Crumbling morale

Police morale has been one more palpable casualty of the massacre at Naumoole and at Rukumkot, Toli and Dunai before that, quite apart from the precious lives lost. The ranking police officer in the mid-western region conceded as much while inspecting the carnage at Naumoole the other day. This low morale has lately turned into vocal disgruntlement among the ranks in blue. The way things are going, it could have consequences for the crime curve and law and order throughout the country. How will the government marshal its forces if there is another Nepal bandh? On top of everything else, it might find itself being forced by default to invoke an emergency, something it has balked at so far, and rightly so. This grim prospect is suggested by a report of police on the run with the Maoists in hot pursuit. Some thirty-five to forty police posted on a hill top in Gulmi sought refuge at the district police office on Sunday after they ran into several hundred Maoists guerrillas. Even the district police office which they contacted could only tell them to flee and save their skins if they did not stand any chance of going on the offensive. The local CDO has denied that any desertion took place. But it was a clear case of capitulation nevertheless. Since the People’s War started this is the first reported incident of the forces of law and order giving up without firing a shot. While that may have saved lives, one shudders at the thought that a spirit of surrender could become infectious. A similar point was made by CPN-UML leader KP Sharma Oli at a recent public rally. Oli said if the attacks on the police continued, a police revolt could not be ruled out. The police are shouting slogans against the Prime Minister and the Home Minister, he pointed out and asked what if they started defying orders as well.

With the police rank and file taking the brunt of the Maoist onslaught, morale was bound to suffer. The more so as those caught in the firing line are mostly individuals who do not have the connections to avoid postings to exposed and vulnerable locations. Nor is there any end in sight to the People’s War being waged by the Maoists with such a devastating effect. The Maoists are making a show of eagerness to talk but at the same time setting an agenda that they know is not going to be conceded in full, if at all. In the face of the crisis that is upon the nation the politicians cannot bury their differences. The Armed Police Force ordinance has just expired, leaving that force, put together specifically with the Maoists in mind, in legal limbo. Even if it is re-promulgated or alternative arrangements are made for the force under the existing Police Act, it will be a while before such a force is fully deployed and blooded in. In the meantime, a couple more Naumooles and Rukumkots and the thin blue line could effectively crumble. This is a contingency that our leaders should have foreseen.

Water, wealth and Nepal

By Surya Nath Bastola

Water is an important resource for Nepal as it offers a possibility of developing 25,000 MW of hydro-electricity economically out of a total potentiality of 83,000 MW. Vast areas of land can be irrigated with the yearly average run off of all the rivers which is about 200 billion cu. mts. Besides, water can be utilized for industry, drinking, navigation and recreation.

Nepal has three main river systems with the Mahakali as a border river with India, the Koshi in the East, Gandaki in the middle and Karnali in the west. These river systems have been studied and big and small projects that can be developed in the respective basins identified. Approximately 70 percent of the surface water resources of Nepal is accounted for by three big river systems and about 25 percent by medium and small river systems and rivulets. All these total around 6,000 in number. Systematic study of their various uses and establishment of an order of priority in such use is defined in our water laws and by-laws which regulate the development of the resource which, if rightly applied, will be very beneficial to the country’s economy. If we make mistakes in utilising this resource, it can amount to a lost opportunity for the country. Water allocation for different uses should always be guided by efficient utilisation of the resource. The basic approach in the formulation of a water resources development policy is to match supply and demand. Water planning can be sound when crucial data on water in terms of location, quality and quantity is accurate. The need for coordination in formulation of a national water policy and for national management by different agencies of the government is a must for achieving the best results. A long term perspective plan (20 years) is a must for the best utilisation of this precious resource.

There are two distinct aspects in utilising the water resources of this country. One is that water is required for internal consumption and use and the other is export to other countries, mostly to our neighbour India.. Nepal is a landlocked country. Hence there is a dire need of navigational ways and outlets to the sea. Nepal has more than enough water in her rivers for irrigation and power generation purposes. India needs regulated water flow for its existing canals, cheap hydropower and regulated water flow for flood control and drought mitigation. Bangladesh suffers heavily due to high floods but is short of water during lean periods which gives rise to salinity problems. Hence there is a lot of scope for Nepal and India to forge cooperation in water resources development. Trickle down effects could be to the benefit of Bangladesh. India has helped Nepal in constructing the Trishuli-Devighat Hydel Projects. Treaties have been signed for developing the Koshi Barrage Scheme and Gandak projects. There have also been some revisions in these treaties as Nepal felt that enough benefits did not accrue out of these ventures. Similarly Nepal and India have signed a treaty concerning the integrated development of the Mahakali river including Sharada Barrage, the Tanakpur Barrage and Pancheswar Project, which have established certain principles for water sharing, cost-benefit sharing and sale of excess electric power to India. Even the Mahakali treaty between Nepal and India has come under controversy. Had the detailed project report been finalised before the agreement was signed each party would have been clear about the cost-benefit accruing to each. But the detail project report is being finalised after the treaty. So there seems to be some differences of opinion over agreeing to the details of the projects.

