Significant visit

Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh’s visit here beginning today is quite significant in that it comes at a time when relations between the two countries need some mending. The timing of the visit is no less significant with India, according to reports, unilaterally serving notice to Nepal that the trade treaty between the two countries will be terminated instead of being automatically renewed in December. The industry and trade sector in this country will no doubt be hit hard by this Indian move which has come as a surprise since the two sides were to meet again to thrash out differences, if any, over the export of some five particular items from Nepal. That these exports are minuscule in proportion to the total demand of the Indian market needs no reiteration here. But India appears to be bent on imposing its own version of "surge" which Nepal and the Nepalese business community can hardly go along with.

But trade treaty is just one of the many issues that demand the immediate attention of both the Nepalese and Indian governments. The question of review and revision of the 1950 treaty between the two countries has been in cold storage for a long time. Leaders in both countries seem to be merely pacifying the Nepalese people who have been demanding revision from time to time, the latest instance being during the official visit to India of then Prime Minister GP Koirala. The foreign secretaries of the two countries entrusted with the task of studying and suggesting a possible revision have, as was long expected, failed to deliver. Nor will anything concrete come out of joint meetings at the official level since the matter is an entirely political one. Nepal cannot also forget the Kalapani issue, which, if leaders are ever to be believed, was supposed to be solved through the survey department bureaucrats of the two countries sitting together. In addition, there is the question of regulation of the Nepal-India border which remains unresolved. In fact, it is worth mentioning that once this border is regulated, the citizenship issue that has been plaguing successive governments in Nepal will become easier to solve. There is also the problem of over one hundred thousand Bhutanese refugees who are languishing in camps in eastern Nepal. There is a general belief among all sections of the population in Nepal as well as among the refugees themselves that India’s good offices in this regard can go a long way in expediting a solution to the problem and bringing about their return home in dignity.

More recently, the dams and embankments built in India near the Nepal-India border have caused no end of worry in Nepal. The latest one coming up near Lumbini has given rise to fears that the birthplace of Lord Buddha could become submerged during the rainy season. While some Indian officials like to dismiss these as "local" issues, they have a direct bearing on the whole nation and cause needless friction between the two countries. Though the coming of Jaswant Singh, who doubles as defence minister, is being billed as a "goodwill visit", it is in the interest of both countries to take up and address these problems and issues that frequently bedevil relations between the friendly neighbouring countries. We are confident that Mr Singh’s visit will help India realise how important it is to understand Nepal’s sensitivities. For this and for the fact that it will provide him with an opportunity to get to know at first hand the new Nepalese leadership, the visit should be termed an important one.

Questions on Maoist stand to dialogue

By Dr Shreedhar Gautam

It is true that barring the views of some fringe elements, there is unanimity in this country on the imperative need to bring Maoists to the table of talk. Dr Babu Ram Bhattarai’s article published in Kantipur on August 3 makes it crystal clear that the Maoists themselves are very much keen to enter into a dialogue hoping it would lead to a positive resolution of the present political crisis. The dialogue in the backdrop of mutual ceasefire after the election of Deuba as the new Prime Minister assumes special significance because the Maoists had initiated armed struggle six years ago rejecting the path of people’s struggle as an ineffective means to bring about desired change. They have been criticising other left parties terming them revisionists, reformists and champions of parliamentary system to prove their point that only through armed struggle society can be transformed.

It is true that dialogue in itself is not a bad thing and any political party whether revolutionary or liberal can make best use of it depending on the prevailing situation. In the history of communist movement too, there are examples in other countries where communists have resorted to dialogue for different reasons. But the statement issued by party President Prachanda gives an impression that they are no more interested in one party rule, and drastic reformation of society can be achieved through healthy competition among the political parties having their own distinctive agenda and ideology. His statement published in a weekly Budhabar on August 1 urges the people not to misunderstand them for their slogans of interim government and republic as they would give equal opportunity for other parties to play their respective role even after their coming to power.

It is interesting to note here that Pradip Nepal, leader of CPN-UML, sees no basic difference in the philosophy of Madan Bhandari and Puspa Kamal Dahal. In the same weekly Budhbar he terms it as an ironical coincidence that just after the 10 years of Madan Bhandari’s declaration of multiparty competitive political system, Puspa Kamal is trying hard to assure the people that their people’s democracy is fundamentally pluralistic in nature, and not the proletarian dictatorship as propounded by Marx and Angels.

In China after the revolution of 1949, the party leader Mao did not declare the victory of people and the collapse of feudal system. His much talked about remark "bombard the party head headquarters" gave an ample proof that the struggle between two class was still going on and it was uncertain whether socialism would win the final war. As apprehended by Mao, soon after his death, socialism suffered heavy setback and capitalistic provisions were introduced. If Mao failed to transform the society even after the revolution led by a communist party, in our country Maoist leadership hopes to achieve the goal of interim government, constituent assembly, and finally the people’s government through dialogue and participation in competitive parliamentary elections.

