COLD SNAP : People warm themselves besides a fire in Naryangadh bazar. Of late Terai districts have been experiencing cold weather and foggy conditions due to a cold snap .

Economy billed to bounce back Indicators put growth rate at 6pc

-By Ameet Dhakal  

KATHMANDU, Jan 9 - After over five years of continued slow-down, Nepalese economy is all set to bounce back with a growth rate of about 6 percent bolstered by robust growths in agriculture sector and foreign trade.

The half-yearly estimations of the Gross Domestic Products (GDP), which is at the final stage of computation at the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), projects the expansion of the economy at an impressive 5.5 to 6 percent in the current fiscal year ending mid-July 2000. While Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) projection indicates six percent plus growth rate.

If attained, it will be for the first time that the GDP targets set by the Ninth five-year Plan ending 2002 will be realized.

Economy grew by average 3.6 percent in the last five years. It slipped to low equilibrium after attaining last fifteen years’ record high growth of 7.9 percent in the fiscal year 1993/94.       

The major boost to the economy this year comes from the agriculture sector, which is expected to grow at 4 percent plus point for the first time in the last five years. Non-agriculture sector is expected to grow at over 7 percent.

Though the harvest of winter crops will decide the exact agriculture sector growth rate, experts say variations will be nominal since winter season is generally less precarious for the sector. Agriculture sector, which contributes over 40 percent in the GDP, grew by meagre 1.1 percent last year.

Agriculture sector growth will be crucial for the revival of the economy, says Dr Yuba Raj Khatiwada, Chief Economic Advisor at the Nepal Rastra Bank. It will have two way effects: On the one hand it will prop up the aggregate demand through increased income of the wide array of households engaged in agriculture sector and will have a tremendous multiplier effect. On the other hand, it will dampen prospect for price rise through increased supply, says he.

Though the agriculture sector is on the steering; it is the upturn in manufacturing activities, foreign trade and development expenditure that has played a key role in the economic recovery.         

Until last year, only export - one component of foreign trade was growing, while dismal growth in agriculture, manufacturing, import and development expenditure continued to throw cold water over the revival prospect. This year all these key sectors are pointing towards right direction: export is growing at over 30 percent, import at 35 percent, manufacturing index at about 10 percent and development expenditure has grown at an average of over 35 percent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

Growth in agriculture sector, foreign trade and development expenditure combined, controls the overall growth of the economy, says Dr Shankar Sharma, member of the National Planning Commission (NPC).

Regression estimates show that these three sectors contribute over 95 percent in economic growth, says Sharma.

The expected growth for this year is also uniquely different from the previous high growth rates. This year, higher growth is likely to be attained at low level of inflation. Urban Consumer Price Index has already subsided to historic low of 2 percent from around 10 percent at the beginning of the current fiscal year. Experts hope the macroeconomic stability reinforced by low inflation and political stability would anchor a long-term economic revival.

Though next years’ agriculture sector growth remains as unpredictable, experts are banking upon the bouncing manufacturing sector growth pulled by export growth for long-term revival.     

The manufacturing sector data compiled by the NRB, shows that the production of construction materials like cement, iron rod, plywood, electricity appliances and GI pipes has seen upturn in the last one year. Likewise the production of beer, tea, paper and plastic goods has also revived. While the production of woolen carpets, ready-made garments, vegetable ghee, toothpaste, soap and jute goods, which are among the country’s leading exportable items, continue to maintain their last few years’ winning streak.      

Increasing supply of narrow money, which has crossed over 3.5 billion rupees in the first quarter of the economy also, justifies the increasing economic activities. “ Since out of the released narrow money, only 1.25 billion was absorbed by the government it reflects that the rest was pulled by economic activities,” says Khatiwada.

Beside the growth in these sectors, increasing tourism arrival and growing inflow of remittance will provide cushioning to the growth. Increase in the pension of the British Gorkha’s alone will pour in over a billion rupees into the economy from this year onwards. Strengthening stock market reflected in the record high NEPSE Index of 265 point and record high foreign exchanges reserves equivalent 80 billion rupees make up an additional anchor for the growth.