This, however can be overcome through negotiation and benefit to both countries if both the countries are guided by basic needs and interests in keeping with international norms and practice as defined by the Helsinki Rules, the Harmon doctrine, etc. and practices followed in other such treaties in other countries. It is expected that the compulsions of this region, low standard of living of the people, ecological degradation and lack of freedom from national calamities and disasters, will prompt governments in this region to rack their brains for bringing about such ventures in water resources.

Nepal has to earn enough for its development by selling cheap electric power that can be generated from the flowing water. It should derive benefit by allowing the regulated water to flow through its rivers. Equally it should develop such projects for internal consumption. That will have the effect of providing cheap electricity to the consumers along with irrigation, navigation and other water uses. Currently Nepal has about 360 MW of hydropower installed capacity. One million hectares is irrigated, about 40 percent of the population has access to safe drinking water and navigation is at the stage of preliminary studies.

Big possibility: For fulfilling its needs for electricity Nepal should have mini-micro plants in areas isolated from grid areas and medium size projects scattered in different areas to feed the east-west transmission grids. Bigger sized projects should be developed for export purposes. Rural electrification should be emphasised. We must explore the possibility of large scale development of Electric Traction east-west and north-south when developing the bigger hydro projects. Nepal should be able to create an atmosphere whereby big investment in water resources development can flow into this country so that metallurgical industries and electric traction can develop in the long run.

Cultural disaster

By Giridhari Shah

Disasters of one type or other do occur intermitantly. Disasters are of two types: natural and man made. Natural disaster is beyond the control of people whereas man made disasters can be checked in the embryo.

Some countries are prone to natural disasters like flood, earthquake and cyclones. The Gujarat earthquake in India claimed 30,000 human lives on January 26 this year. Havoc due to flood caused by the Bagmati river in Rautahat and Sarlahi districts in 1994 took many human lives and many lost property worth millions of rupees. Similarly, cyclones in the Bay of Bengal rendered thousands of people homeless in Orissa a few years ago. These are natural, hence inevitable. Chernobyl was a man made disaster. World War One and Two were the most deadly man made disasters of the last century.

Recently the Taliban in Afghanistan demolished all the monuments of religions other than Islam. This included destruction of two monuments of Lord Buddha situated in Bamiyan province. These two statues of Lord Buddha were 53 m and 34 m high respectively. They are known to have been constructed as early as the 5th century AD and are taken to be the tallest statues of Lord Buddha in the world. The people of Afghanistan had followed Buddhism until the ninth century and monuments to Lord Buddha were built during that time. UNESCO, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal, India and several other countries of the world told the Taliban regime not to destroy the monuments which were very significant for world heritage. Yet, they did not pay an iota of heed to the request of other countries. The Taliban demolished the monuments. Social scientists all over the world were of the opinion that countries which follow Buddhism will destroy Muslim monuments in their own countries as a retaliation for demolition of the monuments of Buddhism in Afghanistan. This would spark off a cultural disaster in the world. But this did not happen.

Because the central idea of every religion is one. That is, no religion orders one to suppress other religions. No religion advocates hypocrisy. No religion preaches us to hate. Every religion preaches us to respect and live in harmony. They why did the Taliban resort to suppressing the feelings and faith of world brethren who have faith in Buddhism?

Nepal is a peace loving country where people of all faiths and religions live in harmony. We Nepalese should be proud of the Buddha’s teachings, because they are even today very relevant and followed by a majority of the people of the world. The Taliban have hurt the sentiments of Buddhists but we should not hurt them. This is how we should respect and love other religions as well.

An antagonistic relationship

By Basanta Lohani

Nature seeks balance but we constantly tip this balance because of our greed. The result is of ten-times the unleashing of Nature’s wild fury in the form of floods, landslides, earthquakes, glacier bursts, or cyclones. Be it in the United States or in China, in India or in Japan or anywhere, any antagonistic relationship that we adopt with Nature in the name of development and modernity causes environmental degradation and unbearable human pain. We never stop from talking about developing great visions for humankind that extend much beyond the present but when it comes to fulfilling our greed, we forget all our pious intentions and indulge passionately in behaving with monstrous short-sightedness to such an extent that the dialogue for human betterment becomes a mere farce. Nature never discriminates. In our relation with her we gain or lose collectively. As it appears, we are losing, and the loss translates into a major disaster when it relates to global warming. Let us take a look.

The earth remains warm because of the heat that the sun radiates continuously. The earth’s atmosphere is made of various gases, mainly nitrogen and oxygen, with an insignificantly small portion of carbon dioxide (0.03%) as well. Because of the earth’s gravitational pull, these gases cannot run away, and form a transparent layer through which the sun’s rays come inside. Much of the solar radiation gets emitted back to space, but the way Nature has it, carbon dioxide reflects much of the heat back but traps a little bit of it so that the earth becomes warm enough to sustain life. This is called the greenhouse effect. And, it is perfect.

