New directions in air safety

By Ganga B Shrestha

Over the years, the aircraft accident rate has come down and today stands at the very low level of about 1.5 accidents per million departures world wide. Although very low, in recent years it has more or less plateaued at a virtually constant level and is no longer continuing to decline. On the other hand traffic is rising and is anticipated to double or even treble in the next 12-15 years. Consequently unless we can make significant reductions in the accident rate, we are going to see a significant increase in the actual number of accidents. The often quoted "one major accident a week somewhere in the world" is certainly a very real possibility.

Four fundamental areas to address the problem:

The aircraft
To address the overall problem, there are four fundamental areas where efforts can be aimed. These are the aircraft, the system, the facilities and the operator. Let us take a look at the airplane first. Airplanes are fundamentally safe and, with each successive generation, they become safer. Second generation aircrafts have a significantly better record than first generation aircrafts, and the third generation - those currently being built - has a better record still. Since we do not anticipate any radically new types of aircraft in the near future and existing aircraft type will be in service for a long time to come. Specialized equipment designed to address specific hazards continues to be developed and incremental safety improvements will be possible through the installation of equipment in new aircrafts, or by retrofitting it, where possible, in existing fleet aircrafts. However, it is highly unlikely that there will be any quantum leap in aviation safety coming from the aircraft improvements alone.

The system
Let us know turn our attention to what we can do about the aviation system itself. It is apparent that most aviation safety problems today lie with underdeveloped countries where, regrettably, the system is not always what it should be. Indeed, many countries, particularly in South America, Africa and South Asia, do not have the infrastructure or capability for appropriate oversight of air transport. In some cases they lack the applicable law to cover aviation or the safety itself. Rules and regulations might exist but the regulatory authority may have only limited oversight or capability to ensure that its operators reconfirming to the minimum ICAO standards and its obligations under the Chicago Convention. Statistics are not collected or properly analyzed and lessons learned are not implemented.

The facilities
We can also improve the facilities. As we have seen, the industry’s major hazards, approach and landing, and CFIT, are even more critical in the third world. Limited air traffic control and radar coverage, efficient or non-existent navigation and airport landing aids all add to the problem. Ways in which we can improve the facilities include improving air traffic control to help navigation and separation, installation of minimum safe altitude warning systems, upgraded and improved runway signals and lighting, improved language training etc.

The operator
Now let us talk about the area that is always closest to the accident - the improvements that we can make at the operating level. Historically we have achieved a significant reduction in the overall accident rate by being reactive. We have examined the wreckage, analyzed the flight data recorder, the black box, examined witnesses and survivors. By all this means we have found the cause of the accident, moved to fix the problem to ensure that it does not happen again. While this has served us very well in the past, it is also the system that continues today. However, it is no longer producing any real reductions in the overall rate. If we are going to obtain significant improvements in the accident rate, in the future, we will have to be pro-active. We will have to look ahead and identify potential accidents so that we can stop them before they happen. A powerful tool available to help us do this is the Digital Flight Data Recorder (DFDR) that is fixed into virtually all commercial aircrafts. Examination of the flight data recorder on a regular basis will show us what is normal and it can detect adverse trends from normal operations that can be corrected before they become a problem.

Continuous analysis of DFDR, combined with confidential reporting and non-punitive reporting systems especially by pilots, can be very effective towards preventing accidents, reducing injuries, saving lives, equipment and costs. If we are going to be able to look ahead and identify accidents before they happen we have to address these concerns. Pilots must be assured of confidentiality and that there will be no punitive action taken against them for reporting inadvertent errors. In the event that an inadvertent error is revealed it is better to know what the mistake is, and correct it, rather than to punish someone for making that mistake. If pilots anticipate that they might be penalized for making a mistake, either one that they have reported or one that is shown on the DFDR, they are unlikely to make any further reports. As a result, we will probably never be aware of it until someone else makes the same mistake and it results in the fatal accident.

Failure to follow operating procedures
There has been many contributory causes of past accidents, some of which occur repeatedly. If one tallies those contributory causes, the one that occurs most frequently is the "flying pilot’s failure to follow standard operating procedures" (SOPs). Training pilots to conform to SOPs, and ensuring that they are rigidly adhered to, is one of the most powerful ways we have of eliminating almost any type of accident and hence of reducing the overall accident rate.

