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February 2008

  INDICATORS
Corporate Scorecard
Second Quarter Performance of Banks & Fincos (Quarter ending on 14.01.2008)

Commercial Banks

Most of the commercial banks have recorded an increase in their net profit during this period as compared to the corresponding period of last year.

Nepal Bangladesh Bank has reported the highest net profit increase (628.76%) in this period. This increase can be attributed to a reduction in the provision for possible losses as well as a write back of provision for possible losses. Laxmi Bank has also increased its net profit by 146.68%, apparently as a result of a significant increase in the interest income.

However, Nepal SBI Bank has recorded a decrease in its net profit by 9.37% due to increase in staff and other expenses. The net profit for government owned Nepal Bank Ltd. (under the management of Nepal Rastra Bank for the last six months) also has reduced by a noticeable 79.02% apparently because of massive reduction in the write back of provision for possible losses.

Among the recently established banks, Citizens Bank International and Global have earned net profits of Rs. 30.91 millions and Rs. 32.8 millions while Prime Bank and Bank Of Asia Nepal have incurred net losses of Rs. 8.63 millions and Rs. 1.4 millions, respectively.

14.01.2008

14.01.2007

% Change

14.01.2008

14.01.2007

% Change

14.01.2008

14.01.2007

% Change

Not in operation in the first half of last fiscal year.

Development Banks

Like commercial banks, most of the development banks have shown an increase in their net profit as compared to the corresponding period of the preceding year.

Long-established Nepal Development Bank has reduced its net loss by 75.47% while Sanima Bikas Bank has increased its net profit by 134.67% helped by a whopping 300.89% increase in its non-interest income. Similarly, Ace Development Bank has notably increased its non-interest income by 76.54% and its net profit has gone up by 21.22% in this period.

However, Development Credit Bank has shown a reduction in net profit by 7.02% due to increase in staff and other expenses. Garima Bikas Bank, Country Development Bank and Kamana Bikash Bank have incurred net losses of Rs. 0.612 million, Rs. 12.356 millions and Rs. 0.866 millions, respectively.

Some development banks have shown a remarkable leap from net loss in the same period last year to net profit. Muktinath Bikas Bank recorded the highest increase in net profit: 2478.56%.

Development Banks

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Profit/Net Loss

14.01.2008

14.01.2007

% Change

14.01.2008

14.01.2007

% Change

14.01.2008

14.01.2007

% Change

Finance Companies

Also the majority of the finance companies have reported an increase in their net profit in the first six months of the current fiscal year as compared to the corresponding period last year.

Nepal Housing & Merchant Finance has considerably increased its net profit by 369.82% despite reduction in the total operating income. The major reason for the profit increase seems to be due to the huge non-operating income and reduction in the provision for bad debt as well as increase in the write back of the provision made for bad debt. Royal Merchant Banking & Finance has also increased its net profit by a remarkable 366.97% supported by a 62.69% raise in the interest income. Also Union Finance, Imperial Financial Institution and NIDC Capital Markets have shown a noticeable increase in their net profit.

However, Prabhu Finance has incurred a net loss of Rs. 16.8 millions in this period due to heavy increase in the interest and non-interest expenses. In the case of United Finance and National Finance Ltd., the net profits have reduced by 18.25% and 77.42%, respectively. Unique Financial Institution has incurred a net loss of Rs. 10.16 millions in this period.

Other prominent companies in this category, such as Annapurna Finance, KIST Merchant Banking & Finance, Goodwill Finance, Nepal Share Markets & Finance, Lalitpur Finance have increased their net profit compared to the same period last year.

Finance Companies

Interest Income

Interest Expenses

Net Profit/Net Loss

14.01.2008

14.01.2007

% Change

14.01.2008

14.01.2007

% Change

14.01.2008

14.01.2007

% Change


Currency & Money

Global Economy

• The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 5.50%,

• The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.00%

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 4.0%

• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice by 75 bps and 50 bps to 3.00%.