Nepal lands in a big pot of bother now

-By a Post Reporter 

BIRATNAGAR, Jan 9 - Nepali Congress (NC) President Girija Prasad Koirala, in a chance encounter with CPN (UML) General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, urged the latter to clarify the party’s “equidistance policy”.

In its national council meeting last month, UML adopted a policy of “equidistance” with both the NC and underground CPN (Maoist). The Maoists are currently waging a bloody insurgency against the state.

A furious Koirala to General Secretary Nepal asked, “Are you people democrats or Maoists? How could you formulate policy putting democratic NC and anti-democratic Maoists at equidistance?”

Koirala further said, “there has to be national debate regarding your policy. People have to know whether the UML is democratic or Maoist. You shouldn’t have made such a policy.”

General Secretary Nepal did not reply to Koirala’s outburst, eyewitnesses said. The two leaders came across each other at a chance meeting at the Biratnagar airport on Sunday. Koirala was coming home from Kathmandu while Nepal was boarding a flight to the capital.

Call to come out of dependency syndrome

-By a Post Reporter 

KATHMANDU, Jan 9 - Intellectuals today urged political leaders  to keep guard against the foreign-dependent syndrome and remain vigilant on issues of national interest. On more than one occasion, Nepal’s history has been virtually guided by foreign powers and it was time Nepalis learned to chart their own course. “It’s a fact that the fate of Nepal’s democracy in 1951 was decided in Delhi,” said Khagendra Sangroula, a writer. “Indian media’s portrayal of Nepal after the (Indian Airlines) hijacking is the failure of our political leaders.”  

Even the communist parties, who have made Kalapani an open “nationalist agenda”, have failed to look after the common Nepali  while India is better taking care of the people currently living in the Indian-occupied Kalapani supplying them even with the basic consumer items, Sangroula said at a seminar today.

The “nationalist agenda” will not be successful in the country until people’s participation at all levels is ensured.

“We have had many examples of leaders not fulfilling the responsibility assigned to them ever since the democratic movement of 1990,” said professor Dr Durga Prasad Bhandari. “This in itself is against the nation’s interest. That is why democracy is still in its infancy despite various contributing factors being in place in the country during the last 10 years.”

Refuting charges of indifference toward the nation among the Nepali diaspora living overseas, former Ambassador to France Trailokya Nath Upretti said the feeling of patriotism is strong in that community.

General Secretary of Unnatisil Nepali Samaz (UNS) Ram Prasad Gyawali said the country does not even have a national day at present where the citizens can celebrate and express their patriotic feelings. He said political partisanship had become so strong among our intellectuals that it had begun to be a roadblock to the country’s development.

The interaction programme, jointly organized by UNS and Research Academica for Humanism and Jay Prithivi, marked the beginning of a three-day programme on the occasion of National Unity Day on Jan 11.

Doubts linger over PM’s India visit

-By Narayan Wagle 

KATHMANDU, Jan 9 - The hijacking of an Indian Airlines jet last month could further push back Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai’s already delayed official visit to India, informed sources said.

The visit, already delayed once due to the special parliamentary session called by the opposition CPN(UML) last month, has come under a cloud of uncertainty because some senior officials want to delay it further given the recent hijacking incident, sources said.

“After the recent hijacking, I don’t think the prime minister should go on an official visit to India just yet,” an official said on condition of anonymity. “It would be immature to do so.”

After Bhattarai postponed his visit last month, he proposed the second half of February for his India visit. While the two governments were still working to finalize the dates, the hijacking incident occurred.

Soon after the hijacking was resolved on the eve of the new year, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, in a letter to Prime Minister Bhattarai, urged the latter to quickly fix the dates as per the earlier understanding.

