Asian Powers

Brahma Chellaney explains how the rise of China, India and Japan will affect the rest of the world

By A CORRESPONDENT

Asian Juggernaut
The Rise of China, India and Japan
By Brahma Chellaney
Published by HarperCollins
Prices: Rs.632.00
Pages: 348

From small to bigger countries of the Asia and the world, the rise of China and India has already created many opportunities as well as challenges. Amid this, the presence of strong Japan and its relations with India and China is creating another dimension of this situation.

Every one has been predicting that the twenty-first century is going to be the century of Asia, particularly due to the rise of China, India and Japan. The rise of these nations is going to remodel the world's economy, security and other strategic matters. Thus, the issue needs thorough study.

In his book Asian Juggernaut, prominent and renowned Indian author Chellaney foresees the challenges in Asian region. "Asian Juggernaut is the first wide-ranging study that examines Asia in totality, employing the framework to focus on the critical China-India-Japan strategic triangle. In that sense, it is a pioneering study," writes Chellaney in his preface.

India's renowned strategist Chellaney observes how the tectonic shifts in global geo-politics will affect the global order and its implications on Asia. The rise of China and India along with strong Japan - Asia's future will be shaped by their relationship.

After connecting Tibet with the rest of China through the railway, the overall geo-strategic situation of Himalayan region has changed as China's military capability has drastically increased in the region.

"The mid-2006 opening of the US$ 6.2 billion  China-Tibet rail link fro Gormu to Lhasa, will accelerate the already-devastating exploitation of the Tibetan plateau's natural resources, militarily strengthen China's hold over Tibet and also its offensive military capability against India," writes Chellaney.

As Nepal shares border with India and China, the growing security concerns of India is definite to increase tension in Nepal triggering a long term political implication.  "The railroad links Tibet with eastern Chinese coastal belt, and helps tighten China's hold over the roof of the world," writes Chellaney. “A Southward railway spur from Lhasa to Xigatse – seat of the Panchen Lama's Tashilihumpu monastery – further strengthens China's military transport and reinforcement capabilities against India."

As India and China, which fought a bitter but short border war in 1962, are yet to settle their border disputes, frequent tensions still erupt between the two countries. The large number of Tibetans who has been living in exile in India is a major concern for China.  

Despite improvement of economic relations between the two Asian juggernaut, they are yet to reconcile with each other and there prevails a fear psychosis which can be seen in the book.

This is a good book for those who want to understand how the Asian scenario will evolve in the coming days. "As the three main players, China, India and Japan can set a model for other states in Asia by establishing stable political relationships that put the accent on mutually beneficial cooperation. Without these powers taking the lead, it may not be possible to deal with the increasingly complex security, energy and development challenges facing India," Chellaney draws the conclusion.

Highlights of the Book

-         At short notice, the People's Liberation Army can intensify military pressure on India by rapidly mobilizing up to 12 divisions. A string of new Chinese military airfields along the frontier with India have also come up, even as China builds up its missile strength on the Tibetan Plateau.

-         All in all, by beefing up Chinese logistic support in Tibet, the railroad arms China with multiple strategic benefits vis-à-vis India: enhanced power projection force capability; the option to step up direct military pressure; superior transport link with state that are part of the Indian security system (Nepal and Bhutan), a greater potential to meddle in India's restive northeast; and ability to dump goods in the India market via Nepal and the Chumbi Valley's Nathula Pass.

          - Eventually, China would like to extend the Tibetan railway to Kathmandu even as it presently expands its road link with Nepal.

-           Ever since the elimination of Tibet as the outer buffer, India has regarded Nepal and Bhutan as it inner strategic buffers. India would be gravely imperiled if it were to lose the two inner buffers. Chinese efforts to make strategic inroads in those buffers thus challenge Indian security. During 2005-Beijing sighed contracts worth several million dollars to supply Nepal with 25,000 rifles, 18,000 grenades, five armored personal carriers, two aircrafts and other unknown arms.

-         Having vastly upgraded its support infrastructure in Tibet and having begun expanding its transportation capabilities right up to its southernmost borders, China has developed influence over Nepal and Bhutan ……..

 -         Despite the emergent realism in India, the country – with its traditional goody-goody approach- has shied away from a doctrine pivoted on strategic balancing.

-           New Delhi's customary see-no-evil, do- no-evil policy on China only played into the hands of Beijing, encouraging it to expand its strategic leverage against India.