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VOL. 27, NO. 41, June 27 , 2008 (Ashadh 13 2065 B.S.)
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Beginning of End
Long on the verge of collapse, the seven-party coalition is finally falling apart
By SUSHIL SHARMA
It was long on the cards. It was inevitable. It is happening now. The seven-party coalition is falling apart.
The monarchy was the sole thread binding the seven parties together. That threat disappeared last month. Then reappeared the unbridgeable differences of the parties. Over power-sharing.
The differences held the constituent assembly hostage for a month. The assembly got down to the real business only last Wednesday.
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PM Koirala: End of Coalition |
It was not business as usual, though. Battle lines had been drawn the previous night. The Maoist communist party and the UML were on one side. The Nepali Congress on the other.
The three biggest constituents of the seven-party coalition had parted ways.
On the surface of it, the Maoists are poised to get the prime minister’s chair. Prachanda is the obvious choice. And the UML the presidential suite. There is no obvious name yet. The Nepali Congress will sit in the opposition. The undisputed opposition leader Girija Prasad Koirala.
The politics of consensus is dead.
The two big communist parties together have more than a simple majority in the 601-member assembly. On that strength, they are ensured a cakewalk in the newly proposed simple majority arrangement for the country’s top two offices.
The death of consensus politics should in normal situation augur well for democracy.
But there is a lurking fear of a head-on confrontation. “The game has just begun,” said an insider, “with a number of referees on the ground.”
Some see the unlikely coming together of the two biggest communist parties as a direct result of intervention of one of the referees. The reference is to China.
Knowledgeable sources dismiss the suggestion. According to them, China has still kept a distance from the Nepalese Maoists, despite the latter’s repeated attempts to woo it.
Sources quoted Prachanda as saying that China has advised the Nepalese Maoists to not annoy India.
But the potential consequences of a communist prime minister and president on its national security continue to haunt Delhi. Irrespective of the clout it has on them. Hence the need to keep a strong check on them
The Maoists have realized this, too. Said a prominent lawmaker involved in key power negotiations, “the demand for an opposition member in the national security council is not aimed at the Nepali Congress alone.”
The recent ‘revolt’ by junior officers of the armed police force against their seniors in Parbat and Banke and the open show of support of the Maoist newspapers and some senior Maoist leaders to the ‘revolt’ have further raised the alarm bells in the ‘security-sensitive’ capitals around Nepal.
This concern and the resultant confusion on how to deal with the emerging situation in its neighbourhood are expected to unfold a high-voltage drama in the constituent assembly in the next few days.
“The drama will throw many surprises,” said an insider. Does that mean Girija Prasad Koirala for president, still, and Prachanda for prime minister?
It’s anybody’s guess. But the end of the seven-party coalition will be no surprise. The coalition was doomed with the end of the monarchy.