But at this juncture, some senior officials want the visit delayed further because of the chill in bilateral relations caused by the indiscriminate allegations in the midst of the hijacking.

“Under the new circumstances, there is no meaning of a visit as per the earlier understanding (for a February visit),” an official said. “The hijacking has affected Nepal-India relations and to go on a visit at this time would have to be reconsidered carefully.”

Another senior official said, “At a time when there is mutual suspicion on both sides, an official visit would not be appropriate.”

While such concerns are being raised from some quarters, both the governments, however, have not yet officially worked on fixing dates for February. Nor have they formally started work on further delaying the visit.

The Foreign Ministry would not reveal any details about the upcoming visit, but the chief advisor to the prime minister Dr Narayan Khadka said, “We are talking (on the dates) as per our earlier understanding.” He would not reveal whether dates had already been finalized. “It is our tradition that a new prime minister visits India first,” Khadka said.

Sources say, Prime Minister Bhattarai’s advisors and government officials are currently split in two groups who are giving conflicting advise. Some want the PM to undertake the visit as per the understanding, while others want the visit delayed.

Meanwhile, it seems that the Indian government is expecting much from Prime Minister Bhattarai’s impending visit. Sources say, if Bhattarai embarks on his visit now, India could wring major concessions from Nepal through the signing of bilateral agreements.

According to a reliable source, Indian Premier Vajpayee, in his recent letter to his Nepali counterpart, urged the Nepal government to clamp down on activities of the Pakistani intelligence service ISI. That was also the essence of a report in the Indian Express newspaper.

The source further said that India had already prepared two treaties which it wants Bhattarai to sign during his visit. This was also borne out by the Hindustan Times, which recently reported that India wanted to sign two bilateral agreements with Nepal during Bhattarai’s visit - “Mutual Legal Treaty on Criminal Matters” and a “Memorandum of Understanding for Combatting International Crime and Terrorism.” 

Besides, officials say, there has not been much progress on building a conducive environment for resolving the Kalapani and Nepal-India 1950 Treaty issues - issues which Nepal wants resolved.

Moreover, the expulsion of a Pakistani Embassy official last week after he was caught red-handed with counterfeit Indian banknotes, hands India potent ammunition to make further allegations of ISI activity in Nepal.

“At a time like this, to go on a visit to India would mean to face Indian allegations over security,” an official said.

Advisory committee formed for landfill site

KATHMANDU, Jan 9 (PR) - In order to select and suggest projects to be implemented at the proposed Syuchatar landfill site, the Ministry of Local Development today formed a 29-member Recommendation Committee.

Members of the committee include secretary at the Ministry Uday Raj Soti, chairman of Syuchatar VDC Shyamsundar Thapa and representatives from the National Planning Commission, Finance Ministry, Ministry of Works and Transport and the neighbouring VDCs of Bhimdhunga, Ramkot and Sitapaila.

The members of the committee, however, expressed their dissatisfaction over the formation and their inclusion in the committee without their consent.

“Not any of the elected representatives are satisfied with the formation of this recommendation committee,” said chairman of Syuchatar-8 and a member of the committee Nandanhari Gautam. He warned they will protest if the government does not take back its decision. “We had already notified the government that we will not stay in the committee.”

According to Gautam, the Minister for Local Development had appealed for consent from the local representatives to construct the landfill site. After their refusal, he told the government he would go with the construction of the site even if “by force”. The minister and secretary could not be reached for their comments.

The government aims to open a new dumping site in Syuchatar after its contract with Mulpani, Gokarna dumping site ends on February 12. However, the government has been unable to setup a new site due to strong protests carried out by the locals of Syuchatar.

Government officials admit that the landfill site will not be ready within a month. “Even though we rush our work, it is impossible to finish the work within a month,” said coordinator at the National Council for Solid Waste Management Dr Kul Prasad Marahattha. “We are thinking of extending the use of Gokarna dumping site for one and a half more months.”