Now Dr Bhattarai has raised issue of nationality and republic as the minimum meeting ground for national consensus. In any political dialogue between two groups, both sides will try to exert maximum gain on the basis of their respective strength of bargaining. If Maoists think they are in stronger position, the logic says that they should not have become so much restive for talks simply after the replacement of Girija Prasad Koirala by Sher Bahadur Deuba. If they are in a hurry for talk sensing danger for them, how can they expect to fulfil the demand of interim government and constituent assembly, a prelude for republic?

Different political groups are encouraging for talks with their own different agenda and interest. Very recently Surya Bahadur Thapa, leader of RPP, issued a statement asking the government not to enter into talk with Maoists without certain pre-conditions. The Prime Minister himself has declared openly the Maoists should not raise the question of republic, constitutional monarchy and multi party system. If these issues are not subject to discussion, certainly the Maoists will get very little. Moreover, it is politically naive and immature even to think that the Deuba government could relent to concede the demand of constituent assembly and interim government at this juncture when his own position is not very safe due to the wrangling in his own party.

Maoist leaders have said time and again that days of traditional monarchy are already over and dawn of republic is an imminent reality, but the existing situation does not justify their analysis. The army is fully loyal to the new king and there is no any sign of realignment of social forces in the aftermath of the Narayanhity massacre. And as long as traditional social forces are intact, social transformation is beyond imagination. The deeply entrenched elites and traditional forces of this country, which overwhelmingly dominate the civilian and military bureaucracy, will resist fully to any attempt of either giving greater role to Maoists or for that matter to any question that will lead to the realisation of republic.

In the light of prevailing confusion and scepticism regarding the policies of the Maoists, it becomes incumbent for the top leaders of the Maoists to clarify their stance to the proposed dialogue. Moreover, they should be more circumspect and less ambiguous while issuing contradictory statements on the question of policies and ideology. They can no more sell simultaneously the slogans of multi party competition and proletarian dictatorship. They should no more keep the poor people in illusion of the proletarian rule by advancing their hands of friendship with all political groups irrespective of their past records and the present ideology.

Maoist leaders should make their stand transparent before sitting for dialogue with the government. If they have changed the path of armed struggle, they should make sincere introspection and tell the people honestly in plain words. If they think that their ultimate goal is to establish proletarian dictatorship, they should not feel shy of saying so openly. They should not confuse the people by arguing that through dialogue too, society can be transformed. As mentioned by Pradeep Nepal, they should provide an evidence of substantial difference between Madan Bhandari’s multi party democracy and their own democracy.

Equally important for them is to clarify their attitude to other political parties, especially left parties, which are randomly accused of being inimical forces. They should not bracket all the left parties as agents of capitalism and pro-status quo. If they are really serious for the future of country and welfare of people, they should be more realistic in their evaluation of national situation. Moreover, no substantial change can take place without the working unity among the like minded parties. National consensus desire by Maoists can be achieved only through pursuing appropriate policies developing mutual understanding to each others’ feelings and aspirations taking into consideration the supreme goal of national impendence and people prosperity.

Harmony between eyes and mind

By Pradeep Bhandari

One thing I constantly remember from my college days is something that one of my professors used to mention to us every now and then. He used to say, "The eyes cannot see what the mind does not know." Ever since then, I have realised how true and realistic the words are at any given time and situation.

This morning, while reading a news piece on Nepal’s political scenario, that has witnessed 12 prime ministers in 11 years, the above saying once again echoed in my mind. And I started wondering whether all these past and present leaders are capable of leading the country! Do they have any vision for the future? Can they see beyond the scenario observed through their eyes and contemplate ideas that can improvise the pathetic state of affairs in the country? Are they any different from an ordinary person on the street who sees, but does he or she feel the necessity to process the information through his/her brain? Any person taking the huge responsibility of not just managing the country’s affairs but steering the country towards a brighter future should be able to envisage realistic plans and programmes and only then start observing and identifying the core areas for reforms. It should always be a process of ‘mind’ first and the ‘eyes’ later and not the other way round! It is exactly like a surgeon operating upon a patient - when he looks into the wound during the surgery, he only knows what is wrong with the patient and how he is going to rectify the problem if he already knows what pathological conditions could have precipitated the current ill-health.

