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Kathmandu Thursday November 30, 2000 Mangshir 15, 2057.
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What to
expect ?
The tenth round of Nepal-Bhutan bilateral talks
on the long-drawn out refugee problem will, according to the Foreign Minister, be held in
the third week of December. This is the second time within a year that Nepali leaders are
meeting Druk representatives to resolve the decade-old refugee problem. It is, however,
too early to predict whether the forthcoming round will bring substantial result on the
refugee verification process. The prospects at this stage seem to be bleak. The Bhutanese
proposal of refugee "categorization", which Nepal had unwisely agreed to, has
proved to be a stumbling block. At this pace, the actual repatriation of refugees seems to
be ages away. Although Bhutan itself had initially proposed the verification of refugees
before their return home, this has little to do with the delaying and time buying tactics
adopted by the Druk regime. The hope in Thimpu must be that with the passage of time the
refugees will be assimilated with the local population and they will not be bothered with
the problem any more.
The Druk regime is seeking to deliberately
overlook the refugee problem, in effect telling everyone that the people in refugee camps
in east Nepal are not Bhutanese at all but "illegal immigrants". But facts speak
a different language and that is why the Druk regime has been fighting shy of agreeing to
the Nepalese proposal for verification of refugees. Perhaps, if the government had taken
more radical measures to pressurize Thimpu to see reason, the Foreign Minister, who made
the Druk letter on the forthcoming bilateral talks public the other day, would not have
been as "pessimistic" on the possible outcome of the tenth meeting. This, in
other words, indicates that there has to be a rethink, if not a backtracking from the
process in which both the Nepalese people and the government have lost their confidence.
In a nutshell, this means that whatever the outcome of the tenth round, the process of
verification leading to repatriation will continue to be bleak. The fact that years of
bilateral dialogue have not yielded any result is due in no small measure to India’s
reluctance to own up its responsibility in the whole affair as the refugees entered Nepal
through India and hence India is more than responsible to see to it that the problem is
resolved. India’s refusal to play its part and its policy of letting the matter drag
on has landed Nepal in a fix. Things can only grow worse with the UNHCR now saying that
its contributions to the upkeep of the refugees will decline next year. Nepal will either
have to forcibly evict refugees or find other ways to feed them.
The present obstacle is the verification
process. Nepal, backed by international agencies, has opted for verification based on each
family while Bhutan continues to insist on verification on individual basis. The twain
might never meet if there is no flexibility on the part of Bhutan. Nepal made a major
concession by agreeing to verification in the first place, something that was unwise and
not really helpful to the cause. Reports of refugees assimilating in our society,
deserting camps and the subsequent reduction of international assistance stand as sad
reminders of our sorry plight for which we have none but our government to thank. The
reason why the government has failed to repatriate refugees is becoming clearer with each
passing day.
While talks must be held, we really cannot be
very optimistic about its outcome. First, the involvement of India which has the all
embracing treaty of 1949 with Bhutan is necessary. Second, the almost feudalistic regime
in Thimpu must keep abreast of times and should learn to tolerate democratic exercises
including calls for greater freedom and human rights. It must not be forgotten that the
Bhutanese were driven out of the Dragon kingdom only when demands for democracy began to
grow. Under the circumstances, it will be futile to expect anything from the 10th round of
Nepal-Bhutan talks.
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