SAARC for regional peace

By Bishnu Hari Nepal

Immediately after the military take over, Gen Musharraf was in great trouble. Self-understood, anything could happen to dictatorial Pakistan. The Common Wealth had expelled this country from its membership. India, the strongest SAARC member, together with the rest of the international community, was amongst the vehement critics of the expulsion of the elected government of Pakistan. Hence, she never appreciated the idea of a red carpet for Gen. Musharraf at the SAARC Headquarters. As a result, despite Nepal’s full preparations, the Eleventh Summit in Kathmandu in Nov 1999, had to be postponed indefinitely.

Contrary to the strong opposition from the democratic world, Gen. Musharraf was successful to prolong his military power in the name of mitigating corruption and safeguarding the national interest of Pakistan. Capacity building and his experience of tactics, virtually helped his regime achieve recognition from world powers, including the People’s Republic of China (PRC). India, due to her strained relations with Pakistan, during this period, tried her best to defend her national interest very carefully. For both India and Pakistan, the Kargil shock of the immediate past and its aftermath have remained as deep wounds for ever.

In diplomacy, as foreseen, nothing is permanent. Once the strongest opponent India had a red carpet for Gen Musharraf in New Delhi, to hold the historic Agra Summit, between PM Vajpayee and Gen Musharraf. For maintaining protocol prior to his India visit, Gen Musharraf got an opportunity to get himself promoted from CEO to President of Pakistan. Despite the sincere preparations and attempts at negotiation up to the last minute of the Summit, Agra left both the leaders in despair. Even a simple note of the visit or MoU could not be signed. For diplomatic circles it was crystal clear how tense the situation was.

In other words, the dark clouds of war over beautiful Kashmir remained threatening still. Last November, Vajpayee flatly rejected to meet President Musharraf in New York during the UN General Assembly. Since then, only Kathmandu has remained as a ray of hope for talks between the two SAARC giants, during the Eleventh Summit, on 4-6 January, 2002. In this perspective, this Summit has been perceived as the most important one in the history of SAARC, for, India and Pakistan are expected to have separate talks during this occasion. Obviously, this talk is also vital, being the first Summit after Agra and after the rejection of the proposed meeting at New York. In the eyes of Political Scientists, without regional peace and security; so to say, in the present scenario, without improved Indo-Pak relations, SAARC attaches no special significance .This can be learnt from the sixteen year old history of SAARC.

It is because, at a juncture where the two key members of a relatively small regional organisation like SAARC are always at loggerheads, the question arises, after all, what is the function of SAARC with respect to maintaining peace and security in the region in a real sense? Since SAARC does not allow bilateral matters to be raised within its constitutional framework, still, the query arises as to how the leaders utilise this occasion to carry on bilateral matters with a better perspective and in a friendlier environment, outside the official SAARC agenda?

In this regard, the story of two generals, one of them the President of Pakistan and his then counterpart Indian war veteran sitting together in person at a regional function in Colombo, immediately after the Kargil war, had international significance and got wide range of coverage in the print media. Flying back to Pakistan Gen Musharraf achieved power through a military coup, without bloodshed. That time, it was never possible bilaterally, for the two generals, to meet together and sit together without regional arrangements.

The theme here is to analyse the role played by SAARC, direct or indirect, given the psycho-analytical aspect of the decision making processes of the regional nuclear powers. It is crystal clear that this state of mind of the decision makers as a most important component of the process, having influence on creating and maintaining a regional peace and a balance of power system.

Any student of diplomacy is aware of the fact that post-colonial South Asia has always remained unstable and insecure. The Sino-Indian war of 1962 was between the two largest populations of the world. Both the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of India became nuclear powers in 1964 and 1974 respectively. The very year, when Bangladesh was born, in 1971, China entered the UN and attained the prestigious position of Permanent Member of the Security Council. These developments were aiding South Asia maintain a regional balance of power of course, without any integrated regional diplomatic arrangement.

