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VOL. 27, NO. 10, November 02, 2007 (Kartik 16 2064 B.S.)
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Early Warning
Although the tremor was moderate, it jolted the valley enough to remind of the looming danger
By A CORRESPONDENT
For Krishna Bahadur Dangol, the resident of Maitidevi, there is no alternative other than to stay at home helplessly. As his locality is full of tall buildings, he could not run away even when he was jolted by the tremor of earth quake on October 29.
"As there is no open space available, my family members decided to stay inside the room," said Dangol, 60. "It is safer inside the house than rushing out where there is nothing but narrow alleys, lanes and four and five storey houses."
For many other 3 million population of Kathmandu valley, the jolts of 5 Richter scale earth quake of Monday afternoon reminded where they can go in case of big earth quake which is said to be overdue according to experts.
According to National Seismological Center (NSC), the earthquake had its epicenter at Sharamthali in Nuwakot district, about 25 kilometer north of Kathmandu. The tremor was felt for three to four seconds in the valley.
"An earthquake of magnitude five on Richter scale is not devastating but the destruction to life and property depends on the nature of surroundings of the epicenter," said Soma Nath Sapkota. "Around 24 tremors of over four Richter scale magnitude have been recorded so far in Nepal this year."
Experts argue that an earthquake of six on Richter scale can make significant impact in the valley. According to a study of National Society for Earthquake Technology Nepal (NSET-Nepal) and Geohazards International, USA, Kathmandu valley faces a large and growing risk from earthquakes. A loss estimation study indicates that the next major earth quake to affect Kathmandu Valley could cause tens of thousands of deaths and nearly
hundred thousands injuries. Damage to the house stock, business, public buildings, and utility and transportation networks will also be devastating.
As a country with a long history of destructive earthquakes, Nepal is vulnerable to major tremors. The last major quake hit the valley in 1934 with over eight richer scale when more than 11,000 people lost their lives.
Three major earth quakes occurred in 1810, 1833 and 1866 in the valley. According to NSET, earth quake of 1934 size occur approximately every 75 years indicating that a devastating earthquake is inevitable in the long term and likely in the near future.
Experts have already predicted that earthquake may rock Nepal any time due to the motion of the Indian and the Tibetan tectonic plates, on the borderline of which Nepal is situated. According to experts, Nepal lies in one of the most earthquake prone zones in the world.
Despite this fact, people are yet to develop a sense of preventive safety. According to an estimate, Kathmandu valley will face high number of casualties and loss of life in case of a major earth quake with magnitude of 8 Richter scale. As over 60 percent of the buildings have been constructed without following proper building codes, they are at the risk of destruction.
Monday’s quake should serve the positive task of making the people aware about the imminent risks.
