For Pluralism or One Idea State?
Even after the announcement of a date to the Constituent Assembly election for the third time - scheduled for April 10, 2008 - majority of common people have a question in mind: will the election be held this time? As Nepal’s two neighbors' prime concern is security and seven party alliance government’s aim is to control state power, election does not figure as priority of anybody. Even for the common people – who, in any case, will have to choose the candidates from among the present members of parliament if there is an election - peace and stability are of primary importance. Even if the government holds the election at the present juncture when the proponent of one idea state is dominant in power, no body predicts whether elections will be held for pluralism or one idea state. By examining the priority of all the players, external and internal, one can easily draw the conclusion that only a miracle can make the election possible
By KESHAB POUDEL
- “Be assured the elections will not be deferred this time,” said Home minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula addressing a press meet just after the decision of cabinet to fix the election date “All the political leaders are sincere this time.”
- “The election would definitely be held as Nepali Congress leader and prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala and CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda, too, have assured me that they will not disrupt it,” said Madhav Kumar Nepal CPN-UML general secretary.
- “Don’t talk anything negative about the election. Election will be held as government has assured us that they will restore law and order and make all necessary arrangements to hold it,” said chief election commissioner Bhoj Raj Pokharel.
All of them seem enthusiastic about holding the election on schedule. However, terai’s new emerging political forces, whether they are proponent of peaceful agitation or armed revolt, have threatened that they will not allow the holding of elections.
- “My party would do everything to upset the forthcoming constituent assembly polls in terai districts and our struggle in terai is for sovereign homeland,” thundered Jaya Krishna Goit, chief, Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM-Goit).
In a face-to-face interview with Hindustan Times daily, India’s leading daily, in Sitamarhi of the Indian state of Bihar, Goit had said, “How can we allow election of Nepal to be held in our Terai? We are not Nepalis.” He said so on January 12, just a day after government’s announcement of new date.
Likewise, chairman of newly formed Terai-Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) Mahantha Thakur echoed similar words in Birgunj, southern industrial city, 150 miles south of capital. “As long as the Madhesis are not given complete autonomy, there is no question of holding the election for CA.”
At a time when leaders of seven party alliance kicked off a first elections campaign for the CA polls in capital Kathmandu organized a joint rallies on January 14, a bomb was exploded at the bus carrying the supporter of SPA. Eight persons, mostly supporter of SPA, were hurt.
This incident indicated that the elections and disturbance seem to go side by side raising suspicion on the future of elections.
If Nepal’s history is any indication, it also backs the logic that election for Constituent Assembly will have to pass through severe test. After the revolution of 1951, parties had agreed to hold the elections for CA within two years but it was deferred for seven years. Finally, instead of holding the election for CA, the election was held for parliament in 1959 following prolonged political instability.
“Let there be periodic election (for parliament) if not constituent assembly election,” said former speaker of House of Representatives, Damannath Dhungana. (See Spotlight November 23-29).
Even newly appointed minister Sujata Koirala has been personally lobbying for reviving Constitution of 1990 in case of failure to hold election of CA. “If you ask me, I would prefer to go to election under the 1990 constitution. If election for the constituent assembly cannot be held, I am for strong steps towards the general election,” said Koirala. (See interview Spotlight December 21-27)
At a time when there is confusion over holding the CA election, voices are being heard advocating a parliamentary election. However, there is no easy way to hold any election at present.
Preparedness For Election
Election Commission (EC) has already made public the time table for CA election. According to the Commission, the schedule for proportional representation system will be completed by March 25. Symbols will be distributed for the first-past-the-post system on March 3.
For the PR system, the parties will submit the closed lists to the EC office by February 20 and the EC will let the parties make corrections on February 21-27. The parties will present the corrected lists by March 5. The final list of candidates will be published on March 1. Election symbols will be given to candidates on March 2.
The commission has already decided to set up more than 15,000 booths and sub-booths for 601 members for the Constituent Assembly. Among them 240 will be elected on the basis of first-past-post system and remaining 335 will be elected on the basis of proportional representative system. Prime minister will nominate the remaining 26.
According to Election Commission, the voting will start from 7 in the morning till 6 pm on April 10. EC will mobilize 140,000 employees for the election.
To show their faith in the election, seven party alliance has already organized a joint mass meeting in capital Kathmandu and they will hold similar kind of mass rallies in various parts of Nepal in coming days.
But as was shown by the sudden bomb blast in Kathmandu on Monday after the mass meeting, the seven parties need to do a lot more to assure the public about security situation. Holding rallies and issuing public statements would not guarantee that the election will be held.
