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VOL. 27, NO. 32, April 25, 2008 (Baishakh 13 2065 B.S.) |
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Illusive
Mandate
As the vote counting is at the last leg, the results indicate that voters have not given absolute mandate to any single party to govern the country and write the constitution. Although CPN-Maoist emerged as the single largest party in terms of number of votes received and seats won in the first-past-post system, its strength in 601 Constituent Assembly is just over 30 percent. As nobody mustered enough strength to govern the country and write the new constitution single-handedly, the country seems to be heading towards another stage of political deadlock
By KESHAB POUDEL
"As the single largest party, it is our turn to form the next government," said CPN-Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda addressing a mass meeting in his constituency no 10 of Kathmandu. "People have already endorsed our programs through popular votes."
"We will bring constitutional proposal to remove monarchy in the first meeting of Constituent Assembly. As per the mandate given by the people, other parties must support us to form the next government under the leadership of CPN-Maoist," said Maoist leader Ram Bahadur Badal.
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People stand in queue to cast their votes: High expectations |
There is a confusion that the Maoist have a mandate to rule the country including making of the constitution but the peculiarity of this interim constitution treats Maoists as one of the minority parties like all others 12 parties.
Maoists have to depend upon other major parties to form a government and they need more such support to work out in making constitution
As voters gave votes to country's three major political parties, there is a fractured mandate. Whatever Maoist leaders claim, they, too, have failed not only to secure two third majority but even the simple majority to govern the country. Securing little over 30 percent of votes in proportional representation and winning 120 out of 240 seats under the FPTP election means the Maoist total strength will be around 220 seats in 60-member1 assembly.
"As all the parties are in the minority, the composition of the present house will compel parties to enter into compromise and concessions for every bits and peaces of constitution making and forming the government is equally challenging to them. The constitution is silent over the elections of the prime minister and formation of the cabinet. What is required is broad based consensus among major political parties. That way Maoists are not in any better position than other parties," said a political analyst.
As per the present constitution, no political party can form the government, even if it secures clear cut majority. Under the article 38 (1) of the interim constitution, the prime minister shall be selected by political consensus and the Council of Ministers shall be formed under the chairpersonship of the prime minister.
The article 38 (2) says if consensus cannot be reached pursuant of clause (1), the prime minister shall be elected by a majority of two-thirds of the members of the Legislature Parliament. (3) The structure of, and allocation of portfolios to the interim council of minister shall be determined by consensus.
Although the constitutional provisions legitimize seven parties as key players when the constitution was formulated, more than a dozen of other players are entering the CA following the election including Madheshi Janadhikar Forum, Terai-Madhesh-Loktantrik Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepal Sadbhavana Party and others.
Unlike the claim by the Maoists, forming the new government is not an easy matter. "We will see how Maoists will respond to our demands of autonomous single terai," said Upendra Yadav, president of Madheshi Janadhikar Forum.
Political Consensus
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Prachanda: Victorious |
At a time when no political parties has won majority to form the government on its own, the way out for any political party is to form the government through the political consensus among at least three parties.
With its emergence as the largest party with 220 plus seats in 601 member CA, Maoists require another 182 seats to form the majority government. Maoists can form the government in a situation when two out of three parties support them such as Madheshi Janadhikar Forum, Nepali Congress or CPN-UML.
Politically it is not easy for CPN-UML, Nepali Congress and Madheshi Janadhikar Forum to back the Maoists in power. Nepali Congress has lost a chance to be in the lead position but it will have significant say in formation of the government and making of the constitution.
The composition of the assembly is such that the Maoists can pull down any government formed with its support but other parties cannot pull down the Maoist government if it reaches to the power.
According to article 55 of the interim constitution, the prime minister can be removed only through two third majority. The article says the member of legislature parliament can register vote of no confidence against the prime minister, but a decision on the motion shall be made by two-thirds majority of the members of the Legislature-Parliament present.
Doubt Over Maoist
Given the recent track record of Maoist cadres of Young Communist League who terrorized the rural parts of the country by physically attacking candidates and supporters of opposition candidates, majority of leaders of Nepali Congress and CPN-UML are still reluctant to give support to Maoists to form the government.
They fear that the Maoists can start intimidating others once they are in a position where no party can oust them. "This will be suicidal for us. We cannot back the party which will introduce authoritarian system through our votes," said Govinda Raj Joshi a senior Nepali Congress leader.
Similar voices are echoing from the side of CPN-UML also. "Of course, Maoists have the right to form the government as the single largest party but how can we support them when most of our party workers were brutally attacked during the election," said Bam Dev Gautam CPN-UML leader.
Even Congress leaders like Dr. Shekhar Koirala, a well known Maoist sympathizer, has different attitude. "Maoists need to return the property captured by them and they must allow the internally displaced persons to go to their homes as a prerequisite to get support from Congress," said Dr. Koirala. "They also need to contain violent activities of Young Communist League."
