The Shadow Of Violence
Amid the growing violence in Terai and capital Kathmandu, ailing prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala, the government, Election Commission and Seven Party Alliance have kicked off their election preparation but one is not sure whether the preparation will yield fruit this time. The recent indication from the SPA is that they will hold the election at any cost. Prudence says holding the election and constituting the elected parliament alone cannot guarantee political stability and end violence. Whatever one says, the election preparations are going on under the shadow of violence and it indicates its outcome
By KESHAB POUDEL
- Judicial Council has already recommended names of three judges to be appointed at the Constituent Assembly Court. The council also recommended the names for polling officers and assistant polling officers for 240 constituencies.
- Leaders of seven parties have already addressed five joint mass meetings in different places like Biratnagar, Jankpurdham, Kathmandu, Dhanghadi, Bhairawa and Nepalgunj and they will hold the last meeting on January 30 in Birgunj. All these areas lie in southern plain where various groups have been launching armed and unarmed agitation with demand for right to self declaration and autonomy for Madhesh.
Although political parties pulled large number of crowd from their bases to show their strength, all the mass meetings faced one or the other kind of resistance at local level. The first mass meeting in capital was jolted by a bomb blast and second rally in Biratnagar also faced similar situation. The worst was seen in Janakpurdham where three regional parties Nepal Sadbhvana Party, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum and Terai Madhesh Loktantrik party called general strikes to prevent the gathering of party workers of seven parties.
As they prepared for election, one of the first major crises the seven parties faced was when their student wings completely paralyzed the life of Kathmandu valley on January 22 and 23 protesting the decision to increase the price of petroleum products.
Similarly, terai-based armed rebel groups have already called a number of strikes and threatened to launch more violent agitations against the decision to hold the Constituent Assembly polls on April 10.
Security Plan
As the violence continues to paralyze normal life in southern plain, the government unveiled a new security plan for the election and Election Commission has already made preliminary preparations including sending logistics for the elections.
According to Home minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula; his ministry will mobilize 64,000 police and 69,700 temporary police. The ministry is considering deploying three police and three temporary police personal in each polling booth.
The ministry will also mobilize mobile police team and helicopters will be deployed in five regions to provide necessary logistic support to all polling booths whenever necessary. In troubled terai, the ministry will implement special security package for the election.
"Election will be held at any situation. If it is necessary, we can use force to quell the violent moves," said Sitaula. "We cannot postpone the election on the ground that there is violence in Terai. All people need the election of Constituent Assembly to fulfill their demands including demands of Madhes. We will maintain law and order for the election but one has to keep in mind that it might not be election like in the past."
On the other hand, the EC has already been dispatched election materials to district headquarters and is launching various kinds of training at the local level regarding the polling pattern.
Commitment of Seven Parties
By organizing joint mass meetings, leaders of seven parties have already shown that they want election. "There is no alternative other than to hold the election of CA on April 10," said Amik Sherchan, leader of United People's Front.
For the ruling party leaders, it seems that the election for Constituent Assembly is in top priority. These leaders in private conversation express doubt over the election but they speak for election in public. A senior minister of present cabinet, Pradeep Nepal, in his recent article, admitted that it is very difficult to hold the election.
Of course, the violence has been there for the last twelve years and all the election held in those period were held under the shadow of Maoist violence. In this context, there is possibility for both holding the elections on April 10.
Threat From Terai
The opponents from Terai-based regional parties and armed groups have already threatened that they will not allow holding the election in terai. "Violence has been gripping Madhes because leaders of the SPA have been resorting to false and condemnable expressions on problems facing Madhes," said J.P. Ananda, leader of MJF. "It will be difficult to hold the polls if the government does not take the Madhes issues seriously. Our third stage of agitation will begin from February 5 and the nation will land in chaos if the government does not take the problem seriously."
Leaders of Terai-Madhes Loktatrik Party, too, hold similar views. "There is no question of taking part in election unless the government agrees to our demands and declares whole Madhes as a single unit," said Mahanta Thakur.
Terai leaders' statements indicate that even if SPA holds the election, it will not bring the political stability and address the violent activities going on in the country. Those who boycott the polls will challenge the verdict of polls as in the past.
The most puzzling question at present in Nepal is whether the election would be held on declared schedule or not. Even a cabinet minister Pradeep Nepal has come out with an article questioning whether the election would be held or not.
"A meteorologist can predict a situation of weather but it is next to impossible to make a correct guess about the election to be held," said a political analyst.
Postponement of Election
The election has been postponed several times since October 2002 after the dissolution of the parliament by then prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. Deuba was removed from the power by Royal declaration for his incapability to hold the election.
For subsequent governments, one after another led by Lokendra Bahdur Chand, Surya Bahadur Thapa and again the revival of Sher Bahadur Deuba and in the last under the leadership of the King himself, all of them had failed to hold the election.
It is not due to the postponement of the election that the people suddenly appeared in the streets in a democratic manner in Jana Andolan II. Had that been the case, there would have been the same threat to the present government and its allies also but nothing of that sort is happening now.
"The people are in panic due to growing violence and instability inside the country but the same is not reflected in the face of politicians in power. People find prime minister in a fine pastime despite his health problem. Leaders of another extreme ally Prachanda also appears in TV screens with pleasant looks while leaders of that alliance also have the same look which need not be explained in detail. Either they don't have a decisive power to hold the election or they are in good spirits because of the prolonged stay in power without facing a trouble of election," said the analyst.
"If we cannot hold the election on April 10, the country will land in a prolonged course of civil war," predicted acting president of Nepali Congress Sushil Koirala who does not give any justification to prove his claim. "What I say will come true."
If one goes through the speeches made by the leaders of the ruling alliance published in newspapers, they echo similar concerns.
History of Political Instability
Political instability and violence is not a new phenomenon. Before the Jana Andolan II also, same thing had occurred time and again. There have been intense conflicts of opinion ever since political change of 1990.
“The present problem is not a new one and it has not originated from the party headquarters or the palace though all have been accusing fingers against each other except on the question of sharing leaves and fishes of power. Nothing holds them together as they lack both trust and respect to each other,” said the analyst.
During the last 17 years, all major political parties, one after another, formed governments but none were able to complete full terms. This kind of unstable political problem is not only with Nepal but also in other smaller countries of the region. However, the problem of instability has hardly been debated in public.
“Since last seven years, people have been put into the guess work about their right to franchise. The threat of violence was there all the time in those seven years when elections were postponed because of violence. The root cause of this violence and political instability is known to all the enlightened people and politicians, in particular, but solution of this problem cannot come through the internal forces alone,” said the political analyst.
Despite these kinds of unpleasant situations, Nepal's situation, however, is much different than troubled countries of Asia and Africa.
According to analyst, The secret behind this caution and calculated instability is apparent to all. The force, which is mainly responsible for this trouble, has kept watchful eyes for the entire time on the actions and reactions from the other side of Nepal.
“In such a situation, having an elected government alone, is not going to be a salvation from the prolonged crisis. Even if the election is held, major players will not be changed. The root cause of instability is not the sharing of power among domestic political parties of this country. The main source of trouble of Nepal is due to an unsettled relationship between its two big neighbors,” observes the political analyst.
While talking about the election, one has to keep in mind all these internal and external factors. As the country is preparing for the election, there is a great shadow of violence. The violence may erupt any time and may force the postponement of the election for the fourth time.
