may naturally be inclined to get the elections postponed and reap the benefit as much as possible. This applies to all internal and external forces as well.
"Though it is a poor country, Nepal is abundantly rich in its natural resources. Since a long time there have been attempts to get benefits from these resources as much as possible, if not monopolize it altogether. Similarly, there are some parties and politicians who had not obtained seats in the elections for previous parliament and who have now become equal partners in the eight parties alliance," said the analyst.
According to the analyst, even dominant parties have such leaders in power at present who may hardly be able to get a party ticket to contest the elections having no chances to get elected by the people. "All such internal and external forces may have different interest than that of common people and their genuinely expected leaders," said the analyst.
The other determinant in politics is the mobilization of cadres of leadership and mass of workers behind their supreme leaders. As none of the political parties have a solid grass root organizations and committed mass, they all have to gamble with their fate in floating political trends. This makes them feel very vulnerable.
Reasons for Disruption
The main factors that do not want to gamble in the elections have already started to play the game to disrupt the polls. For the persons and parties in power and other external factor benefited by the present interim arrangement, disruption of law and order situation by armed group is a good excuse to prolong present interim period.
As the armed groups continue to create anarchical situation in terai, it is inevitable to have impact on the elections process. With a demand for proper security, secretaries of Village Development Committees, who are the main employees working in the grassroots level, have already declared a nation wide strike calling to shut down all 3912 Village Development Committees.
After the killing of one of their colleagues recently by armed rebel Jantantrik Terai Mukti Morcha – Jwala Singh (JTMM-J), all the village secretaries in terai have shut down their offices.
If village secretaries continue to defy the government order, it will hamper the elections related works including publication of voter lists. "There is no question to return to work as long as the government does not guarantee our security," said Bhawani Prasad Ghimire, secretary of Village Development Committees Secretary Welfare Committee. "We are not sacrificial lambs."
Moreover, following the threat of JTMM (J) to attack officials of hill origin posted in terai, there is more panic and uncertainty in the region. "If we cannot settle the ongoing violence in terai by August 17, it will be impossible to hold the elections for Constituent Assembly in November," declared home minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula in Saptari.
The scenario in Terai is very much pessimistic. Even overwhelming majority of Nepali Congress parliamentary members expressed concerns over the deteriorating law and order situation of the country in their meeting on 19 July.
Among others, the UN Electoral Expert Monitoring Team (EEMT), responsible for assessing the preparations for the upcoming Constituent Assembly elections slated for November 22, said that the deteriorating security situation in the country continues to pose the most serious threat to the electoral process.
In a report submitted to the government and the Election Commission, the EEMT has also recommended that the political leaders reach an agreement on the security issue before the elections.
PM's Arrogant Tone
However, against the pessimistic outlooks of the members of Congress parliamentary committee and civil servants serving in terai, a lone voice of confidence came from prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala in a bit of arrogance tone.
"I will hold the elections at any cost," said prime minister in a language of arrogance as a person in power but not in the spirit of collective leadership. Maoist leader Prachanda, however, challenged Koirala's arrogance. "Without understanding between me and Girijababu, one cannot hold the elections," said Prachanda in his recent interview to Rajdhani daily.
"If prime minister Koirala’s pious wishes are the sole determinant of the present politics of Nepal, one can believe that the elections will definitely be held but facts do not suggest that. Prime minister Koirala who has full authority of the government - has to live with several political determinants active and alert with heterogeneous interests within and outside his cabinet, his party and country," said the political analyst.
Terai Violence Rises
Although the situation is more or less normal in hills, almost half of Nepal in terai region has been going through a serious law and order problem where more than 15 armed groups have emerged, some with a declaration of independent state adopting similar modus operandi practiced by Maoists in the past. Previously, they championed federalism as a progressive stand but now they are demanding independent state in Terai.
As populism is an unstable game, demand for federalism has been sidelined by a demand of secession. The present trend of populism showed that it has a tendency to encourage violence and political instability more than any definite solution.
"We are no more interested to talk on federal structure for terai with Pahade government. We want a separate independent state in Madhesh where Madheshi can rule their own country. Our future negotiation with Pahade's government will be held to demarcate the border," said JTMM (J) leader Jwala Singh.
In private, everyone whispers why violence is in full swing and which force is abetting, encouraging the trend but there is no appropriate answer from any political party or leader of credible standing.
Clashes of Interests
Looking at all factors combined together, one cannot be assured that all these forces have same interest and same goals in Nepal. The persons in the present government including prime minister Koirala - who is paying lip service expressing determination to hold the elections - may lose nothing if the election is not held at all for a long time to come.