Hijacking incident goads India to the need to regulate border 

-By Kavita Sherchan 

KATHMANDU, Jan 9 - The hijacking of Flight IC-814, and the consequent disquiet, has come as a wake-up call for India.  Always non-committal on the issue of regulating the porous border, India makes noise only when it finds itself in trouble.

“India has so far not been keen to do anything about the open border,” says Ganesh Raj Sharma, a senior advocate. “Now that India is facing adverse circumstances it is pointing out the pitfalls of an open border.” He describes India’s border policy as “inconsistent”.

In recent times, Nepal’s border areas have been increasingly portrayed as an easy and safe escape route for terrorists and fugitives. 

There has been a surge of reports and articles in Indian newspapers in the aftermath of the Dec 24 Indian Airlines IC 814 hijacking episode where one or the other person is quoted as saying how easy it is to walk across the border into Nepal by just greasing the palm of security officials. Nepal is being projected as a safe haven for terrorists and anti-Indian elements who take advantage of the open border.

Whatever weapons and arms are seized in India, the Indian government points out at “lax security along Indo- Nepal border”. Although it shares borders with six countries -- Bangladesh,  Bhutan, China, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan -- India has found a convenient scapegoat in Nepal to sacrifice at the altar. The around 1700 kilometres long open border between the two countries has time and again come under attack. More so now. What India has avoided discussing is the policing of the open border. 

The attack, and concern, have come from the highest level this time. Indian Express reported that Indian Prime Minister A.B Vajpayee wrote a letter to his Nepali counterpart Krishna Prasad Bhattarai expressing grave concern over the lax security in Nepal. Vajpayee requested Bhattarai to take action in “cleansing the Pakistani intelligence ISI’s network in Nepal”.

The Hindustan Times also wrote that the Indian PM voiced concern to Bhattarai in a telephonic conversation. The January 4 report mentions that the security related matters will be raised at the meeting of Nepal-India Joint Working Group (JWG), a technical committee formed to look into border demarcation.

“Earlier it suited India to have the unregulated border,” says Sharma. “But now it has become damaging to India’s security as well. Maybe that’s why it has felt the need for regulation.”

Jhala Nath Khanal, chief of CPN-UML’s Foreign Affairs Department, says it has become imperative to regulate the border with India, especially after the recent incidents.

He said Nepal should do proper homework and come up with a proposal to regulate the border, adding the government should keep India’s hegemonistic attitude in mind while working on the mechanisms.

Khanal said this issue was raised with India when CPN-UML was in the government and India had agreed in principle on the need of regulation. But, despite the consensus on the need for regulation, Indian government has so far avoided taking any positive steps towards this direction.

Arjun Narsing K.C, chief of Foreign Affairs Department, of Nepali Congress says there is a need for the regulation but it has to be a gradual process and the decision has to be taken mutually. “The two countries should sit together to regulate the border,” he says.     

However, Sharma says there is no need for discussion. He says Nepal should just start demanding travel documents from Indians.

“There is no need to sit with India to decide on regulating border,” he says.

“There is no need to formulate laws or sign a new treaty. The government can take the decision on its own and regulate the border henceforth.”

According to Sharma, since Nepal has not signed any treaty with India to keep the border open it does not need to get into discussion with India to regulate it. Nepal’s Immigration Act states that the non-Nepali national has to furnish travel documents before entering Nepal.

“Nepal can just implement that Act. As it is, India is not religiously following the open border policy with Nepal,” says Sharma.

“They have been harassing Nepalis for the past 25 years.It has been demanding documents from Nepali travellers.” 

Polio eradication in Nepal linked to India

-By a Post Reporter 

KATHMANDU, Jan 9 - Nepal will be polio-free by next year if cases of the crippling disease entering from neighbouring India can be controlled, experts said here today.

“Nepal cannot be declared polio-free until the states -- Uttar Pradesh and Bihar of India reach that status,” said Dr Hukum Dev Shah, director of Child Health Division (CHD). “These are the most affected areas of India since two-thirds of the total reported cases in India occur in these states.”