External Interests
In public statements, all the major external powers including Nepal’s southern neighbor India- which has the highest security stake in Nepal – express hope that the parties will hold the election.
India’s external affairs ministry spokesman publicly issued a statement when SPA signed 23-point agreement dubbing it as an encouraging development in the right direction. However, Nepal’s terai based rebels have threatened to disrupt the election from their hideout in Indian state of Bihar. Nepal may not be able to hold the election if terai based rebels continue to wage armed struggle from bordering cities of India.
Nepal’s northern neighbor China –which too has a security stake in Nepal- is much concerned about continuation of peace process and political stability in Nepal. Chinese ambassador to Nepal Zheng Xianglin in his recent interview to Nepal Weekly Magazine said that as a good neighbor, China sincerely hopes the peace process will realize the political stability and economic development in Nepal.
Western democratic countries including the USA, which have no security interest in Nepal, are genuinely concerned about holding the election. Promptly responding to the announcement of election date, United States welcomed the decision on Friday January 11 just a few minutes after the government made its decision public. “We congratulate the government, the parties and the people of Nepal on establishing a date for the CA polls,” said a statement issued by the US Embassy. “The US is prepared to offer assistance to allow all Nepalis to participate in the democratic process.”
Other European democratic countries, too, have issued similar statements like the United States of America welcoming the decision of holding the election.
“So far as the internal forces are concerned; they are subject to the geopolitical situation of this country. One cannot ignore the reflections of the on going regional conflict in the internal politics of comparatively smaller countries of this region. Nepal has a unique position in this context. It has been repeatedly mentioning a fact that in other countries internal situation determines the foreign relations, whereas in Nepal external relations determine internal power equation. So has been the situation all the time and particularly since resurgence of India and China as active forces in Nepali politics. Nation, however big and small and powerful they are, keep their national interest as the supreme goal in their political strategy while dealing with others,” said a political analyst.
According to the political analyst, instead of coming to direct confrontation, big powers in the modern age, go through covert operations to achieve their goals. “Keeping that into mind, one could not be amazed that the Maoist revolution in Nepal had India as its base. This fact was made public for the first time when all top leaders of the prominent seven parties reached Indian capital New Delhi and signed 12 points agreement against the secluded palace without presence of media. In recent weeks, when parties signed the 23-points agreement to hold the CA election, it was widely reported in media that India’s premier intelligence agency RAW’s chief had played a determining role. It showed that a democratic power need not push forward a democratic force to achieve its target - even a communist force carrying the name of a communist leader Mao could be used against China’s interest in Nepal,” said the analyst.
The analyst argued, “One can see in Nepal, democratic India using Maoist communists to promote its interest and communist China may find suitable the name of a nationalist King Mahendra or a democratic leader like B.P. Koirala.”
Pluralism or One Idea state
Even if all parties finally agreed to go for election, it is uncertain whether the elections will be for pluralism or one idea sate. Given the present political scenario and law and order situation, Maoists will not allow other democratic parties, regional parties and monarchist parties to campaign freely.
“At a time when one idea state champions are in the power, they would want to use the power as much as possible and as long as possible. Almost all communist parties fall in this bracket,” said the analyst.
Maoist leaders have already indicated this. ”We will not allow regressive and monarchists to campaign in the election,” said Maoist leader Prachanda.
According to Karl Mark, state power is of primary importance, which determines everything related to the state order. As Marx has enunciated the end justifies the means, the same thing has developed and translated into different context in different countries - Nepal being no exception.
In Nepal, communists have experienced varied roles from political adventurism to the leadership in the government. If the election is held, it will be a testing ground for their role in a pluralistic democracy.
Liberal Democrats
As the oldest party with its broadest appeal, Nepali Congress is in lead for a pluralistic society. Despite the weakness of its leaders as self seekers and opportunistic with their narrow outlook and selfish interest, it has a large number of dedicated persons with mass-based character.
There are other liberal parties also in the race for power but they are all fragmented fractions of the previous Panchayat politics. “As the Panchayat was party less system, so is the character of the politicians of that experiment. In spite of coming as one in a broad based liberal party, they have shattered into pieces. Combined together, they have a significant role in the politics,” said the analyst.
Although every body including leaders of seven parties, rebel leaders of terai and regional parties, have been stressing publicly that they want election, their response in private conversation is opposite to their public pronouncement. If the election is held, there is no guarantee that SPA leaders will get similar position and privilege. For external players particularly to Nepal’s southern neighbor, the present arrangement of non-elected government has not done much harm. Whatever political players say about election in public statements, nobody wants to go for the elections, which are always unpredictable. The blast occurred at the first show of strength of SPA indicated that the days ahead are not easy.
