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VOL. 27, NO. 41, June 27 , 2008 (Ashadh 13 2065 B.S.)
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Deepening Crisis
Even after signing of seven-point pact on peace process and 20-point deal on constitutional amendment, there is no sign of a long term order and peace
By KESHAB POUDEL
Although the tabulation of fifth constitutional amendment bill at the constituent assembly temporarily settles the current phase of political crisis, the breaking of three-years-long honeymoon period of seven party alliance, which came into being following the twelve-point agreement signed in November 2005 in New Delhi, will invite more turbulent politics in coming days with the polarisation on various ideological and other ground.
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Seven Party Leaders: Deepening Crisis |
The two communist parties CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist are set to climb to power and Nepali Congress is set to stay in opposition. "The deal constitutionally ends the seven party alliances which were in effect since the signing of the 12 point agreement," declared Nepali Congress spokesman Arjun Narsingh K.C.
Twenty Points Agreement
Under the fresh political agreement, the government led by prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala finally registered 20-points fifth constitutional amendment bill in the Legislature Parliament on Wednesday.
Everything came like stage managed actions. Even for the seven party alliance, it took about two months after the CA election and one month after the abolition of monarchy to amend the constitution.
After the amendment of the constitution, the government formation will be based on the simple majority and there will be opposition party. President and prime minister will be elected on the majority basis. The government can also be ousted on the basis of simple majority. However, two third majority will be required to oust president and vice president.
Among others, the seven parties also agreed to extend the tenure of UNMIN by six months with a mandate to look into the integration of army. According to the deal, integration of Maoist combatants will be completed within 3 to 6 months and Maoist combatants will be brought within the purview of state with their political affiliation terminated.
However, there is disagreement over the position of opposition party in the National Defence Council. CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist disagreed with the NC's proposal to include opposition leader in the council. "The political deadlock is over and the country will have new elected president and prime minister," said Jhal Nath Khanal, general secretary of CPN-UML. "Maoists and our party will decide power sharing."
Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala will resign after the election of president and vice president. Koirala is habituated to creating crisis and facing the crisis.
Madhav Nepal's temptation created the fresh crisis. However, Ram Raja Prasad Singh, another aspirant to the top position of president, who came to Kathmandu all the way from terai has now disappeared from the scene.
Politics of Mess
There is mess everywhere. There is anarchy everywhere. Supreme Court is without full panel of judges, armed police faced rebellion, bureaucracy is indisciplined and humiliated, transport owners and students are on strike and the role of politicians seem only to create more problems.
For example, the step taken by Minister for Forest and Soil Conservation Matrika Yadav set an example how inhumane a minister can be. Never in the history, had a minister locked a high ranking government official in a toilet.
Rebellion in the armed police is another example of mess. There is no one to take moral responsibility for the rebellion in the armed police force. A person - who has lost the election - is home minister and who is supposed to be spokesperson of the incident remained silent.
In the past two months, the country has seen very unusual phenomenon. Prime minister Koirala had power without mandate and Maoists had mandate without power.
"It is not that Nepalis do not have calibre in them to restore order. There is mess because a powerful external power is mingling with internal politics. Its involvement has been increasing day by day and the crisis is deepening. Crisis is aggravating alarmingly," said a political analyst. "It seems that the country is going through a serious conspiratorial operation to dismantle its inherent capabilities to remain independent."
Nepalese politicians, who are unable to take the decisions on their own, are selling the dream all the time. They are circulating new political jargons one after another.
"Our politicians have become helpless instruments. Despite that the positive side of the politics in Nepal is the mass education through their everyday actions and interactions," said the analyst. According to the analyst, though people are not fully involved in the process, this political exercise is creating mass awareness in the politics of the country. Nepal has basically a rural society and, therefore, people generally get involved in the day to day event of the country - that way people are being educated for a multi-party political exercise.
There are disputes, strikes and conflicts among the parties but people remain still peaceful. It took several months to see the new government but people quietly watched it. Why is it so? "It is because of the inherent quality of the people of Nepal. So far as the common people in Nepal are concerned, they have a compulsion to live in interdependence in a multi-ethnic and multi linguist community," said the analyst.
Strategic Location
Nepal 's geographic location, which is very unstable and violent in nature as it is at the center of two major tectonic plates, very much responsible for political upheavals in Nepal. "Fortunately and unfortunately, Nepal is sandwiched between two emerging regional powers. Whenever there is some unease in relationship between them, Nepal is seriously affected more than any of their other neighbours," said the analyst.
The present crisis started from the Maoist demand for abolition of monarchy but there was competition among other established political parties to champion the demand. However, even after the abolition of monarchy and declaration of Nepal as a new republic, the country is not going to have absolute peace.
"Time and again, I have mentioned that the crisis of Nepal is not a crisis of internal origin but an outcome of an external and particularly regional crisis. For example, the recent events of anti-Chinese activities of Tibetan refugees in Nepal have dragged China's attention much seriously in Nepal. The center of the trouble is not Nepal but somewhere in India where a large number of Tibetan refugees have been living along with their spiritual head Dalai Lama. Why Nepal has been preferred as a play ground for them instead of India?" asked the analyst.
“As Nepal embarks on its new journey, a lot depends on how these two neighbors, India and China, behave. Of course, both will be wooing the new republicans of Kathmandu — it would only be a natural thing to do — but any muscle flexing by one would prompt the other into action, leaving Nepal in a welter that won't be comfortable to either. We don't want to see Nepal become a cold war hotspot,” writes Indian journalist Barun Roy in Business Standard.
Nepal’s peace will depends upon the regional situation. According to the political analyst i n a regional context of rivalry, it is unthinkable to have a completely peaceful and orderly political situation in Nepal. What is going on in present day Nepal has a long background. Instruments and tactics have been changed but strategies are in continuation. One after another, several facets have been in change since long. Earlier, it was a leftist-facet and now there are several regional facets both in the hills and terai."
“ Nepal may still have to suffer for a long time but it will never be like Sudan, Afghanistan or any such conflict-ridden countries. The reason is that it will have a serious spill over effects on both the sides which prevents them from using extreme means," said the analyst. " Nepal's crisis emanates from its geographical location but the location also is a guarantee for its survival."
