NEPAL MUST EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION
DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
AB Thapa
We should not fail to understand that the development of mega water resources project can be a great challenge even for superpower countries like China. It can be said from the past experience that our country is yet to learn in depth the complexity of problems associated with the development of our mega water resources projects.
China’s TGR vs Karnali Project
The proposed Karnali Chisapani Project is one of the largest in the world. In many ways it is comparable to the China’s Three Gorges Project ( TGP ) which has been drawing since a long time the attention of the whole world because of the enormity of its size. The total storage volume of the Karnali Project reservoir is 39 billion cubic meters and similarly the total volume of the TGP is also about 39 billion cubic meters. After the full development the total installed capacity of the Karnali Project power station is expected to be about 16 million KW. The installed capacity of the TGP would be only slightly greater. It would be 18 million KW. Both these projects can provide enormously large irrigation, flood control and navigation benefits. It is interesting to know the views of the people of China and Nepal about their respective projects.
According to Lu Youmei, President of China Yangtze TGP Development Corporation, the Three Gorges Project has remained as a dream for the China for more than 70 years. Implementation of the TGR is seen as the greatest challenge before the Chinese people and that country is seen to have spared nothing to fulfill the ambition of the Chinese people to harness the mighty Yangtze river even though it is taking such a long time.
Policy makers in Nepal are seen taking a completely different type of view about the Karnali Project, which is has been presented sarcastically in an article published sometimes back by the former Managing Director of NEA Mr. SB Pun. He has written “ …When DPM, Ms Shailja Acharja, wrote to the Enron executive, HD Ramm, to defer their license application until a suitable environment ( read downstream benefits) is created, all hell broke loose. Our Parliamentarians were so much educated with the virtues of private sector and foreign investment that even her own Congress Party wailed and bemoaned that she had killed the goose that would have surely laid the golden eggs.” In fact the description of Mr. Pun does not go far enough. When Ms. Shailja Acharja tried to justify her decision to defer the license in the parliament, the house virtually exploded with outrage. She was prevented from delivering her reply in the parliament.
Karnali Project Potential ( Chisapani)
When the American multinational ENRON for the first time approached the government to grant permission to develop the Karnali Chisapani Project exclusively for power generation, a report was published in the WECS bulletin ( September, 1997) that might have slightly helped to delay the decision to award the Karnali Project. At that time the Karnali Project escaped from falling into the clutches of multinationals.
The Karnali Project (Chisapani) has the potential to provide irrigation benefits to India that could be as much as two times greater than the power benefit if it is presumed that the hydropower station capacity would be limited to only about 3000 MW to generate electricity primarily to meet the demand for base load and the dry season flow of the Karnali river would be completely used in Nepal whereas the irrigation in India would be entirely dependent on the regulated flow. If Nepal and India agree to follow the principle of sharing of downstream benefits as laid down in the Columbia River Treaty between the USA and Canada, Nepal could then have virtually free of cost the Karnali Power Project ( scaled down). Nepal would have been able to earn annually a net revenue of about US $ 2,000 million. The economic potential of the Karnali Project would be lost forever if arrangements are not made to recover the irrigation and other downstream benefits well in advance. A shortsighted decision would not only lead to the giving away of the Karnali water resources but it would also result to losing the future market for irrigation in India adjacent to Western Nepal that would be saturated with freely available regulated Karnali water flowing into India from Nepal.
Storage Dams Not Needed
Nepal does not need to build Karnali or West Seti storage dams to supply water for irrigation in Nepal. The natural flow of the Karnali river itself is more than sufficient to provide all the year round irrigation across the Western Terai. We have full right to draw water from the Karnali river for irrigation. The 1966 revised Kosi agreement which is the latest trans-boundary river agreement between Nepal and India serves as a precedent that has helped our right to draw water from any other trans-boundary river for irrigation in Nepal to be recognized by both the countries.
A Common Strategy
Nepal has embarked on a plan to launch three major storage dam projects in Western Nepal completely disregarding how the vast quantity of regulated water is going to be utilized for irrigation in India. The feasibility study report of the Karnali Project carried out under the aegis of the World Bank provides in depth information on downstream uses.
The Karnali, West Seti and Pancheshwor projects are in the same Karnali basin. There is already a network of unified irrigation canal system in Indian territory to draw regulated flow from these projects. The electricity generated by future power stations belonging to these projects would also have to be supplied more or less to the same region. Nepal should, therefore, conduct a combined study of all these three projects taking into account the demand for power and irrigation in India to develop a common strategy to determine the best sequencing of these projects from our perspective.
Flood Control
A document published by the United States Department of Energy under the heading HYDROPOWER FACTS, 1998 indicates that out of the total dams built in the USA the primary benefit of 15% is flood control. The primary benefit of only 2% and 11% are hydropower and irrigation respectively. The Karnali storage reservoir will have enormously large flood storage capacity estimated to be about 11 billion cubic meters. There is a need to carry out the study to determine the scale of flood control benefits in downstream regions from the storage of flood water in the Karnali Chisapani reservoir. The Karnali feasibility report could not cover the flood control benefit study due to lack of data. A short excerpt from the Karnali project feasibility study on flood control is presented hereinafter.
"The Chisapani project has a substantial storage volume above the normal full supply level (FSL) for the purpose of storing and reducing incoming flood peaks. These will be discharged over the ungated spillway, which has a crest elevation at the normal FSL of 415 m. The resulting routing of floods will reduce the peak outflow of large flood peaks on the Karnali at Chisapani to about 20 - 25% of the peak flow. This will eliminate virtually all flood damages on the Karnali below the project site in Nepal, and flood damages will also be reduced further downstream in India, and even in Bangladesh. Benefits further downstream in India and in Bangladesh are very uncertain due to lack of data."
Inland Navigation
In the past the Karnali River was considered to be attractive for the development of navigation right from the Indo-Nepal border till the confluence of this river and the Ganges. The lower reach of this river was used in the past for navigation by steamers. The possibilities for further extension of the steamer services to the north had also been explored in the past. The Central Water and Power Commission of the Govt. of India had carried out hydrographical survey of the Karnali River from the Bahramghat to the confluence of this river and the Ganges a distance of 446 km. This survey was done in the years 1943-53 to explore the possibility of improvement and extension of navigation on this river by powered crafts. These surveys revealed that there were only 5 shoals under 90 cm at low water between Burhaj and Bahramghat a distance of about 300 km. The minimum depth was 75 cm. These depths were available without any river conservancy works. All other conditions of navigable channel such as the width and current of flow etc. were also found to be very favourable. The low water stage in this river is only for a short duration. There is a great urgency to carry out detailed study of the Karnali river to develop modern inland waterway by applying various channel improvement technologies. Needless to say that the consent of India is necessary to develop the Karnali waterway linking Nepal with the Ganges. Thus any difference in opinion should be settled with India before we take the decision to implement the Karnali Dam Project at Chisapani.
In Conclusion
Nepalese people should never compromise broader national interest for the sake of a quick deal. The Karnali Dam project at Chisapani has been a dream of the Nepalese people for last 50 years. The advice of Mr. Paul D. Terrell Jr. of Bechtel Company of USA who worked as Chief Advisor Consultant of the Karnali Project is very close to the heart of every Nepali. Mr. Terrell has advised us " The present institutions should beware of giving away Nepali Children's rightful inheritance" It is perfectly clear that Nepal must exercise extreme caution in development of Karnali Dam project at Chisapani or our any other mega water resources projects.
