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Wednesday, February 7, 2007
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Vision East Asia : Pakistan is not countering India ’s influence
Dr. Ahmed Rashid Malik, Research Fellow at IPRI and Expert on East Asian Affairs, Pakistan
A doubt must be cleared at the out set: Pakistan is not countering India ’s influence in East Asia and Pakistan ’s Vision East Asia is not India-centered or directed. Rather, Pakistan ’s own national interest, long-term economic objectives, and growing security and strategic initiatives have been driving Pakistan to look eastward particularly in the post-terror period. So, in no way, Pakistan ’s Vision East Asia is designed to offset India ’s interests in East Asia .
Pakistan was the first country in South Asia or the non-Tiger and non-ASEAN country that embarked upon free market economy, privatisation and de-regularization in the early 1990s. At that time, Pakistan ranked 11th in terms of economic reforms and deregulation of the free economy in Asia after Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Fiji, and Indonesia. The following facts would reveal the above claim. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had been ahead of Rao in what should we term as Vision East Asia. Sharif was a mastermind behind carrying out a Look East policy for Pakistan to emulate the economic examples of Japan , South Korea , Singapore , and Malaysia . His Motorway project, for instance, linking Pakistan with Central Asia , is one clear example of Pakistan ’s Vision East Asia being built in cooperation with a South Korean multinational company, Daewoo, during 1992-97. This was a unique project in the whole of South Asia – a practical manifestation of Pakistan ’s Vision East Asia. Some other projects finalized in 1998 and 1999, for instance, Mera Ghar (poor-centred public housing) scheme was designed to build over 500,000 houses for the lower classes in the country inspired by a Singaporean model, and inter-city and urban transportation projects, based on a South Korean model, were in line with the same policy to maximize country’s economic interests. Therefore, it must be understood that Pakistan was far ahead of India in the practical implementation of East Asia policy instead of merely mincing words or simply trying to give the impression that Pakistan is engaged with East Asian countries. ‘ India has been rather weak in making its intentions materialize into actions’ with regard to its Look East policy as pointed by an Indian analyst. On the contrary, India is simply pursuing its Look East policy to remove doubts that India is seriously forging links with its East Asian neighbors. Pakistan ’s situation is entirely different from that of India as pointed out above.
Pakistan has devised a full-fledged policy toward East Asia and it has a long-term commitment toward this region based on bilateral interests and multilateral considerations. Therefore, Pakistan ’s Vision East Asia is not based on India ’s obsession or to counter India ’s moves. Moreover, there is a need to dispel this wrong impression that India ’s influence is growing in East Asia and that it is counter-productive for Pakistan . In fact, situation is other way round and Pakistan enjoys a privilege in its Vision East Asia for the following four solid grounds:
First, Pakistan ’s fight against global terrorism is pushing it to cooperate with East Asian countries to adopt measures to counter terrorism. For that purpose, Pakistan has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with several of East Asian countries from extreme north ( Japan ) to extreme south ( Australia ) for enhanced security and defence cooperation. So, Pakistan is fully exploiting the benefits of the war against terror with reference to its increasing influence in East Asia and beyond.
Second, if the China factor plays any role in East Asia , Pakistan naturally enjoys a much stronger presence in East Asia being each other’s long-term strategic allies. Pakistan has no competition with China unlike India . United States also would not like India influencing the region without its support. Japan , too, disapprovingly looks at India ’s presence in the region. Therefore, India ’s presence is encountered by all the big powers in the region.
Third, geographically India borders with several of South East Asian countries that also add difficulties in its relations with these countries. For instance, India ’s relations with Myanmar are extremely cold. Whilst China has established strong ties with Myanmar . Pakistan has good relations with both China and Myanmar . Therefore, the Beijing-Yangon-Islamabad triangle has the potential to narrow down India ’s strategic interests in East Asia .
In addition to this, without the cooperation of Bangladesh , for instance, India cannot materialize its long overdue dream of gas pipeline coming from Myanmar into India . Here, too, Pakistan ’s connections work well. Moreover, cracks that appeared on the Sino-Japanese relations in the recent months could have adverse impacts in Sino-Indian relations too. For instance, China ’s non-committal support to India for UNSC permanent membership and the former’s fierce opposition to Japan for acquiring the similar status gave the impression to Japan that both these two Asian joints would not see Japan running strong in Asia-Pacific and acquiring a greater status commensurate with its economic power in the international organization. For Japan , therefore, Sino-Indian collaboration raises many questions and points of concerns. Here too, Pakistan’s diplomacy, to keep India at an arms length and not to become a veto power, works quite well and gives the impression to Japan that Pakistan’s standpoint on the expansion of UNSC permanent membership, is basically India-centred. Pakistan ’s opposition also pacifies China ’s open support to India for UNSC.
Fourth, there is a considerable number of Muslim populations in South East Asia . The biggest country in the region is a Muslim country – Indonesia along with another influential member of ASEAN – Malaysia , in addition to Muslim Brunei. These Islamic connections of Pakistan with these countries naturally put Pakistan in an advantageous position vis-à-vis India in the region. If India has influence in East Asia , Pakistan has a natural advantage in the region, which cannot to be disregarded. Therefore, Pakistan ’s own geo-strategic compulsions and economic needs are the factors that push the country to look eastward and, by no means, Pakistan ’s Vision East Asia is India-driven or obsessed. Rather, Pakistan ’s Vision East Asia and India ’s Look East policy could yield better understanding, lessening of tension, and to help flourish the environment for peace, progress, and prosperity from South Asia to East Asia .
Therefore, global terrorism, China ’s increasing role in East Asia , together with Pakistan ’s support to Japan’s active involvement in East Asian affairs, and Pakistan ’s natural edge over a number of countries in East Asia without any bilateral dispute, are positive trends and factors that enhance Pakistan ’s role and involvement in the affairs of East Asia at present. Moreover, India simply cannot enhance its role in East Asia without side tracking the conventional strategic straitjacket and building peace with Pakistan to allow the former to extend more resources to increase and intensify the pace of its interaction with East Asia under its Look East policy.
Here an attempt will be made to examine Pakistan ’s changing and increasing role and its growing relations with the countries of North East Asia , Chinas, South East Asia , and the Oceania in the fast changing regional and global environment with reference to latest developments.
[Text courtesy IPRI Publication, Pakistan ]