In the mid-seventies, for instance, India seemed more engaged in her internal politics, even imposing emergency in that country. But, despite her unrest at home, India was able to merge Sikkim into itself in 1975. Understanding such regional scenario, the late King Birendra brought two important proposals to the world on Feb 25,1975 during his Coronation, he proposed that Nepal be declared a Zone of Peace, which received support from 116 countries of the world, except friendly India. Frankly, the Nepalese pro-multiparty leaders might be regretting internally today why they did not give emphasis to this noble notion, during the post-1990 period. If they had done so, perhaps the plight of the country, due to the People’s War, would not be like it is.

Secondly the late King Birendra in 1976, for the first time among South Asian leaders, called for regional cooperation arrangements in South Asia, during the South Asian Consultative Committee Meeting in Nepal. In fact, it took nine years to give official shape to this farsighted notion, and that also, at the active initiative of the then Bangladeshi President who announced SAARC with its seven members in Dhaka, on Dec 8, 1985.

Its headquarters being located in Kathmandu exemplifies Nepal’s contribution and active role to establish this regional mechanism for regional peace and cooperation. This also gives encouragement to the idea that even smaller countries deserve a say within SAARC and can play a crucial role for regional peacemaking and peacekeeping. Pragmatically, it deserves more urgency, when two most important members out of seven are, twenty-four-hours close to a stage of war. If we flash back to their peace policies in the region, India has outlined her policy not to be the first country to use nuclear weapons. Similarly, Pakistan has publicly stated that it would not hesitate to defend its people with nuclear weapons, if necessary.

In such a situation, it is difficult to omit the bitter fact that they have fought four wars during the post-1947 period. Among them, the 1971 war was costliest for Pakistan, loosing East Pakistan. On the other hand, it was the greatest achievement for late Indira Gandhi in her political life, being able to create Bangladesh. Thus, the signing of a Security Pact by India with the then USSR, the same year in 1971, was also a clear counter balance for regional security, with special reference to the entry of China into the Security Council. The Security Pact with the USSR also benefited India during the crucial phase ahead, when the US openly offered the late Zia-ul-Huq a four billion US dollar package in the name of the Afghan cause in the early 80’s.

These strategic factors aided the regional need assessments in South Asia and facilitated the establishment of SAARC. Particularly, such a diplomatic environment helped follow the Line of Control, sketched out by the Shimla Agreement, between India and Pakistan, bilaterally, in 1972. All the time, Kashmir dominated Indo-Pak relations, as the core point. In the post-1971 period, more than two and a half decades until Kargil, ‘no major warfare’ took place between these countries. This can be considered as the positive side of the SAARC diplomatic environment, and international scenario, resulting in a comparatively better state of tranquillity and diminished post-war hazards in the entire region.

Today, experts and authorities are talking about the agenda of the Eleventh Summit like a poverty alleviation package, combating terrorism, child trafficking and women’s rights. One should not forget that there were talked about since the inception of SAARC. SAFTA, the SAARC Open University and other socio-economic and ethno-cultural relations also are not new themes. Whatsoever the agenda in different fields on grounds of conflict resolution procedures and strategic capability building, India stands as the epicentre of the SAARC map.

Take the case of the Second Pokharan Nuclear Test conducted by India and its immediate test- response from Pakistan under Nawaz Sharif. It sharply picturises the sensitivity and danger of the situation, not only bilaterally, but also regionally. Equally important, one should not forget the fact that nuclear giant China is a next door neighbour of SAARC. Such threats and counter threats, due to the nuclear race in the region, are carried out in the name of self-defence, connoting Art 51 of the UN Charter.

Not signing of CTBT by the USA, China, India and Pakistan and total negation of the 1972 ABM Treaty by President Bush, both have a direct impact on the SAARC region. This is very crucial for the Indo-Pak border, especially in the post-Afghan War period ahead. Therefore, the Kathmandu Summit coming almost three years late, is a success to some extent, but SAARC members, particularly India and Pakistan, should not forget that SAARC had already passed the anti-drug and anti-terrorist conventions in 1987 and 1988 respectively. SAFTA bears significance only when the members possess homogeneity instead of stratified approaches. History is witnessed that due to clashes of opinions between these two influential members, SAARC has not been able even to define terrorism properly.

To conclude, political scientists can simply wait for a better outcome of the Summit with special reference to the SAARC agenda in general and the Indo-Pak dialogue in particular.