Responsibilities of civil aviation authorities
The regulators and civil aviation authorities must understand that they too can cause latent failures. They have a responsibility to ensure that they are capable of properly performing their responsibilities, at least to the minimum ICAO standards, as well as for proving an adequate infrastructure of airport and navigation facilities.

Air safety in the context of Nepalese civil aviation
The open sky policy adopted by the government of Nepal has created new opportunities for the private Nepalese airlines as well as other international airlines to operate the flights within and outside Nepal. More than 15 international airlines and nearly a dozen domestic carriers operate their flights from Kathmandu airport itself. Approximately 92 flights per week by international airlines and numerous daily flights by domestic carriers make the Kathmandu airspace very crowded in compare to the existing facilities at TIA. On the top of that the Royal Nepalese Army (Air Wing ) also uses the same facilities there.

The domestic carriers using first generation aircrafts, which have become absolute long back, possess a greater risk of midair collisions specially as the skies become more crowded. In the dawning era of larger passenger airliner, the loss of just one of these aircrafts, let alone a mid air collision, would constitute a disaster of unthinkable proportions. A final sobering point to consider is that such a large airline can also easily be brought down through collision with a single engine light aircraft like cessna or pilatus porter.

While looking to the safety record of the Nepalese civil aviation, it is really alarming to see so many accidents incidents that have been occurring frequently. If we have to reduce the overall accident rate, we have make a combined assault on all the fronts as mentioned above.

Turn of political events

The book under review surrounds the Royal Palace which has, in some way or the other, shaped or influenced the country’s policy down the years. And in what may be said to be a considered view of a good student of history, the writer begins by saying that the change of 1951 saw Indian influence on the rise which ended up setting in political instability.

The mess has been attributed to conservatism in Rana representatives and inherent commitment in the Nepali Congress to belittle Ranas through post-1951 period.

This culminated in number of governments and subsequent royal takeovers of 1960 since, King Mahendra, who was least deterred by authority (and did not look into democracy as worth the while from the very beginning) had succeeded King Tribhuvan. So deep were the reservations that King Mahendra was reluctant to see B P Koirala as prime minister post-poll in 1959 (I hope you know why).

Even India was against his appointment and had suggested Subarna Shumsher as the prime minister, a move which was thwarted by Koirala sending an emissary to Nehru as part of an appeasement move.

However, Koirala’s innings as prime minister has been rightly depicted as akin to playing cricket on an inhospitable turf since the political parties in the field cared little for the rules of the game. Fringe parties with no standings (were they egged on?) were the one who raised hell under the banner of National Democratic Front.

The rest of course is history and has been reproduced exactly the way we know it as the turn of events indeed unfolded, although the book is informative in its own way.

Many may, however, still defend King Mahendra as someone who was not a born-autocrat if they chose to believe in what the writer has attributed to His Late Majesty Mahendra which I paraphrase as follows: the parties at the helm through nearly a decade from 1951 tended to serve own political interests even as the governments after governments came and caved in as spectacularly as they came in!

One may very well ask what was the role played by King Mahendra to institutionalize democracy in the sense we understand it to be? The writer has however not passed any judgment on this as may be expected from a history textbook.

The writer says that although the country gained stability (you may not agree with this however) by the stroke coming from King Mahendra, people went on to lose democracy at the end of the day when the Nepali Congress - led government could not face the onslaught launched by plethora of groups and also the NDF.

Moreover, King Mahendra considered B P Koirala as a threat to monarchy and hence was ever on the look out to belittle the popularly elected government in general and B P Koirala in particular. This boiled over as open confrontation since King Mahendra was by now behaving as a real executive ruler and had gone on to sympathize with the opposition cause to the detriment of the parliamentary democracy as such.

What follows next is the effort on the part of the opposition to be nearer the sun and effort on the part of King Mahendra at consolidating the grip on power. These steps include reorganizing the administrative machinery, initiation of repressive measures and clamping down on free press even as customary world reaction poured to no appreciable effect until 1990. Next step was harping on nationalism which is the only weapon against opposition, one may say.