It is hard to believe that there is a dearth of intelligent and able people in Nepal who can take care of the country properly. But I believe that most such people might be using their skills and abilities to improve their own lives by outsmarting the system rather than wasting their precious time and energy for the sake of the country. It is said that time will bring some changes even if there is no one wanting them. So then, shall we leave our country’s future to its fate? Otherwise, a new generation of leaders who are well educated, intelligent, skilful and UN-SELFISH should come forward to take the reign in their hands. Only then perhaps ‘the eyes will match the mind’.

High fertility and blow to poverty alleviation

By Dr Kanhaiya R B Mathema

Nepal’s population has hit the 23.2 million mark growing at an annual rate of 2.27 percent, according to recent CBS statistics, despite the efforts made by the government and NGOs to check the growth. Over a period of ten years, Nepal’s population increased by more than 5 million. The continuity of this trend will double the country’s population in the next 29 years. The average household size is still above 5, to be exact, 5.38. This is indicative of a large family size, itself very much a cause of poverty.

One of the points to be noted at this juncture is that Nepal’s population is rather young, giving ample opportunity for quite active population momentum. About 41 percent of the total population falls within the age bracket of less than 15 years. A higher proportion of population is visualised in the early age group, both for males and females, in the rural areas. This puts tremendous pressure on the adult or economically active population of 15-59 years of age. In other words, the pressure of dependent population is very high. This requires a greater proportion of national income to be spent on the nonproductive sector, leaving a lesser proportion in the productive sector. This has its adverse effect on income generating activities at the national level. The sufferers are none other than women folks in particular.

Unfortunately, the ongoing political uncertainty has diverted the country’s development efforts towards non-economic fronts. It has dealt a great blow to the pious effort of economic development on the part of the government. In spite of a good many efforts by the government to boost the economy, it is not catching up with the desired level of growth of 6.9 per cent as envisaged by it. Such a situation has left a wide margin between population growth on the one hand and economic growth on the other. This has inevitably made ‘poverty alleviation’ the prime focus of the government and planners in the country.

Poverty is in fact the crux of the problem since hunger, malnourishment, illiteracy, poor health and poor housing revolve round it. Poverty is discerned in the ever increasing population growth,
low productivity, low employment opportunities and technological and administrative inefficiencies.

A very high population growth of 2.27 percent implies that the fertility of people is detrimental to economic interests (in other words, poverty alleviation). Such a situation has pushed Nepal to the margin of the poor in the world with a per capita income of not more than U$ 210 in 2000, according to the Human Development Report, 2001. On the other hand, this very situation has debarred Nepal from achieving its objectives of attaining a higher rate of sustainable economic growth, alleviation of poverty and reducing the regional imbalances. Whatever growth has occurred in the economy has been skewed distribution. This is reflected in the statement of the World Bank report that almost 45 percent of national income was shared by the top 20 percent of the population whereas the lower 19 percent of population received only 19 percent of total national income.

The addition of insult to injury is mostly due to rapid natural growth in population which reduces the rate at which income per head can be raised. This high fertility rate means a higher ratio of dependents to producers both at family and national levels. It can be argued at both levels that reduced fertility permits greater labour force participation by women resulting in better maternal care and hence more productive children, according to J C Caldwell, a world renowned demographer.

Poverty in Nepal is mostly concentrated in the rural areas because of the high fertility of rural women. Existing evidences suggest that children are clearly an economic liability among rural families in most of the LDCs since high fertility is the social norm in the rural sector. This high fertility puts a check on the economic activity rate of the women labour force. The crude activity rate (size of economically active population) of women was just 32.20 in the 1991 census. The activity rate is obviously significant. Meaning thereby, the higher the rate the greater is the level of income per head under given conditions of employment and productivity.

In spite of the successive decline in the TFR from 6.3 in 1981 to 5.3 in 1991 and 4.6 in 2000, it is still higher among SAARC countries except Muslim countries such as the Maldives and Pakistan. One of the reasons for this persistent high fertility may be low contraceptive prevalence rate (23 per cent) among married women of reproductive age. Moreover, low contraceptive prevalence rate is wider in rural areas where a majority of the population still resides, giving rise to high fertility. Such high fertility has perpetuated the vicious circle of poverty in the national economy. This situation necessitates the reduction of fertility by raising awareness of the small family norm, particularly in the rural areas, among women of reproductive age. On the other hand, the low level of literacy among rural women needs to be raised since literacy is one of the most important intermediate variables in the reduction of fertility level. Moreover, the economic activity rate among women needs to be increased so that their fertility level is reduced, and thus by raising their activity rate, their level of income is raised which to a greater extent would help to alleviate poverty among the women.

If this high fertility is not halted, the objective of the forthcoming plan to reduce the population living below the poverty line from 32 percent in the Ninth Plan 23 percent in the Tenth Plan will remain a dream.

(The author is the Reader of Economics at Central Department of Economics, TU)