The uncomfy compy world

By Smriti Jaiswal

Computers! The most difficult thing to look at for long. Most people who spend their office hours staring at the ever-ready screen of a comp come home with their worst mood buzzing around them. They are almost as taxing as the machine itself. And it tired me pretty much that day. Honestly, couldn’t bear it and if I had to sit in front of it for another second I would have burst. So I left my friends behind at the office and went for a cup of tea. The problem with the world today is that it has no hassles making you work like a slave but it has an awful lot of hassles if you want a stress reliever. So, as is always the case, the tea shop is a million miles away from the office and I was too tired to walk it that far. Instead, I walked into a residential hotel, hunted out a man who looked tantalizingly like a cook and using all the coquetry I could muster up asked him if he could please please please make me a cup of tea (though I knew this hotel was not open for outsiders).

Coquetry will get you anywhere.

It got me into this dark, empty, restaurant-type room with awfully common tables, awfully maroon table-cloth, and cheap plastic flowers in cheap white vases. Life couldn’t get any worse! but life couldn’t get any better either. I could hear and smell the strong, hot tea coming to me. The cook (or whoever he was) stood before me, thrilled at god alone knows what , asking me some awfully odd questions. I cooked up a lot of lies as answers but they seemed to satisfy him, so who was I to complain. The problem began when he got himself some tea too and sat right beside me and made himself at home.

I heard his life-story.

He was a chef (Well!!). He had been a chef for almost eight years. He was unlike other cooks/chefs who got their jobs without training. He had taken a three months course which had cost him 17,000 bucks per month. He then worked as a trainee in different hotels before being left alone to hunt for a job, or rather, left alone in this dump of a place. The other workers of this hotel had gone for a leave, Tihar I guess. No, he wasn’t going. He was the chef and chefs couldn’t afford to go. What if some customer turned up ( in spite of the condition of the country)? He didn’t live very far – 20 minutes’ drive. No, he didn’t go home very often. Not even otherwise.

He wished he had learnt computers. (A big sigh!) During the days when he was young people didn’t understand what computers were. He hadn’t even heard the name, hadn’t even seen one! Nowadays he saw one everywhere! He regretted the seventeen thousand bucks he had spent. Can you imagine how much seventeen thousand bucks meant during those days! and he had gone and spent it all for this dump of a place. If only he had learnt computers – he would have been a millionaire today.

He didn’t want money for the tea, so I gave him twenty bucks as a gift for Tihar. That he did not refuse. He wanted me to stay some more, I guess I was his scapegoat for the day, and maybe I would have stayed too but the computer at my office was waiting for me.

I worked on it straight for another four hours. I worked without moving too many muscles except those connected to my fingers and eyes and obviously I felt kind of rusted by the end of it. I just wanted to go home. Wanted to relax. Take it easy.

I slumped into my bed the moment I got home. Home! sweet home! Thoughts floated to me. Pleasant thoughts that had remained alien during the office hours. I shut my eyes, letting the feeling massage me. It was relaxing. Very relaxing. Very soft. I began to think of my friends and relatives. They flitted in and out of my mind. I wondered if they had sent me Tihar greetings, if the postman would come the next day with pink and light blue envelopes that held brightly lit cards. It was a nice anticipation.

Then suddenly I tensed.

Of course, they had sent me greetings. But it wouldn’t come through the post now. It would never come through the post. It would come, like my birthday cards had come, through the computer. The great, mighty computer, ruling not only my office hours but also my home hours.

I was tired again. Inhumanly. My enthusiasm for the greetings was gone but I knew I had to check for them anyway. It just felt like such a long long day.

I dragged myself to the study. It was an effort but the thought of the greetings held me.

Just before I pressed the power point I thought of the chef and there was nobody in this world I envied more than that chef who had never heard of a comp!!

Melamchi : Can we do without it ?

By Madan Shankar Shrestha

Almost a decade ago, when I was a water
supply engineer involved in a feasibility study for the Melamchi Water Supply Project, my friends and neighbours used to ask me, "Is there a way out of Kathmandu’s water supply problem?" I used to tell them, once Melamchi water is available in 2000, their entire water problem would be solved at least for the next ten years. They still ask me the same question; my answer remains the same, but with a time lag. I assure them that Melamchi water will be available in 2007 according to the present estimate.