Soon the relations with India soured and King Mahendra learned to play China Card. Then came the Panchayat rule and the constitution which was being presented as the only country-specific system even as foreign aid dwindled. King, however, hired writers to write favourably but to little avail even as signing a secret treaty with India proved undoing.

King Mahendra was succeeded by King Birendra who too toed a hard-line policy in the beginning. But, as it turned out, everything surrounding the affairs of the state including the economic development went astray with rising corruption involving the Palace or sections of it.

The trend was on the rise post-referendum even as the Palace became more desperate while the opposition became more ambitious and hopeful of a possible change in the offing before we come around to the movement for the restoration of democracy in 1990.

In the concluding section, the book gives information about how the Palace is organized from the viewpoint of day-to-day functioning, its organogram, even as it carries an impression of King Mahendra’s horoscope, if you are an astrology geek.

Reviewed by
D L Bhandari

An economist’s passion for art

The ‘Other Self Inside Me’, demonstrates a poetic ‘self’ of Badri Pokhrel, who holds a Ph D in economics. Dr Pokhrel begins his errand with a prayer to lord Ganesh, who is worshipped in the outset of all religious events with a belief that he holds the power to fight any impending danger and disturbances. In a way, the product has been a devotion to Ganesh, and as he has prayed, it has come to a meaningful end.

The book compiles 42 poems, all written in strict classical metres. Romantic expressions in a classical format are quite pleasant readings if one has basic exposure to classical style. In that account, as one flips through, Lekh Nath Poudel, the laureate of poets, one comes into frequent reminiscence. This compilation, thus, challenges a notion that writing poems in a classical style is a fashion outdated, and that it limits one’s spontaneity. Unlike the many fledgling poets, who are pleased to be called ‘modern creators’ in their failure to make a direct expression, Dr Pokhrel succinctly speaks his point. He is thus, not a poet-by-default.

Things are not confined to a certain category in terms of subject matter and the way of expression. A wide variety of themes introduce a blend of idealism, patriotism, romanticism as well as a sense of civic duty, each of which the poet holds very dear. Even beyond, he has chosen a couple of themes to address the political tug-of-war, which is played time and again to the discredit of the nation. ‘What a Chair Says’ (kursi ke bhanchha) speaks out pending irregularities, misconceptions and practices when it comes to the accession to a job (kursi) as well as dismissal from it. In ‘A farmer’ (kisan), the poet calls for a policy that conforms to practice. ‘Humanity emanates from a pure heart, not from a book’ his farmer puts forth. In the ‘True Nation’ (...tyo rastra po rastra ho) the poet is not comfortable to see the wealth centralised in a few hands and the rest forced to stay hungry. ‘It is the true nation where equity prevails, and where humanism is expressed as a religion’, the poet is of the opinion.

Politics is a profit-business, water politics is more so, in our experience. The Tanakpur issue and the Melamchi issue, to cite a few representative ones, have affected everyone. The poet too is worried about it. The rivers would be a source of wealth for us’ however it has been painful to see ‘the leaders engaged in water-politics,’ he says in ‘Water’ (pani). The writer is in quite a fix. On one hand, the people are not well informed, their leaders, on the other hand, are not conscious about any profit for the nation and the people. Look at the following lines:

‘ke gardama pratiphala badhi paune ho naheri
neta tyasta abujha janata bolnu komathi heri
garchan neta sahaja sangale paniko rajaniti
sadhin bagne jala laharaka shrotalai sangeti’

(The leaders are just engaged in the politics of water without any calculation of how the sources of the flowing rivers could be utilised profitably. The people are uneducated, what a fix).

Senior literature Ghataraj Bhattarai truly comments on the work of Dr Pokhrel. ‘Somewhere, the lines of poems express philosophic views and somewhere present national issues in an artistic fashion. In some cases the nature is picturised, while in others a voice of patriotism is raised.’

An economist’s passion for art is admirable. As far as it is approached without any pre-set mind, and definitely with basic exposure to classical literature, the work certainly stands to be a fine art. However, it is not to deny that reciting a poem, with, in some cases, unrelated stanzas is a bit tasteless.

