Instability in Abundance
Dr. Tilak Rawal
At a time when our two neighbors to our north and south are struggling to check runaway growth of the economy ( China) and attain a growth of above 9 percent in a sustainable manner without running into hyper inflation ( India), we in Nepal have not been able to pay attention to the sluggish state of our economy. Despite prediction of a 5 percent growth by the interim government, it is likely to remain below 3 percent in the current fiscal year. Inflation is on a rise (8 percent on a point to point basis) and export and import have both decelerated. Budget surplus of Rs.18 billion (a result of increase in revenue, grants and decline in capital expenditure) has become a headache for the government and there is a strong urging by people that this amount be spent in the creation of physical infrastructures, wherever possible. Finance minister Mahat’s discomfort could be eased a bit if he decides to spend this money on creation and/ or improvement of infrastructure in so far ignored far western Nepal. To be specific, about 200 million could be spent in the improvement and blacktopping of about 28 km road that starts at Lamki in Kailali and passes through Tikapur, an important educational and commercial point in Seti zone, and ends at the border point in Khakrolaghat. Several other projects with relatively short completion period could be cited in so far ignored far western Nepal itself if the government is serious about not using the stockpiled money in debt servicing.
Those at the helm of affairs have admitted that economic issues have not yet received the much deserved attention because efforts are mostly directed toward resolution of mushrooming protests and conflicts even after the end of the major decade-long conflict. Signing of 12 point peace accord between the 7 parties and the Maoists, formation of an interim legislature and the government with adequate representation in both of all involved in conflict resolution, could not ensure peace and stability in Nepal basically because new fear have surfaced in the country. In fact, there are about half a dozen bodies that seem to be taking turns in calling bandhs and other protest programs in Nepal, mainly in the fertile plain area which is also a center of major economic activities. Recent formation of Young Communist League (YCL) by Maoists has also not so far contributed toward creating a peaceful environment. With the exception of some social work carried out in the city of late, YCL cadres’ reported involvement in looting, vandalism and torching of property has contributed toward tarnishing the image of CPN Maoist and its leader Parchanda. How bad this leader must have felt when he came to know that the vehicle he was using was a forcibly snatched one, anyone can guess. Looking at the activities of political parties and vacillating views of their leaders on vital issues, it seems ailing G.P. Koirala has a tough task ahead of resolving the major political issues keeping the current composition of government intact. In addition to bringing the new groups in conflict around the negotiating table, government seems to be seriously trying to satisfy the insatiable Maoist’s thirst for resources. It was interesting to see the two parties, Maoist and the government, indulged in trading accusations on the subject of adequacy or otherwise of resources made available. Despite hundreds of millions of rupees made available to them, it is disgusting to see Maoist combatants living in such deplorable conditions: saw one camp in Kailali recently. Therefore, it doesn’t really make much sense to talk about economic matters at a time when the nation is almost neck-deep in the flood of unrest and instability.
Sporadic unpleasant incidents happen even years after cessation of hostilities as is shown by experience of other war-devastated countries. In light of this reality, Nepalis were quietly trying to cope with inconvenience caused by strikes, bandhs and other unpleasant incidents emanating from activities of various disgruntled groups formed along regional, ethnic and racial lines. The nation, however, was shocked by the incident in Gaur of Rautahat a couple of weeks ago in which scores of people were killed as a result of clash between cadres of Madhesi People’s Right Forum (MPRF) and pro-Maoist Madhesi Mukti Morcha. Killings of this scale were heard in the past when the Maoists and government troops alternated in inflicting collateral damage on the other side. It is now clear that Nepal is still far from achieving normalcy and that possession and use of fire power is no more a monopoly of Maoists; cross-firing that occurred between the rival groups in Gaur and use of weapons by other groups elsewhere in the country amply demonstrate this. To avoid recurrence of this kind of incident and other violent happenings, major political leaders mainly Maoist supremo Parchanda, who is as popular as octogenarian G.P. Koirala as is shown by different surveys, will have to really work hard to tame some of his unruly cadres who take to extortion, beating and abduction of people begging to differ with them. Maoists will have to learn to respect the fundamental rights of people and instill in their cadres some norms of political values and ethic to save their party from ruination. It is disgusting to see them still confiscating property of people, instead of returning as promised by party leaders. In fact, the eight party cadres will have to learn to respect the fundamental rights of people such as fundamental rights of expression. When we have not yet enacted a law barring certain people from making political expressions, we must respect this fundamental right of people, be it the sidelined monarch or Mr. Rabindra Nath Sharma who was manhandled by eight party workers while delivering an ostensibly pro-monarch speech in eastern Terai..
Protests and counter protest rallies held in the past and currently are a clear indication that violators of fundamental rights can not always escape scot-free. Therefore, instead of trading accusations and organizing counter protest rallies, the concerned need to get into a soul searching exercise. Let no one’s property be taken away forcibly, be it of the royalties or a common villager: Maoist lawmakers by now must have given some thought to the repeated plea in the parliament by some co-parliamentarians for returning their confiscated property.
Everything has to be done legally. If available laws are not adequate or effective enough, get new laws enacted by the interim parliament which lacks sizeable number of lawmakers to challenge or obstruct what the parliamentarians of eight ruling parties intend to do. Let individuals be involved in economic pursuit of their choice in a fearless environment, depending on their ability. The created wealth can be taken away through progressive taxes giving due recognition to the tax payers. High-tax European countries such as Germany encourage individuals to create wealth in a competitive environment then take away a major chunk of it without seeming to have forcibly taken it away. Similar is the situation in prosperous Norway which has created a competitive environment to ensure most productive use and application of factor inputs and have different measures in place to take care of the basic needs of people there.
Property forcibly taken away in the past should be immediately returned and extortion, abduction and confiscation of property should now be a matter of the past if CPN Maoist has to retain its current status of a major political force because ultimately in the changed scenario it is the ballot and not bullet that is going to matter. Dramatic results can not be expected overnight but the disciplining work or educational exercise has to start immediately in each party, more so in CPN Maoist. Cementing fragile unity of ruling parties and exercising maximum restraint by the concerned can help bring an end to this unrest engulfing our nation. Pending resolution of political issues, economic issues in Nepal are bound to be on hold, however much restless we become looking at the progress of India and China.
(Dr. Rawal is a former governor of Nepal Rastra Bank)