But what is a matter of great anxiety is the fact that the intensity of this warming is increasing. As a result, the world is getting warmer. One way to look at it could be to raise a question. Could it be increasing because the heat that the sun is radiating per unit of time has increased? Scientists say no. So this rise is man-made. Industries, automobiles, aviation and our use of utilities release a great amount of carbon dioxide and a few other gases known as the greenhouse gases and this has become a matter of major concern. Now if it is allowed to continue at the present rate, world climate would change as a result of the rise in the world temperature by 1.5 C to 4.5 C over the next 100 years. What follows then would be crop damage, rising sea level and flooding affecting millions of people and their property. This concerns all countries and all people. In a situation like this, could there be any country that could remain totally unaffected as an island of prosperity? To think so will be an instance of human stupidity of the first order.

The responsibility for this impending global warming falls much more on the developed countries than on the countries of the third world. However, the West is aware of this hazard, and this awareness brought them together at a meeting in New York on 9 May 1992 to adopt the ‘United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.’ President Bush’s father signed it expressing full American commitment to combat global warming.

But the Clinton administration, after three months of assuming power, changed the American position and soft peddled this major international concern. Thus, the threat of global warming was approached with ritualistic overtones alternating with seriousness of purpose till 11 December 1997 when the 8639 worded ‘Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change’ was adopted at Japan’s religious city Kyoto. After dilly-dallying for all these years and taking over hundred countries for a ride, this time it became the turn of President Bush to abandon it by deciding not to sign the treaty.

The United States ranks first in carbon dioxide equivalent emission of greenhouse gases and accounts for around 40 percent of the developed world’s share for global warming.

The 15 member European Community (EU) has already shown its anger over the betrayal. Last week in Stockholm, the EU expressed its determination to go ahead even without the United States as it said, "Climate change is happening now and is a serious threat to the future of mankind. We are prepared if necessary to go forward without the US" They are resolute not to let this world initiative die just because the United Sates has pulled back. The Kyoto Protocol to become legally binding needs to be ratified by 55 signatory countries which include the US. US emission rate needs to be reduced to around 5 percent below its 1990 levels by 2012.

What prompted President Bush to abandon a major initiative addressing a global issue is as simple as his desire to protect the interest of big business in the United States at the cost of not just ordinary American people but of mankind as a whole. It was a masterpiece of insensitivity on his part to say: "I will not let greenhouse gas reduction harm the economy and jobs of the United States," as if the US were not a part of this planet called earth. A recent UN study concludes that the world will have to bear the cost of US $300 billion a year because of global warming. And, the US too will have to shell out its part by way of extreme weather events if immediate efforts are not made to control greenhouse gases. As it is, experts believe that billions of dollars are spent in the US for repairs at homes and industries because of weather related events.

Many consider this decision as an oilman‘s narrow approach towards American economics because of the partisan interest in protecting the energy industries that funded the election campaign. Bush is believed to favour the wealthiest at the cost of the poorest. As a Texas Governor, he tried to reduce tax on profit for the rich and thrust the increased burden of sales tax on the ordinary people. The latest case is no different. The way reports are coming, the proposed 40 percent tax cut basically aims at augmenting the interest of the 1 percent richest Americans as opposed to the rest. This is so because the dispersion of tax cut benefit is highly skewed. Besides, this would mean less money for public interest priorities. Now the senate has scaled it down. A little earlier, a reputed MIT professor of international economics, Dr. Paul Krugman, in an op-ed page piece in the The New York Times described it thus: "all I can say is, let them eat cake. And drink arsenic."

But in the case of global warming it belongs to Nature’s domain. It is not just the American people but all of us who will be forced to drink lethal doses of arsenic even without cakes. The economics of reducing greenhouse gases extends far beyond narrow confines. At this point, the Chinese effort in reducing greenhouse gases is encouraging in view of the fact that it ranks second after the US in emitting them. Finally, President Bush’s decision shows to the world that the US has no climate policy at a time when some of the major US companies like United Technologies, IBM, Baxter and Polaroid are themselves all willing to go along the road of controlling the life threatening emission level.

But Nature’s economics is not transferring resources from the poor to the rich presumably in the name of more investment for increasing employment opportunities. Nature makes no difference between the wealthiest few and the poorest many. As Shakespeare wrote so aptly, "What cares these roarers for the name of king?" When Nature’s golden balance is upset, she withers into wild fury. Nature’s devastation knows no geographical boundary. Greed begets an antagonistic relationship where immediate gain boils over with more poisonous gases of destruction. Does President Bush still think that his decision to move out of the Kyoto protocol is in the interest of the American people? Will they be safer sharing the same planet in future with the rest of us who aren’t? This is evident from the way the White House is being continuously "flooded", in what is described as a "Bush Flood", by thousands of e-mails from angry citizens all over the world protesting against his decision to let the world down. The New York Times in its recent editorial puts it thus: "Mr Bush’s retreat on issues as large as global warming and as localized as poisoned drinking water seems aggressively hostile… Mr Bush appears to have forgotten that Republicans inevitably self-destruct when they challenge environmental values that command public support." And what a tragic, no, pathetic fall it will be when all will fall just because a politician failed!