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VOL. 27, NO. 39, June 13 , 2008 (Jestha 31 2065 B.S.) |
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Picture Imperfect
As key actors play games from behind the screen, a blurred political picture lies ahead
By SUSHIL SHARMA
Two months have passed since the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) emerged as the single largest party in the constituent assembly elections.
Many thought the elections cleared the way for the former rebels to head the government.
The president-in-waiting Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ has considerably climbed down since then. He is now the prime minister-in-waiting.
Desperate to capture Singh Durbar, the former bullet-wielders have given in to many demands of the Nepali Congress and the UML -- whom they left
far behind in the second and the third positions in the ballot box.
They unwillingly dropped what they said was an unchangeable claim to the first presidency of the republic of Nepal.
They reluctantly agreed to a replace the constitutional provision of a two-thirds majority for forming and removing the government with a simple majority provision.
The Maoists are also, now, open to converting the controversial paramilitary outfit, the young communist league (YCL), into a civil body.
On diplomatic front, the opposite is the case with the Maoists. The scales have turned upwards after the elections.
The once-terrorist group has seen the envoy of the enemy numero uno visiting its chief at his residence.
Ambassador Nancy Powell’s call on Prachanda has been followed by another meeting with a senior state department official – the deputy assistant secretary of state for south and central asia during his recent visit.
More importantly, there have been no reports lately about Prachanda frequenting the most influential diplomatic mission in Kathmandu.
The tables have apparently turned. Post-elections, it is not Prachanda who is knocking the doors of the Lainchaur mission. Hence no fear of being ‘ambushed’.
It is the chief of the mission who is doing the rounds of Prachanda’s Naya Bazar residence or Buddhnagar office.
For all its flexibility in national politics and newly gained recognition and respect in international community, the rewards of power continue to elude the Maoists.
The wait of the former rebels to lead the Singh Durbar and of the Maoist supremo to occupy Baluwatar show no sign of ending soon.
With the most convenient flogging horse – the monarchy – dead, the search for a scapegoat is sure to begin soon.
In private, Maoist leaders admit that the problem lies not at home. In public, they have to sing a different song. The new lyric has Girija Prasad Koirala as the villain of the piece.
Said a very senior figure, “The real villain is hiding behind the screen, holding the remote control.” He would not elaborate, even in private.
The move to send senior leader and minister Krishna Bahadur Mahara to Beijing was an obvious attempt to win new partners in the journey to the power.
That move has backfired, according to the sources, despite assurances of support to China’s “stance on Tibet”.
Having not completed reading the minds of the Nepalese Maoists yet, Beijing has decided to invite a senior UML delegation, instead.
As key actors play their games from behind the screen, the picture is bound to be blurred. And the dream of peace, progress and stability a mirage.
POLITICAL CRISIS
Presidential Race
The race to become the first president of republic Nepal has turned ugly with parties busy undercutting each other
By SANJAYA DHAKAL
Party leaders are busy dropping names and hinting at possibilities as the race to become the first president of republic Nepal has intensified.
After the Maoists formally withdrew the name of their chairman Prachanda from the race – since they agreed for ceremonial president, the party has now backed Prachanda for powerful executive prime minister – they have started giving conflicting signals keeping other parties guessing.
First they proposed their preference for a person from civil society to become the head of the state. Immediately, they clarified that a political person, too, can become a president. But long before the Congressmen could salivate at the prospects of putting Girijababu on that coveted post, the Maoists came with another dampener saying they will not support top leaders of any party for the post.
Nepali Congress (NC) leaders including general secretary Dr. Ram Baran Yadav have already openly declared Girijababu’s name for the position. “He is the one who has helped bring the peace process this far. He brought the Maoists from the jungle to the peaceful politics, successfully held the Constituent Assembly election and engineered a smooth transition from monarchy to republic. His contributions must be recognized,” Dr. Yadav said.
Despite recognizing his contributions, the Maoists fear that Girijababu holding the office of president will compromise the ‘ceremonial nature’ of the post.
“That will create parallel power centers, which will create instability,” said Netra Bikram Chand, a senior Maoist leader.
In order to pour cold water over Girijababu’s ambitions, Maoist chairman Prachanda questioned his health and age. “We should give him a senior position in recognition of his contribution but not the president. Because as a president he will have to suffer from several tensions. We don’t want to give him any more tension,” he said.
Perhaps as a reply to Prachanda’s questions, Girijababu dashed to Khula Manch on Sunday (June 8) and gave a public speech despite heavy rainfall. The message was clear – Girijababu has not yet declared himself unfit on health or age ground.
The Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) is still sitting on the fence on this subject and has not backed any candidate including Girijababu publicly. It could be waiting for its own dark horse to charge at the last moment.
While the UML are keeping their cards close to their chest, the Maoists have dropped all kinds of names from Ram Raja Prasad Singh to UML's Sahana Pradhan, and from communist leader Nara Bahadur Karmacharya to civil society figures Padma Ratna Tuladhar and Dr Devendra Raj Pandey.
Singh’s name has figured prominently but in whispered tones. Analysts say the Maoists could back Singh to win the support of Madhesi parties.