Communist In Majority
For the first time in the history of Nepal, the parliament will have communist majority. In terms of votes secured by communist parties, their presence will be over 60 percent. As the center to the right has virtually become non-existent, there is a great vacuum.
"There are better chances for communists in broad sense if all the leftist parties come to a common agreement. Theoretically, it is in their common interest in the parliament. If they do that, the politics of the country will develop into ideological polarization between communist and non-communist. But in practical terms, it is unthinkable in present day Nepal in the geo-political context," said the political analyst. "Communist groups don't have the leader of that wisdom and guts to forge broad based alliances of leftist forces. Any attempt towards that will invite a serious operation from the external force mainly from the south. As all have burnt their fingers, there are no chances for such leftist unity in the country."
In this background, the NC has an advantageous position. NC is not a cadre based party like communist but it is a mass based party under a particular leadership. Prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala is not in haste in his desperation in the post-election period like CPN-UML's Madhav Kumar Nepal.
Koirala had definitely suffered a serious set back in his political prestige and appeal but the provision of this peculiarly drafted interim constitution has yet to give him a leverage to manipulate between different Constituents in the power.
Euphoria Over
The jubilation of winning the elections may subside in due course of time. Shortly afterwards, all constituents will be forced to join hands with each other for delivery of goods to the people
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Maoist cadres:How will they behave in coming days |
"From euphoria, Nepal's politics is now coming down to ground reality where political actors need each others' support. Given the nature of present constitution which is based on consensus, it is definite to invite some kind of deadlock in the formation of the government. Except in the case of abolition of monarchy, it requires two third majority to make the constitution functional," said the analyst.
Even on the issues of monarchy, the parties are gradually shifting their positions. Though they have committed to declare Nepal as republic, the parties are yet to frame the constitutional way to pass the resolution in the first meeting. Compared to leaders of political parties, the King is in relaxed mood as he has been spending his time taking part in family gatherings and marriage ceremonies.
"King is relaxed and confident. He is watching carefully the move of political parties," said a senior monarchist leader who met with the King recently. "Given the present political complications, King's position is more secure."
Experiments of Constitution
There had been experiments in the past with synthetic politics between heterogeneous views and interests during the Panchayt period. After the change in 1990, the first past post elections of the parliament had brought out ruling and opposition parties heading for almost two party system. Even during coalition government period, there were ruling as well as opposition benches. Those experiments were rejected due to abnormal political developments in the country and thus the constitution was scrapped away. Now again a synthesis of heterogeneous forces have come into practice and the present interim constitution reaffirms the same thing.
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Moaist office in Bhaktapur:Jubilant mood |
Different political parties are there in the field competing against each other but they don't have their distinct identity different than others. All the major political parties have share in the power and bear the consequences of being in power together. "The synthetic politics have been remodeled into a new form and people are denied of ventilating their grievances through a dependable opposition against the deeds and misdeeds of ruling force. Ultimately, the constitution will be a document of compromises in which all will gain something and all will lose something. Communists will definitely lose their ideological indoctrination and similarly democrats will lose their democratic appeal. In reality politics in Nepal will head towards apolitical synthetic experiments till the next upheaval which may not be too far," said the analyst.
From drafting the constitution in two and half years and running the government smoothly, they also need to have politics of consensus. It is inevitable that whenever there are internal disputes among major political parties, there will appear unseen force to manipulate.
"There are inherent compulsions for compromise for both internal as well as external players. Recent events on both the side of Nepal may force all to think seriously and behave responsibly," said the analyst.
Since Prime minister and ruling party will be handicapped even if Maoists come to power, the way ahead for the coming days will be very difficult and unpredictable. It seems inevitable that the political actors will have to spend most of their time in settling the political deadlock. This is what the message of fractured mandate is going to be.
Head-hunting
Who will head the new government is not clear yet
By A CORRESPONDENT
The Maoists have staked a claim to lead the new government. Naturally. Having emerged as the single largest party in the 601-member constituent assembly.
The claim is, however, not constitutionally binding. Either a consensus or a two-third majority is what the constitution requires any individual or party to lead the new government.
The Maoists do not even have a simple majority.
Consensus in favour of the Maoists looks increasingly elusive. After the elections that saw the former rebels shocking and surprising the major parliamentary parties.
Against this backdrop, prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala is reportedly giving second thoughts to his earlier decision to leave Baluwatar.
Known himself for intoxication of power Koirala is probably happy to be under pressure to reassess the situation.
The pre-poll-confident president of the Nepali Congress is said to be under pressure to continue in office as a consensus head of the government despite the post-poll shock. To prevent ultra-communist-led government.
“Behind-the-scene diplomatic moves are already afoot”, according to sources.
Plans are also said to be in place to persuade some other figures from the Nepali Congress or non-left parties, if Koirala did not oblige.