“However, if election takes place, many of eight party leaders may not be there and prime minister may also not have this privilege of power, which he has been increasingly using since he reached into the present position. For political leaders, it is not election but it is the power which counts much. And therefore, they don't have any serious urge to hold the elections. The second determinant of the present politics are the leaders of eight political parties who have all the power without any responsibility of the state and to the people," said the analyst.
Because of their parties in power, all political leaders come out with headlines of one or the other kinds of threat to the government and sermons for the people with all unrealistic but attractive promises in every day news paper.
"If the election is held in time, their parties may have a substantial share in the elected house but they themselves may not be anywhere in the limelight. Most of the prominent leaders including prime minister Koirala, Congress vice president Sushil Koirala CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, CPN-UML leader Bharat Mohan Adhikari, Jhalnath Khanal, Bamdev Gautam, CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai have their mass base and constituency in troubled areas where all kinds of ethnic, regional groups have emerged with their new daring leaders who defy all the authority of the state," said the analyst
Uncertain Course
At a time when the course is very uncertain, political leaders may not want to take risk contesting elections. Even dominant parties have some leaders in power at present who may hardly be able to get party ticket to the elections. As the future may be no better than what they have at present, they too may not have intense desire to face the election soon.
Of course, the floating political trend has brought miracles many times in the past. Nani Maiya - who was semi literate but got elected by an overwhelming majority from the city of elites during the last days of Panchayat - syndrome is being repeated time and again deciding the fate of a person or party.
After Panchayat, Madan Bhandari, a completely new face in politics, was able to defeat a widely respected politician Krishna Prasad Bhattarai who was an all party consensus prime minister at that time.
"Several such incidents are there to show that opinions at the grass roots are not with an organized command. Communists parties elsewhere in the world come out from the working classes in industries or agriculture but it is the unique phenomenon in Nepal that communists first emerged through propaganda and reached towards peasant later," said the analyst.
There is the most powerful silent majority who are eagerly waiting for elections but they don't have their own initiative to lead the trend and get what they want.
The silent majority needs a congenial atmosphere to chose their representatives to serve the needs of common people. "As long as that substantially determined political power remains handicapped and without leadership of their own, elections in Nepal will be a game of convenience of the illegitimate stakeholders in the power," said the analyst.
External Factor
The last but the most decisive element in politics of Nepal is an external factor with its geographical proximity and strategic advantage. This factor is still able to manipulate the situation and gets the results as it desires.
"Till now it is the only player in the political field performing through its unseen channels. Election is not its primary need now. Since half a century, it didn't get opportunity what it has at present to deal with several pending issues related to its own national interests. Apart from security matters, it has vital stakes in the natural resources of Nepal and particularly perennial water resources of abundant potentials. What it is achieving at present under the cover of sick prime minister with all his hallows of supreme decision maker of present hotchpotch government, is unequalled," said the political analyst.
Even a senior minister representing the largest party CPN-UML Pradeep Nepal has written, "Girija Prasad Koirala holds the view that other cabinet members of coalition government should also endorse the decisions taken by him without any amendment like that of his party colleagues. (See Samaya Weekly July 5)
Among the external forces, except two dragons bordering with Nepal, others don't have those capabilities to dictate terms in Nepal. "The whole experiments under the active diplomacy of James F. Moriarty – out going US ambassador had proved that even a superpower USA has to follow the interest of one or the other of these two neighbors of Nepal,” said the analyst.
Net results under the Moriarty's diplomacy was his failure to stop King Gyanendra from taking over power in February 1, 2005 and failure to block entry of red tag bearer Maoists into power.
“Maoists were successful in both; destroying the authority of King as well as degrading the democratic party Nepali Congress into minority and dependent force upon it," said the analyst. "The USA needs to seriously review the failure of Moriarty for it own regional strategy and pragmatic treatment to Nepal. In handling Nepal, European countries proved much matured and farsighted."
"In such a situation, a question haunts everybody's mind whether the elections for Constituent Assembly will be held or not in a given time on November 22, 2007. Lord Pashupati doesn't utter and he is helpless look in his statue. Moreover, there are ruling "gods" in power who are no better than a chattering box," said the analyst.
Among others changing alliances among internal and external forces make the situation more complex. “Because of changing alliances from north to south and south to north, the possibility of holding the elections is becoming uncertain,” said the analyst.
As the election result is always unpredictable, it is Hobson's choice for all determinant actors whether to hold the elections for CA or not. Growing violence of terai may be a good excuse for all to postpone the election for indefinite period and satisfy the silent majority by holding mock elections like the recent one in Dakshinkali.