“The bordering Terai districts are the high-risk areas since they are close to these two states of India.” added Shah. “The government will implement sub-National Immunization Day (Sub-NID) in the months to come.” Shah was speaking at an orientation seminar on the Role of Media on Polio Immunization jointly organised by CHD, World Health Organisation (WHO) and Federation of Nepalese Journalist (FNJ).

Sub-NID programme is scheduled for January 23, February 27 and March 26 during which the volunteers and health workers will go to each house and give oral polio vaccine (OPV) to the children of the houses in the 33 districts, including 20 bordering districts identified as the most affected districts, by the Health Ministry.

Four districts of the inner Terai -- Makwanpur, Sindhuli, Surkhet and Udaypur, three districts from the valley -- Bhaktapur, Kathmandu, Patan and six from the eastern and western border Baitadi, Dadeldhura, Darchula, Ilam, Panchthar and Taplejung will participate in Sub-NID. It is estimated that a total of 2.4 million children will be vaccinated during the program. NID was observed on November 21 and December 19, 1999 during which according to the experts, 3.85 million children under the age of five year were immunized. For prevention, two doses of OPV are administered four to six weeks apart regardless of their previous immunization status.

Medical officer for immunization and polio eradication at WHO Dr Jean Smith said that the World Health Assembly in 1988 had made a declaration to eradicate polio by 2000 from the face of earth. “There were 35,000 polio cases worldwide in 1988 which has now reached to 3,500 cases,” said Smith. “However, 80 percent of the cases are present in the Indian sub-continent.”  Smith stressed that the media should play a vital role in creating awareness and reaching out to the community. 

State Minister for Information and Communication Govinda Bahadur Shah said people should be aware of eradicating various diseases by eating nutritious foods rather than relying on donors to contribute for the eradication of diseases. 

“Why do we rely on donors even for Vitamin A doses, when this is easily available in the fruits and vegetables that we grow here in our own villages,” said Shah.

FNJ also called on journalists to make personal efforts in supporting immunization by spreading necessary news and campaigning material to every social group and to report about the disease through the media. Referring to the role journalists can play at the local level, a call was made for to arrange for the publication of selected materials which spread awareness about immunization.

Maoist leader released 

-By Gunaraj Luitel 

KATHMANDU, Jan 9 - Dev Gurung, a national level Maoist leader was released on Thursday after three and half years of imprisonment.

Gurung, 40 was probably the seniormost Maoist leader in jail. Sources say, he was one of the senior intellectuals of the underground Nepal Communist Party (Maoist). Leaders of the party, Prachanda and Dr Baburam Bhattarai had been constantly demanding for Gurung’s release for the past three and half years.

Observers feel that the step is an initiation by the government to create an atmosphere of dialogue with the Maoists. However, both the government and Maoists have not expressed their comments on that.

“His release is in accordance with the law,” said Padam Prasad Pokharel, secretary at Home Ministry. “He was released on bail.”

On inquiry whether the release would lead to a dialogue between the Maoists and government, in a terse reply Pokharel said, “no talks have been initiated.”

Some believe that the government decided to release Gurung after the Maoists released DSP Thule Rai and to initiate dialogue by the six-member committee formed under the former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba.

“Gurung’s release might have been a gesture after the release of Thule Rai,” said Shakti Lamsal, advisor of Janasatta, a pro-Maoist weekly. “Gurung can choose to go or not to go for dialogue. Nothing can be said about that, I think he has to decide on that.”

 Lamsal said that he was also “shocked” by the unexpected release of Gurung. “He has just been released, it will take some time till everything is understood.”

The government has been requesting human rights organisations to initiate talks with the Maoist insurgents. According to a rights organisation, the organisation has been asked by Deuba’s committee to initiate talks with the Maoists. The organisation also claims that the release is a step to create an atmosphere for a dialogue.