Meanwhile, as the political stalemate continues over constitution amendment and power sharing, the parties have formed a taskforce representing three major parties - CPN (Maoist), Nepali Congress and CPN (UML) - to suggest ways to resolve the current deadlock.
The taskforce, on Monday (June 9), reached consensus on a constitutional amendment. The panel arrived at a conclusion to suggest constitutional amendment to appoint the prime minister and president by the simple majority of the Constituent Assembly. But the president can only be sacked through impeachment by two-third majority.
The taskforce comprises two representatives from each of the three parties - Krishna Bahadur Mahara and Khim Lal Devkota from CPN-M, Dr. Prakash Sharan Mahat and Radheshyam Adhikari from NC and Bhim Rawal and Agni Kharel from UML.
Political Deadlock
Despite showing optimum flexibility and compromise, political leaders fail to find a solution
By A CORRESPONDENT
"We will settle all our political disputes by June 10," said all powerful CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda following the declaration of Nepal as a republic (June 2). "We will form the next national government next week."
"We want both prime minister and president and there is no need to amend the articles of constitution before the formation of government. We cannot compromise on that," said Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai (June 3).
"We will be flexible as much as possible. We are ready to amend the provisions of the constitution as demanded by other parties," said Maoist leader Mohan Baidya Kiran, a week later.
"In next session of Constituent Assembly (June 5), we will propose necessary constitutional amendment bill," CPN-UML general secretary Jhalnath Khanal.
"There is a need for the politics of consensus for another ten years," declared prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala. "There is no question who will gain and who will lose what we want is political consensus."
Whatever they say publicly, from all powerful prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala to fire brand Maoist leader Prachanda and CPN-UML leader Jhalnath Khanal, the leaders of three parties which hold more than two thirds of seats in the assembly - are unable to implement their commitments. Though they hold constitutional power, it seems that is not alone enough to exercise the real power. If that is the case, where does the real power lie?
The reality shows that power lies somewhere else - not with the party's leaders. Whatever the position they hold in the constituent assembly, they cannot make or break the government and they cannot amend the constitution.
Since the last few years, whenever there were disputes among political parties, foreign missionaries had come to forge consensus. Every morning there are news of an ambassador of Nepal's powerful neighbor meeting with the leaders of main political parties.
Indian ambassador Rakesh Sood's recent remarks on the formation of government and amendment of constitution sparked a controversy. A Democratic National Youth Association, CPN-UML affiliated youth forum, even handed a protest letter to Indian Embassy on Tuesday opposing recent remarks of Indian ambassador Sood and Indian political party particularly BJP.
Interestingly, CPN-UML organization had not opposed any remark of CPI-M leader Sitaram Yechuri and other Indian communist leaders terming them as brotherly concern to strengthen democratic process.
Although the status of political leaders have transformed after the election for Constituent Assembly, what has not changed is their capability to exercise the decisive state power. Before election, Maoist leaders were not recognized like now. For instance, all the ambassadors and higher foreign dignitaries of powerful nations have started calling on Prachanda since the Maoist victory in election.
Till a few months ago, the situation was not like now. Prachanda had once boasted that he visited Indian embassy several times. But now, the new Indian ambassador Rakesh Sood visits Prachanda's house in Nayabazar – which shows the change in his status.
Although he is not decisive so far as making decision is concerned, Prachanda's personal capability has enhanced as his position is legitimized by mandate his party secured through the elections.
Unlike in the past days of underground politics, Maoist leader Prachanda has now several options in the open politics. He can meet whoever he likes. After the election, there is certain change in power politics as Maoists are now one of the players of open politics and number one contender to state power. Because of legitimacy they secured in the elections, there is qualitative change in the status of Maoists.
They are one of the players but not a decisive power in politics of Nepal. If they were decisive, Maoists would have formed the government as had been predicted by their powerful leader Prachanda.
"External powers particularly India and America do not want to see our party in the government. They are conspiring against us," said Mohan Baidya Kiran."Actually all political forces are helpless in front of them."
Nepali Congress - country's largest and oldest party - is virtually leaderless. Because of G.P. Koirala's age and his political mistakes, there is frustration and demoralization in the Congress rank and file.
The second generation Congress leaders are also demoralized. The party is suffering from defeated psychology. There is no imaginary and dynamic leaders in sight as the remaining leaders are subdued by G.P. Koirala's one man show.
"Nobody calls the central committee meetings to decide on major agenda. It is virtually one man show of prime minister Koirala. We don't even know how much of his voice prevails when we see the agreement reached at the last minute," said an insider of Nepali Congress.
The third largest party, CPN-UML is also in trouble and is itself struggling for survival. After the emergence of Maoists as the largest party along similar ideological platform as CPN-UML, the party's main concern is to retain its earlier position.
Though leaders of Nepali Congress, Maoists and CPN-UML discuss the agenda, their actions show that they are not in a position to exercise the decisive state power. They removed monarchy saying that it created the hurdle to exercise decisive power but they are unable to exercise the decisive power even after the abolition of monarchy.