The Federal Reserve held an emergency meeting ahead of the scheduled January meeting and announced a 75 bps cut in the Fed funds rate to 3.50% pa. The Fed also cut the discount rate by 75 bps. Regional Fed President Poole voted against the interest rate move with concerns that it was not justified ahead of regular meeting.

Even with an aggressive cut, markets were still pricing in the potential for a further cut in rates at the regular January 30th FOMC meeting.

The Fed cut rates for the second time in a week, this time by 50bps, providing further support for indices but sparking renewed anxiety about inflation and the state of the economy. However, the severity of the problems with job growth was not clear until the release of the non-farm payrolls report. In the month of January, non-farm payrolls fell for the first time in 4 years. The 17k jobs that were lost, makes it difficult to argue that the US economy is not already in a recession and as a result, the Federal Reserve will need to continue to lower interest rates.

World stocks tumbled, leading bond yields mostly lower, after an economic stimulus package announced by President George W. Bush left investors somewhat disappointed. Bush called for a package of tax cuts and other measures totaling around 1.0 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, or up to $150 billion, after weak recent reports on employment, retail sales, factory activity, and housing construction this month suggested the United States -- the world's largest economy --may be heading into recession. The package has ideas like tax rebates, incentives for businesses and extensions of unemployment insurance.

As widely expected, ECB left rates unchanged at 4.00%. Comments from ECB officials were generally mixed with President Trichet stating that the bank would need to react to a crisis situation. Most ECB members still took a tough stance on inflation, especially from Weber. The Spanish Finance Minister stated that some members of the ECB were considering a cut in interest rates.

BoE left rates unchanged at 5.50%. As usual, BoE did not issue a statement for keeping rates unchanged. Market continues to expect further rate cut from BoE in the near term. Market volatility was extremely high as major moves in the equity and bond markets spilled over into the currency markets. Global recession fears increased sharply before some composure returned.

EURO - USD

The dollar gained support when global stock markets weakened sharply even though fears were triggered to a considerable extent over the US economy. The dollar strengthened to highs near 1.4350 against the Euro when risk aversion peaked, but the US currency then weakened sharply to lows beyond 1.4750.

GBP - USD

Sterling remained under pressure amidst expectation of 25bp rate cut by BoE and weakened to lows below 1.94 against the US currency before a recovery back to 1.9820 as the dollar stumbled and risk aversion eased.

USD - JPY

The dominance of risk conditions was illustrated by the fact that the yen strengthened to test the 105.0 level against the dollar before retreating to 107.80. The Euro also weakened sharply to near152.0 against the yen before recovering strongly to 159.

AUD - USD

Despite a sharp sell-off in commodity prices, the Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their gains.

INR - USD

The rupee came under pressure and weakened to as low as 39.78 after shares fell sharply. However, it strengthened back on expectations of capital inflows after the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cuts. The Indian Rupee ended at 39.35/36 per dollar.

Gold & Commodities:

Gold prices hit a historic $936.92 per ounce as the yellow metal was also boosted by the weakness of the dollar. Crude oil prices rose after another steep US interest rate cut but fell down below $90.00 p.b on fears of a potential U.S. economic slowdown.

Call Money

The local market was hit hard by liquidity crunch in the month of January due to issuance of shares by Agriculture Development Bank (ADB) and half yearly revenue payment to the government. This resulted in inter-bank rate to go above 8.50% which is above SLF rate. Nepal Rastra Bank was seen supporting the higher rates through increase in Treasury Bills rate. Banks were under tremendous pressure to increase their deposit rates and most of the banks opted for the same. Though NRB injected NPR 4 bio in the market through Repo, banks are still facing liquidity crisis.

The Research Desk (Treasury@Nabilbank)

Disclaimer: Trading in the Forex market carries significant risk of loss of capital. Our recommendations/views above are without any liability on our part. The user of the information will solely be responsible for the actions taken by him/her. The above information has been circulated for the purpose of sharing of our views on the markets without any liability on the part of the presenter/Nabil Bank.

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