Between then and now, the population of Kathmandu Valley has almost doubled. Without a substantial increase in water availability we have survived these long years with some hardship. Probably the same situation will prevail for the next six years until Melamchi water is available.

Melamchi water supply is a mega project. Such projects are bound to take years to complete in a developing country like Nepal where financial resources are very limited. We have to depend upon international donors and bankers such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank to fund such projects. It is natural for the donors to set some preconditions. These conditions are very reasonable, as they have to ensure that their financial support is properly utilized. Unfortunately, at times we fail to meet them. As a result the project never leaves the drawing board, as in the case with the much talked about Arun III project.

The recurring delay in implementation of Melamchi is due to one such condition implied by the donors, namely private sector involvement in managing water supply in Kathmandu Valley. The World Bank hinted way back in 1997 that they would consider further investment in Melamchi only if the government agreed to the privatization of Kathmandu water supply. The World Bank insisted on privatization mainly because the then management of Nepal Water Supply Corporation failed to live up to their expectations.

The government in agreement with the World Bank formed a high level committee to expedite the privatization process. It has been more than four years now. The privatization process has moved very slowly mainly because the multinational companies which are expected to take over have shown very little interest in coming forward. In fact whatever interest they had earlier, has unfortunately died down, as is evident from the withdrawal by two of the three short listed companies selected for submitting proposals. Attempts are once again being made to shortlist another batch of international companies. So far as many as 20 companies have shown interest.

As already stated, Melamchi is a multi-million dollar mega project. Several donors such as the Nordic Development Fund (NDF), Japanese Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Norwegian Agency for International Development (NORAD), World Bank, Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) have already pledged the much-needed funds for this project. These donors have their own set of rules on investment; ADB is putting in its best effort in coordinating these donors.

Melamchi water, once available, will be costly compared to the present water tariff rate. But if we compare it with the present hardship we are facing, the sleepless nights that we spend waiting for the taps to flow, the countless worries and the extra money we are spending in pumping water from the mains and increasing our water storage capacity, Melamchi water is not going to cost us much in the true sense. Above all, the rates will be many times below the present water tanker rates.

Kathmandu’s population is ever increasing, so is the water supply problem. Even if the population remains at the present level, we are not in a position to provide sufficient water as the shortfall in supply during dry months is as much as 50 percent. As almost all available sources inside the valley have already been tapped either for water supply or irrigation, a substantial increase in water production is not in the offing. We have been surviving all these years mainly by drilling our own shallow or deep wells, using dungedhara or some other alternative sources. The Water Supply Corporation’s tankers and private tankers have given some relief to those who can afford to pay the price; nevertheless it has helped to ease the situation a little.

Can we do without Melamchi? Probably we would be able to do without Melamchi if the population of Kathmandu remained static and at the same time we stored enough rainwater in big reservoirs by damming the valley rivers. But even if we dam all the rivers inside the Kathmandu valley it will add up to only half the volume of water we expect to receive from Melamchi. As of today both these solutions seem hypothetical. Damming of the rivers is technically feasible, but environmentally and socially not acceptable, as the dams would submerge large tract of valuable land. The once conceptualized Kodku water supply project failed to take off mainly due to this reason. Melamchi critics would say if the leakage of Kathmandu water supply is reduced, if whatever water is there in the system is managed properly Melamchi is not needed. With both these remedies the present service level can be improved to a great extent. But if we zero down the leakage rate, the system will gain only 30 million litres of water compared to the 170 millions and more we are going to receive from Melamchi. Reduction of leakage is very much needed be it with or without Melamchi, but is only a remedy, not a total solution to the Kathmandu water supply problem.

As is evident from the growth pattern of cities in neighbouring countries and elsewhere, Kathmandu will grow and the population would probably double in the coming decade. For a comfortable living in Kathmandu, Melamchi water should flow in. By most optimistic present day estimates Melamchi water would be available in 2007 if everything goes well as planned. Kathmandu cannot do without Melamchi.

(The author is the Deputy Executive Director of Melamchi Water Supply Development Board)