Reviewed by
Mukunda Raj Kattel

Climate change scenario of Nepal : Links to global climate

By Dr Arun B Shrestha

Planet Earth has undergone dramatic climatic ups and downs in its history. These swings in climate have occurred in centennial, millennial, and multi-millennial time scales. Our present climatic condition is benign compared to those in the past, when in some epochs the vast ice sheets, those are present today, were confined to the poles while they reached mid-latitudes in others.

Nevertheless, several direct and indirect observations indicate general increase in air temperature since 1870. Scientists are in general consensus regarding the alarming rate of global temperature increase since the mid 1970. Their research reveal that warming synonymous to the contemporary increase in temperature occurred last time about 130 thousands year ago. It has to be stressed that, climatic fluctuations before the industrial era was purely due to natural causes, whereas in recent past human beings have significantly altered the environment around them and may have caused unprecedented change in the environment. This in turn has affected the climate and the recent global warming could be its manifestation. Archeological evidences suggest that some highly developed civilizations such as the Mesopotamian lost their identity from the face of Earth due to rapid change in the climate. Could we all face the same fate as the Mesopotamian’s due to the much-discussed current global climate change?

In contrast to the term "global warming", the brunt is not borne equally over the whole globe. There are some "hot spots" most likely to be more affected by climatic changes. Large ice sheets come first in this list, while high elevation mountainous environments are also very sensitive to climatic fluctuation. Living in the highest place of the world, monitoring the contemporary climatic condition is a matter of great concern to us, as this might adversely affect our surrounding and our livelihood.

Although climatic monitoring in Nepal in terms of keeping records of temperature and other meteorological parameters does not date back more than three to four decades, analysis of available data reveal some striking details of climatic changes in the Himalayas and its vicinity. Temperatures have been increasing in an alarmingly high rate in Nepal. The increasing trends are as high as 0.1 degree Celsius per year in some parts of the country. Figures show that the warming is much more in high elevation areas such as Trans-Himalaya, Himalaya and Middle-Mountains compared to low elevation areas such as Siwalik and Terai suggesting that the livelihood of mountain societies are more vulnerable to climatic changes. In contrast, Terai and Siwalik show low warming or constant temperature trends. It is however, misleading to assume that the lowland people are unaffected by the warming in the highland areas. One important element of warming in the high elevation is fast melting and retreat of glaciers that feed many important rivers of Nepal. Such high rate of melting will initially cause increase in the flow of these rivers, but ultimately lead to catastrophic decrease in the lean period flow, which will in turn affect people, locations and infrastructures directly or indirectly related to the water resources. Fast retreat of glaciers will result in the formation of glacier lakes such as Tsho Rolpa and Imja, vulnerable to outbreaks, causing devastating floods on the downstream riparian locations.

The observed warming trends in Nepal are likely related to global scale climatic changes. Smoothed temperature record from Kathmandu that dates back to 1920, shows striking similarity with the smoothed zonal average temperature of a band of area encompassed by latitudes 240 and 400 North, viz, the generally cooling trend after 1940’s and fast warming after the mid-1970’s. Similar general trends in temperature is present in records from the Tibetan Plateau, while lacking in records from India. This supports that the highlands of South Asia behave differently and is more sensitive to climatic forcing compared to the southern lowlands. Apart from temperature, precipitation climatology of Nepal is also closely related to large-scale global climate. While no temporal trends are detected, oscillatory characteristics in precipitation records from Nepal are similar to those found in some well-known large-scale climatological phenomena, I e sunspot cycle, EI Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO), etc. Further, precipitation in Nepal is also found to be influenced by large volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo in 1991. The monsoon was largely suppressed in the year following the eruption of Mt Pintubo. Lead and lag analysis between precipitation in Nepal and ENSO reveal leading role of the former suggesting that while many climatological phenomena influence climate in Nepal, the later is also influencing climate of other regions of the world. In other words, climatological phenomena in different locations in the world are remotely teleconnected.

In conclusion, it is time to realize that one’s deed might be inflicting great harm on environment and lives of people halfway across the globe. Some people and their habitat are more vulnerable to climatic changes. Global changes research and its mitigation activities is a matter of global concern. But we, as an individual, must consider what we can reasonably do to influence or ameliorate global environmental change for the benefit of humans as dwellers and care takers of Earth, and how we can live with what we cannot change.